CIK62

The first 7 days of July will average an astounding 86degs., 11degs. AN. This is a surplus of 77 degrees and represents half of what we need for the whole month to become the hottest July ever. Even if remainder of the month were Normal, we would still end up +77/31 about +2.5.

Can anyone check the length of the heatwaves in (NYC) 1991, 1993. I believe in 1991 there was a seventeen day period with just one missed 90 degree day or something.

There is no BN period for us till July 15-19. Last 10 days of the month seem like a back and forth battle between ridge and trough with no clear winner. The GFS Max./Min. Output for the next 10 days is still averaging a ridiculous 97degs.

JB keeps saying the Japaneese LR is calling for BN temps. But where? For precipitation we are on the border of AN/BN

Both EURO WEEKLIES and RWTT agree the next 3 weeks plus are going to be AN here. The EURO goes BN for late July and RWTT keeps it AN till August, is where they differ now. 'Troughy' yes, but heights stay AN anyway.

Rossby Wave Train gets rid of our friendly s.e. Canada trough during last 10 days of July into August---so get ready for longest HW of summer to coinside with highest average temps.

That rubber room and intravenous thorazine did not seem to calm and cool that GFS. Now it has an ongoing 8 day heatwave [6/17---6/24] with not one, but two 100 degree days to boot. Asbestos Suits will be at a premium lol! Meteorologists with a second degree in neurosurgery are discussing a lobotomy as further treatment. The GEFS is much lower all the way. I have been warning for some time that the Rossby Wave Train eliminates our sympathetic, southeast Canadian trough and has the whole hemisphere going N or AN (except for a little area in Siberia) through Sept.

And wasn't 1955 our hottest summer ever (at least JY+A) up to that time? Just a coincidence, I hope---there are many factors involved in any seasonal outlook. .

6/22 and onward: 92, 92, 95, 95, 97, 99, ......... For Dallas, Tx? No! It's for us---via the GFS. The GEFS says subtract a good 10 degrees from these so do not worry.

JB still has all his eggs in the basket of the 'Ash Wed. analog 1962' to our setup in early March. SDiM is not on board with this.

JB, never one to admit he is wrong, is now talking about March as he was about Feb. Rekindling the ghost of Ash Wed. NE of '62 and some strong 1984 event. He just skips by the warmest Feb. ever. If he blows it, I am certain he will merely move on to his hurricane forecast or something about putative global warming theories.

On the paysite. Probably will go public tomorrow AM. CPC output has caved too. Tomorrow we will see what they have to say, since meteorologists there lick their wounds on weekends or party for 48hrs. if they get it right.

NYNJPA waved the white flag and gave up on the remainder of the winter. A wrong way SSW does us in.

And they always made you feel like they are in your city. But the same ACCUWEATHER person can be followed from Boston-Philly-NYC at a different number of minutes after the hour/half hour. Really, for two of the cities they are only looking at a RADAR screen/computer terminal and not out their window! Back around Aug. 05, 1999, NYC was hit by 4 Thunder Storms in 2.5 hours, and WINS did not have a word about it in a "live" report I heard while on the beach, despite the fact I was already getting ready to flee from the imminent storm #1 that PM.

John Coleman of the Weather Channel passed away Jan. 20. He was 83. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/21/obituaries/john-coleman-co-founder-of-the-weather-channel-dies-at-83.html?ribbon-ad-idx=9&rref=obituaries&module=Ribbon&version=context&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Obituaries&pgtype=article

So complex, that the writer probably intends to use it support whatever Feb/Mar brings. Meanwhile JB has begun to skip by Feb. and now talks about Mar. saving things.

The CFS is either Clueless or Snowless for the next 33 days around here. It likes your timing.

SDi believes cold and stormy conditions return after Jan. 20th., while JB says Big Thaw. I do not see any conflict till Jan.28 with AN being interrupted.

Right. CMC gives us 8". GFS is zippo.

Thanks for the summary graphics. That little patch of blue must be JB wishing upon a star his theory of combining the Pacific ACE with more traditional ideas is right. LOL! The first 7 days of Dec. will be +6, so a 42 degree surplus will have to be eliminated in the remaining 24 days to get back to normal, about -2. Will come down to last days of month which into the New Year may be AN again.

CFS looks like horror show right now for Jan. We have to hope this is wrong as usual. Based on 850mb. T: Days 1-10 mostly BN Days 11-27 exclusively AN Days 28-31 BN

CFS had one good 6BN 'Next 45 Days' run a few days ago, but its been AN since then.

Technically speaking, today was the first day of Climatological Winter and so a new winter banter forum should be started. It runs from Nov. 27 to Mar. 24 and represents the bottom quartile of daily mean temperatures which indicates the range should be all days with a mean T between 43-31 degrees. The bottom of the NYC winter comes in and around Jan. 24.

Once BN period starts near the Dec. 10th., it lasts till the New Year, when AN or just Normal temps. return---------probably muted by a hopefully large, thick snow blanket by that time. I have not seen the 'Next 45' this cold>>>>>6BN in recent memory. I hope this is not a CFS headfake. Also since next 2 weeks look to be +5, the period after the 10th. would need to be 11BN to finish 6BN!. FANTASY TERRITORY