CIK62

My prediction for August is +2 to +3. In fact my prediction is the same for S,O,N,D. Sneaky things may happen with change in wavelengths during the winter. The period Aug. 21 to Sept. 05 record heat for the time frame and a TS to boot. Support by RWTT, CFS and CANSIPS.

Remainder of July averaging 79degs , or 2degs. AN. Month to date is +1.4. July will end near +1.5. The full 8 days is 80/+3.

Remainder of July averaging 78degs., or +1. Month to date is +1.4 and should end near +1.4. The full 8 days are 79/+2. CMC is 5" for the next 10 days, and the GFS just 1". Yesterday, after a late start there was 10x as much rain here, as NYC. Torrential near 8:15PM. So these predictions really would not apply as a general total for the area, the way it might starting in October.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING JUST EXTENDED 3 HOURS TO 9:15PM.

Made it home after 3 hours on beach. Sun, Thunder, Dark Clouds moving in. Phone alarm just went off. Alert is FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR MY AREA. Looks like slow movers. Finally first drops after 1 hour.

RWTT still shows an AN August everywhere (except PacificNW) and makes it the most AN here. If models give in on the precipitation bonanza, it will be due to ridge over us that holds on and on. Luckily by late August average is down about 4 degrees, since a +12 period is showing for last week of August. I will be watching for a change in this output.

Remainder of July is averaging 80degs., or 3degs. AN. Month to date is +1.5. Should end July at +1.7. The full 8 days is 80/+3. STS/TOR threats seem like a powder puff, as most likely time of arrival is after sunset and PoP never reaches categorical, even for plain rain by LAMP. Going to beach will depend on my Nowcast as of 1pm. lol

82degs here., with streaks of blue sky mixed in with the varied clouds. Humidity must be 70% and felt worse with the sun hitting me while walking. The best weather now appears to be Sunday into late Monday, then a lather, rinse, repeat cycle. The period of lower PW and positive LI shifted from earlier runs which showed Friday PM to Sunday PM as OK. The EURO is under +3 for the next 10, while the psycho GFS is +9.

Remainder of July averaging 79degs., or 2degs. AN. Month to date is +1.5. Should end July at +1.6. The full 8 days are 80/+3. Our three main models are barely normal now for the next 10 days at 1"-2". [1.4" is Normal]

Remainder of July averaging 78degs., or 1deg. AN. Month to date is +1.6. Should end at +1.5. All 8 days are also 78/+1. For the next 10 days our 3 main models agree on 3"-4" here.

Latest RWTT output still shows the next 30 as AN everywhere in the US except where it is the most AN now---the PacificNW. Ditto the next 90 days. Portland, Oregon having a Chicago Heatwave 1995 type moment coming in to this week and for the week itself. Actually no end to it this month. Many w/o AirCond. in an area which averages cooler than our record cool summers.

Next 8 days averaging 78degs., or 2degs. AN. Month to date is +1.6. Should end July near +1.8. RWTT is HHH as I warned previously for August. No BN period shown for 5 weeks and our 500mbs. are the most AN for the whole country. Let's go for an 80 degree average August. lol. JB where are you?

Next 8 days will be averaging 78degs., or 1deg. AN. Month to date is +1.7. Should be +1.5 by the 31st. Seems if you throw away the first 5 days of July, the remainder of it will end up just Normal. CMC/GFS still have 5" to 6" over next 10 days. The PW may drop and LI may go + for 60hrs. around the weekend. Longer range the RWTT says we dry out and burn up in August. Tropical mischief near the 20th. We get the Ridge Treatment and PacificNW gets the trough. Then next switcheroo not till early Sept.

Next 8 days averaging 79degs., or 2degs. AN. Month to date is +1.9. Should still be +1.9 by the 30th. GFS/CMC are 6"---9" the next 10 days. EURO is 4". And you thought yesterday was tropical.

EURO WEEKLIES are AN Temps. for all 6 weeks. The AN Precip. holds up till Mid-August, then Normal. RWTT is screaming AN Temps. for the entire Northern Hemisphere during the next 90.

Next 8 days continue to average 78degs., or 1deg. AN. Month to date is +2.3. Should be +1.9 by the 29th. GFS is 2.5" the next 10 days, and the CMC is 4".

A Gale Warning would be needed if this run is believed. Mix down winds to 60mph. very easily on Sat. Evening and night. WELL AT LEAST THERE IS A GALE WATCH !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Issued To: Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm HEADLINE: Gale Watch issued July 20 at 4:01AM EDT until July 22 at 12:00PM EDT by NWS New York City - Upton DESCRIPTION: ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Gale Watch, which is in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday morning. * WINDS AND SEAS...East to southeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 10 feet on the ocean waters and 3 to 5 ft on Long Island Sound. INSTRUCTIONS: A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to 47 kt has significantly increased, but the specific timing and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider altering their plans. Issued By: NWS New York City - Upton (Long Island and New York City)

Next 8 days still averaging 78degs., or 1deg. AN. Month to date is +2.5. Should be +2.1 by the 28th. Both the GFS/CMC are 4" during the next 10 days, or nearly 3x normal. All this could continue for 12 or 13 days, which is the record for consecutive days with precipitation in NYC.

Since water seeks it's own level, blocking it at one point will just cause it to rise up somewhere else. When those so affected find out, they will demand an artificial barrier too. Therefore you will never come to any final conclusion. This is similar to building new roads, tunnels and bridges-----the more that are built, the more you need. As Robert Moses found out. No, the low lying areas that are vulnerable, will just be abandoned---when replacement costs get too high and new building codes too onerous.

RWTT for the next 90 days has the Northeast as the most AN, in an already, entirely AN lower 48. Precip. is Normal for the lower48, except the southeast and eastern Gulf. Nationwide heatwave for Labor Day period.

btw: What were the THK and 850mb. T at this same time---I assume you were referring to Feb. 21 (78 to 80) around here. Thanks in advance.

Next 8 days averaging 78degs., or 1deg. AN. Month to date is +2.7. Should be +2.2 by the 27th. CMC insane at 10" for the next 10 days. EURO is 4.5" and GFS is 2.5". With just over half the summer gone, NYC is averaging +1.0.

Yep, the EURO is 4.5" to 6.0" around here for the next 10 days. The jackpot is eastern PA. at 9". Meanwhile for that hybrid system, the EURO has 30-40mph. gusts for a while during Saturday night to early Sunday AM. The forecasts I have heard from local mets, is pooh---poohing this event.

Next 8 days averaging 78degs., or 1deg. AN. Month to date is +3.0. Should be +2.4 by the 26th.

Next 8 days averaging 78degs., or 1deg. AN. Month to date is +3.1. Should be +2.4 by the 25th. 7/22 --- 8/2 looking like a cloudout and rainout. The record for consecutive days with measurable precipatation is 12, and this would tie record---also set around this time of the year.