CIK62

Florence looking like a Whirling Dervish with choreographing by 'Sandy2012'. Lol. Just what the waterfront needs, a Cat3 Sandy. Real estate prices would plunge and none will ever again be able to afford coastal Flood Insurance w/o government bailouts. Play on word 'bailout' intended.

I just reviewed all the months available[59] on the Climo Summary site for NYC and the score was 38AN to 21BN. At one point we experienced 20 straight AN months! This should go to 41/21 before anything changes. Do not see how this is possible unless the Normal is a moving target. It must be updated more frequently, or a shorter than 30 year norm period be determined to get us closer to 50-50.

Yesterday had trouble holding 80degs. at this time. Today it has been 86+ for hours already. Wind more northerly today. GFS still dabbling with the 90's on last day of summer! I hated returning to school during heatwaves, or ending the term with them. No A/C in my public school here in Brooklyn{during my time there---this was true for many families at home too), just those huge turbine floor fans that flapped your hair and made it hard to hear the teacher.

There was significant snow during early daylight hours of Sunday, Jan.20, 1985, in Brooklyn at least, on strong NW winds and 11degs. It cleared and we set a -2deg. record Monday morning.

Next 8 days averaging 76degs, or about 6degs. AN. And then there was one! Only CMC shows Florence trapped now and forced westward to coast. EURO is out of picture now too.

Still struggling to reach 80 here. Row of semi-innocent looking cumulus lining up to the west of me. They mean no harm so far. Also, latest GFS took giant leap in the wrong direction with Florence. OTS and dissipating along 40N. Would need to do a 'Sandy' now. Have to settle for a homegrown coastal rainstorm on the 8th.-10th.?

Next 8 days averaging 77degs., or about 6degs. AN.

But the EURO-ENSMEAN, HMON, HWRF all have Florence dying in childhood, ie. at about 5 days old. LOL NAVGEM does have the storm living and healthy a week out, however.

The EURO caught the disease from the CMC which is very similar. The GFS is faster and farther east. But unless the CMC has been rejiggered, doesn't it have a bad track record with hurricanes? At any rate, we should expect some disturbance to be located between Bermuda and Cape Hatteras within 10 days with three globals showing something.

The next 8 days averaging 80degs., or about 9degs. AN. RWTT looks the same for the next 90 days throughout the NH. Just AN, where most people live. For us, +2 or +3 all the way, a little better than August, as the SD increases toward winter.

Second week of Sept. looks to have lots of tropical potential. While earlier GOM system looks small and puny on the EURO, and non-existant on the GFS, a second feature seems strong on both. It may be looking for a way west and north to the EC from the mid-Atlantic. Stand by for this item, or one or two other later attempts.

The first 8 days of September already averaging 79degs., or about 8degs. AN. Sept. would already be +2, if the rest of the month is Normal. The next 3 months on the RWTT are AN and unchanging so far for most of the populated NH. Look for Norway, Finland etc. to set more all time Sept. records. Oslo had all time hottest day at 95 in July.

August ended at +2.9[78.1]. This is a tie for ninth warmest with 1955.

Last day of August averaging 74(80/68), or 2degs. AN. Month to date is +3.1[78.3]. Should end at +3.0[78.2]. This is a tie for 8th. place. The full 8 days are averaging 80degs., or about 9degs. AN.

RWTT is unchanged for the next 90 days from the current arrangement of anomalies. SON is going to be +2 to +3 across the nation, except maybe the southeast, if something does not change. 90 will be possible till the astronomical end of summer, with bad luck. The first 90-degree day in Oct. in 77 years is more likely now than a cold winter.

Remainder of August averaging 80degs., or 8degs. AN. Month to date is +2.8[78.1]. August should end at about +2.9[78.2]. The full 8 days averaging 79degs., or 8degs. AN.

I have 88.5 at 1PM and the NYSIO is 31.5GW. This is 1.5degs. higher, and 1GW more than yesterday at this time. 90.0 at 1:40PM and the NYSIO is 31.7GW. 90.5 at 1:50PM>>>Semi innocent looking cumulus clouds to my west and southwest. Radar shows sea breeze type front along NJ coastline, about 30-50 miles south of me. Convective temp. today was suppose to be about 93, and many areas are past that. 2:45PM 93.0 31.8GW Clouds are doing nothing here. 3:30PM 93.5. 31 9GW

Finally back to 80 [8:30am] here, up from a low of about 78.

Remainder of August averaging 83degs., or about 10degs. AN. Month to date is +2.5[77.8]. Should end August at +3.1[78.3]. The full 8 days is averaging 80degs., or 8degs. AN. The summer[JJA] should end at about +1.47, or 1.1SD units AN.

As usual the EURO has an average high of 84 for the next 10 days, the same GFS run has 93. The GFS almost got its revenge today, however. Concerning the mid-Sept. period, the CFS has TS mischief on EC then, I believe. Highest official temp. that I heard was 98 at Tom's River, 3pm.

Feeling cheated here at just 85+. lol The NYSIO total output is approaching 30GW at Noon. I do not know what the record consumption is, but I do not think the system can produce more than 32GW, on its own. Comments? Update at 12:30pm I have 86+ now, and the NYSIO has exceeded the 30GW. You can check for yourself at: http://www.nyiso.com/public/index.jsp They are reporting all is Normal and w/o any warning flags, as of 12:30pm Update at 1pm. I have 87+ now. NYSIO reporting 30.5GW. Update at 1:15pm I have 88+ now. NYSIO reporting 30.8GW.

Sept. 15th. period still offering best chance for TS effects on EC and here via the CFS. Also second week of Oct. for the first real Fall-like weather outbreak.

Remainder of August averaging 82degs., or 9degs. AN. Month to date is +2.1[77.5]. Should end August at +2.9[78.1]. The full 8 days are averaging 78degs., or about +6degs. AN.

Remainder of August averaging 82degs., or 9 degs. AN. Month to date is +1.9[77.3]. Should end August at +2.8[78.0].

Remainder of August averaging 81degs., or 8degs. AN. Month to date is +1.9[77.4]. Should end August at +2.9[78.1]. The full 8 days is averaging 79degs., or about 7degs. AN. The RWTT still has the next 90 days with relentless heat (ie. AN). This goes for most of the NH, not just the US and 2/3 of Canada. I do not know what makes it tick and so I don't what it will take to change its output. Hope the CFS does not start showing the 5400THK line over Hudson Bay for Dec., as I commented 3 years ago.