CIK62

Remainder of August averaging 81degs., or about 8degs. AN. Month to date is +2.0[77.5] and should end at +3.1[78.3]. The full 8 days is averaging 80degs., or 7degs. AN.

But the CFS which can be full of exaggerated systems near the EC, looks like a ***** cat during the next 30 days. High pressure predominates in eastern half of US. Best chance mid-month, weak system. Precip. should be near Normal for the month.

Remainder of August averaging 80degs., or 7degs. AN. Month to date is +2.1[77.7] and should end near +2.9[78.1]. This just makes the Top Ten. Summer to date, 84 days, is +1.05.

How about a contest to predict the next BN month in these parts? April is our last memory of a BN month, and the CFS does not even hint at one right now for the next 9 months, for a total of 13 straight. Surely this must be wrong! I was going to choose Feb. myself, maybe a SSW in Jan. will kickstart things. But the populated areas in the NH, as shown on the monthly summaries, seem Normal or Above with little blue ever showing.

NY AQUARIUM has been packed here in Coney Island since the new shark exhibit opened July 01. Rain did not stop the spectators from coming. Traffic Cops needed weekdays and weekends at the parking lot entrance/exit. Do not know about CI in general however. One Friday night fireworks exhibition was cancelled and some others poorly attended, because of weather uncertainties.

On the HMON model, LANE stalls and disintigtates in the next 48hrs. Eye does not reach any land around Hawaii.

Next 8 days averaging 79degs., or 6degs. AN. Month to date is +2.3[78.0]. Should be +3.3[78.3] by the 30th.

As constituted now, the EURO would add 1.7 degs. to the the month with its last 5 days averaging 84degs. Could get close to the monthly record. The GFS is even better, adding 2.7degs. to the monthly summary with its average of 90! during the period---with record 'high-lows' and new highs. Crazy stuff. Now read what I said at the start of this topic, in late July.

Area of moderate to heavy rain just went by to the west and southwest of CI, with a few gusts. Mostly missed, but there was a nice curtain of rain visible for 15 mins.[to 2:20pm] Ditto the above for Jersey City to upper Manhattan [3:30pm for next 15 mins.]as viewed from perspective of a high rise in CI.

Next 8 days averaging 78degs., or about 5degs. AN. Month to date is +2.4[78.1]. Should be +3.0[78.1] by the 30th. 850mb. T's reaching their nadir for the next 15 days tomorrow[10C]. A solid 5 days[8/28-9/02] near 18C, then induced troughyness takes it down to a near normal 12C in first week of Sept. RWTT still has the next 90 days at +2F to +3F, seemingly with few breaks. Really, just eastern Canada and Greenland look BN in the hemisphere during the period. CFS has weak system along EC during week 2 in Sept , leading to a cutoff 500mb low over us by mid Sept.

Next 8 days averaging 77degs. or about 3degs. AN. Month to date is +2.6[78.4]. Should be +2.7[77.9] by the 29th. Big HW starting Aug.27 and onward(Sept.6) as I mentioned at start of this topic? Even the conservative EURO has 90's, and the GFS for the third time this season loves the 100's. Records during this period range from 102 to 94.

Next 8 days averaging 75degs. or 2degs. AN. Month to date is +3.8[78.8]. Should be +2.7[77.8] by the 28th.

Next 8 days averaging 74degs. or just about Normal. Month to date is +3.4[79.3]. Should be +2.4[77.7] by the 27th.

Next 8 days averaging about 76degs , or about 2degs. AN. Month to date is +3.5[79.4]. Should be +3.1[78.2] by the 26th.

The RWTT does not show the trough reaching us during LDW as some have spoken about. We are protected by a +100m ridge. In fact the next 90 days look that way right now, as I have mentioned, on this RWTT output. We'll see what kind of penetrating power any trough does have here, soon enough. A TS, or several, could kick start a new regime for the N.East, with the -NAO they could create.

Next 8 days averaging 77degs., or 3degs. AN. Month to date is +3.4[79.3]. Should be +3.3[78.3] by the 25th.

Meanwhile back at the OK Corral it is 85.4 with a hazy sun.

Next 8 days averaging 78degs., or 4degs. AN Month to date is +3.2[79.2]. Should be +3.5[78.7] by the 24th. Not understanding talk about a pattern change becoming apparent by end of the month. CFS has a +200m ridge for us during the month of Sept. on average. Last days of Aug. and LDW look AN. In fact the CFS does not budge till Feb. with this +200m which is INSANE and obviously wrong, but by how much and when/where? The next 5 months can't be +5 to +10 can they??????

Heard on the Portland, Oregon radio station that today will be their 29th. 90-degree day, tying their all-time record. The RWTT has no BN period around here and elsewhere the next 3 months. Looks like a solid +2F to +3F for us. Hot finish to Aug. and a hot Labor Day weekend. We'll see. Always safer to predict AN, since norms are not updated quickly enough to capture a moving target, so we are always comparing to out of date numbers. 1981-2010 has a midpoint that is 23 years old. We could cut this to 15 years with annual updates.

Next 8 days averaging 78degs., or 4degs. AN. Month to date is +3.2[79.3]. Should be +3.5[78.9] by the 23rd.

Next 8 days averaging 79degs., or 4degs. AN. Month to date is +3.5[79.5]. Should be +3.7[79.4] by the 22nd. Sorry. Should have been in August Discussions.

EURO WEEKLIES give us two more weeks of wet and three more weeks of AN temperatures, then BN both ways. The RWTT has AN temps. all the way covered by the EURO WEEKLIES, however.

Next 8 days averaging 80degs., or 5degs. AN. Month to date is +4.0[80.0]. Should be +4.4[80.0] by the 21st.

Next 8 days averaging 79degs., or 4degs. AN. Month to date is +4.2 [80.2]. Should be +4.1 [80.1] by the 20th.

Next 8 days averaging 80degs., or 5degs. AN. Month to date is +4.7. Should be +4.8 by the 19th. Estimate 80.4 by the 19th., and above the monthly record---but with the rest of Aug. from then, having an average of about 73---another heatwave will be needed to set record.