CIK62

Next 8 days averaging 70degs., or about 11degs. AN. 5-day cooldown (14th.-19th.) seems is all we will get. CFS looks warmer overall in the long range as it bounces around in it's own way. The 500mb heights will go from +190m to -60m then back AN over the next 15 days.

LR model test coming. EURO WEEKLIES have been, and still are BN in second half of Oct. GEFS looks similar. GEPS brief cool down then a gentle trough and near normal. The RWTT does not budge from AN till second week of Nov., just when the EURO is warming again. The RWTT does not flip around and seems more stable than the others over time, and thus could be missing a brief break that means nothing long term.

Next 8 days are averaging 71degs., or about 12degs. AN. Could be +11 by the 13th. at this rate. That would mean the last 19 days of the month must be under about +5, or we will set a new monthly record. I had 75.5degs. at 10PM last night. It is under 65degs. , now (5am). Still another 8 or 9 days of double digit 850mb. T's. By mid-month, 7C is normal, and it has been single digit since Oct. started.

Next 7 days averaging 71degs., or about 12degs. AN. RWTT still does not indicate any trough in the northeast until maybe the second week of Nov. I do not think any drop off during the 15th. to 19th. holds. Halloween costumes should be light colored and loose fitting. lol! RWTT has ridgeing here with big anomaly at that time.

Next 8 days averaging 69degs., or about 9degs. to 10degs. AN.

Tomorrow's THK was predicted to be 80m lower, two weeks ago on this output, so who knows if modest drop off shown for two weeks from now will occur.

The RWTT still does not show a BN period till the second week of Nov. We will be lucky to get two BN days through the 18th. on the most optimistic output intrepretation.

Next 8 days averaging 70degs., or about 10degs. AN.

Next 8 days averaging 71degs., or about 11degs. AN.. Incredibly, there could be another 12 days of double digit 850mb T's. The normal would be 9C down to 7C at mid-month. No reason to expect a BN day till about the 16th. Otherwise this looks like a runaway Dec. 2015, GW, future shock, type month during its first half. The real counterpoise comes Nov. 7-16 by the EURO and RWTT outputs.

The first 8 days of Oct. are averaging 71degs., or about 11degs. AN. 11 days of double digit 850mb T's incoming when the normal is 9C on the first already!? Yes, Tampa set records Sat./Sun. of 97 each, or +10, in concluding its warmest month ever. The RWTT shows no BN period here till second week of Nov. In fact, another back to back record Oct. to go with the Feb. fiasco of breaking the previous February's all time record, is possible. Remember Feb. 21 record heat and 500mb. height blowout. For us, +5/6 and for Tampa +1/2. Pacific NW is BN., for Oct.

Sept. ended at 70.7[+2.7]. It was #21 overall, but did much better than that based on low T's only. Not sure, but maybe near Top-Ten in that department.

Last day of Sept. averaging 66degs., or about 4degs. AN. Month to date is +2.9[71.0]. Should end month at +3.0[70.8]. Meanwhile, the first week of Oct. is averaging 71degs., or about 10degs. AN.

RWTT continues showing no BN period till second week of Nov., which looks stormy as air masses clash. AN wins apparently, since the next 90 look as AN as the next 30, say +3 to +5. The Halloween period has, and continues to show way AN. With an AN September about to be written up, the score for the past 60 months is: AN---39 BN---21...... including 20 straight AN months three years as the QBO skipped a beat or two. lol

Both the EURO and GFS have 5 '80-degree days' slated during the first 8 days of the month.

Remainder of Sept. averaging 68degs., or about 5degs. AN. Month to date is +2.9[71.2]. Should end at about +3.0[71.0]. The first 6 days of Oct. are averaging 71degs., or about 9degs AN.

Remainder of Sept. averaging 65degs., or about +3degs. Month to date is +3.1[71.6]. Should end Sept. at +3.0[70.9]. All 8 days averaging 70degs., or about 8degs. AN. The first 5 days of Oct. averaging 73degs., or about 11degs. AN. RWTT still insists no BN period coming till second week of Nov. Next 90 days continues AN.

More talk of storm surge barriers for NYC and environs: https://ny.curbed.com/2018/9/27/17908080/new-york-storm-surge-barrier-usace-climate-change

Remainder of Sept. averaging 66degs., or about 3degs. AN. Month to date is +3.1[71.8]. Should end month at about +3.1[70.8]. The full 8 days are averaging 70degs., or about 8degs. AN. Hot start for Oct. --- +12degs. during first 4 days.

The RWTT now runs to Christmas and has the next 90 days at a good +3degs. for the whole country , less the Pacific NW, which is normal. The only BN period around here is week 2 of Nov.

Remainder of month averaging 67degs., or about 4degs. AN. Sept. to date is +2.8[71.7]. Should end month near +3.0[71.0]. The full 8 days are averaging 68degs., or about 5degs. AN.

Reminder of Sept. averaging 69degs., or +6degs. Month to date is +2.8[71.9]. Should end month at about +3.4[71.3].

Remainder of Sept. averaging 68degs., or about 5degs. AN. All 8 days also 68degs. Month to date is +3.0[72.3]. Should end month near +3.7[71.0].

The RWTT output just keeps looking warmer and warmer over the next 90 days for the whole NH. Oh, and make sure your Halloween costume is light colored and loose fitting---looks way AN then, and has for a while on this model output.

Next 8 days(remainder of Sept.) averaging 68degs., or about 4degs AN. Month to date is +3.3[72 7]. Should end month at +3.5[72.0].