CIK62

CFS is just 8BN 22AN on the next 30 Days. Worse, the 8 come all together (1/3-10) then instant replay begins till Jan. 27. JB used up his bag of excuses in today's video. If the CFS is right, he will be scraped off the canvas and brought to NWS University Hospital ER and be ready in time to spread rumors about a cool summer or talk about some wayfaring hurricanes. Lol. Only a 'suicide jockey', seeking fame would ever call for BN anything nowadays. The world has seen 408 istraight AN months globally. The area in red is twice that in blue each month. It takes hubris to think you can figure out ahead of time where those blue areas will be.

Last 4 days of Dec. averaging 46degs., or 11degs. AN. Month to date is +1.4[39.5]. Dec. should end at +2.6[40.3]. Hottest ever NYD coming? 64 predicted. EURO is a Trace over next 10 days. GEFS is about 50/50 on at least 3" by Jan. 13. No sub-freezing temps. till Jan.07, then maybe 2 weeks of winter. Really just 3BN days in the next 16 day period, showing up now. Next 45 look +5. JB thrown to the canvas and held for the count of 3. 1,2,3---Your're Out!

Remainder of Dec. averaging 43degs., or about 8 degs. AN. Month to date is +1.2[39.4]. Should end Dec. about +2.3[39.9]. All 8 days are averaging 44degs., or about 10degs. AN. EURO lost its 8" snowstorm [of 1/03], and is back at No Snow for the next 10 days. GEFS is 55% chance of 3" by the 12th. I am looking forward to the day that they start using atmospheric models to predict the economy and stock market. Really, all this force fitting of analogs and antilogs, changing analogs each week etc., is getting us nowhere. I speak of JB of course. Ridge over Bahamas and Carr. stays put till the 8th., when it gets shoved over the GOM.

Last 6 days of Dec are averaging 41degs., or 6degs. AN. All 8 days averaging 40degs. Month to date is +1.1[39.5]. Dec. should end at +2.1[39.9] EURO is No Snow for 10 days. GEFS is 40% chance of at least 4" by the 11th.

REMEMBER? One year ago today, temps. went below 32*, and then stayed there for 14.5 days and nights, including a blizzard like snowstorm. A mere memory is all we got for this same time frame now.

Remainder of Dec. averaging 42degs., or 7degs. AN. All 8 days also averaging 42degs. Month to date is +1.1[39.6]. Should end Dec. near +2.5[40.2]. EURO is 1" of Snow for the next 10days. The GEFS is better than 50/50 on at least 4" of Snow by Jan. 10. Looks like we are going to have that '1 out of every 15 Decs.' that has No Snow.

EURO WEEKLIES have winter beginning Jan. 03 onward. Does not seem too spectacular however. In Jan. we could get away with it and have a snowstorm anyway if the Teleconnections/MJO conspire and the SSW gives us some BN air on our side of the NP. Next 30 on the CFS is 19BN 11AN But just in case we get the BN air only........does anyone have a list of major snowstorms around here that have occurred with bad Teleconnections/MJO? Thanks in advance.

Next 8 days averaging 39degs., or 4degs. AN Month to date is +1.0[39.6]. December should end at +1.8[39.5]. EURO is 1" of Snow immediately, then nothing for the next 10 days. GEFS is 50/50 on at least 5" of Snow by the Jan. 10. Just wet here and 40degs., ---5am

FWIW, since I have been following this for a week anyway, the next 30 day breakdown from the fickle CFS is now 21BN 9AN. This is the best 30 day outlook yet, but of course we have lost a week of potential cold since I started this.

Next 8 days averaging 41degs., or 6degs. AN. Month to date is. +0.8[39.6]. Should be +2.2[39.9] by the 31st. EURO is 5" of Snow for the next 10 days. This seems odd since the EPS has AN 850mb T's all the way. GEFS is 50/50 on at least 5" of Snow by Jan.09.

Next 8 days averaging 44degs., or 9degs. AN. Month to date is +0.3[39.3]. Should be +2.4[40.6] by the 30th. Yesterday was a +18 day as I had predicted over a week ago. I said we could be greeting winter with a +20 day. EURO is 1" in the next 10 days. The GEFS is 50/50 on at least 4" by Jan. 08.

I don't understand the talk about snow, when we barley get below 32 at any time. The next 7 days are averaging 43degs., or 8degs. AN, and none of the seven are BN. The time to talk snow is when the highs are slated to be near 32 for a few consecutive days. Nov. was a curse with its surprise 6.4" snow and 15deg. low for the month. I said it before--- these landmarks could hold for the winter season w/o setting any new records.

Next 8 days averaging 44degs , or 9degs. AN. Month to date is -0.5[38.6]. Should be +2.3[40.2] by the 29th. Yesterday was the last day for BN this month (on a monthly basis). EPS has 1" of Snow for the next 10 days. GEFS has a 70% of at least 4" by Jan. 06. Currently 55, Rain/Fog here, nearing 6am.

Good News on this travelling 30-Day Outlook I have been keeping track off since Sunday>>>>>>>>>>>> CFS breakdown for the next 30 days is now 20AN 10BN. If Dec. finishes AN, the last 63 months would have a similar 2:1 ratio, 42AN 21BN. 12/17 Update: About the same at 22AN 8BN, but we would have lost another winter day or two, if this is right. Accuweather has pushed the sustained cold into Week 3 iof Jan. 12/18 Update: 20AN 10BN 12/19 Update (liberal interpretation on behalf of BN): 17AN 13BN 12/20 Update: 16BN 14AN !!!!!!!!!! A nice switchero. 12/21 Update: 22AN 8BN This is hopeless. The cold will always be a month away. Accuweather sounds like it is giving up on Jan.,, and talks about a second SSW that might do something before the sun gets too high.

Next 8 days averaging 45degs., or 10degs. AN. Month to date is -0.9[38.4]. Should be +2.3[40.4] by the 28th. EPS back to No Snow for the next 10 days. GEFS is 40% on at least 6" by Jan.05. December is being sacrificed to the weather gods. We should get their blessings again promptly with the New Year. If the LR Models are wrong, we can start using them to predict the economy and stock market movements. Lol.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>GALE WARNING NY HARBOR AREA This is an important message from NY Alert Issued To: New York Harbor HEADLINE: Gale Warning issued December 19 at 3:26PM EST until December 21 at 6:00PM EST by NWS New York City - Upton DESCRIPTION: ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY... The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Gale Warning, which is in effect from 1 AM to 6 PM EST Friday. * WINDS...Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. INSTRUCTIONS: A Gale Warning means sustained winds or frequent gusts of 34 to 47 kt are expected or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>FLOOD WATCH NYC HEADLINE: Flood Watch issued December 19 at 3:21PM EST until December 21 at 5:00AM EST by NWS New York City - Upton DESCRIPTION: ...FLOOD WATCH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a * Flood Watch for portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York, including the following areas, in southern Connecticut, Northern Fairfield, Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven, Northern New London, Southern Fairfield, Southern Middlesex, Southern New Haven, and Southern New London. In northeast New Jersey, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic, and Western Union. In southeast New York, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northeastern Suffolk, Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Northern Westchester, Northwestern Suffolk, Orange, Putnam, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland, Southeastern Suffolk, Southern Nassau, Southern Queens, Southern Westchester, and Southwestern Suffolk. * From late Thursday night through late Friday night * An area of low pressure moving up the spine of the Appalachians Thursday into Friday will result in a widespread 2 to 3 inch rainfall across the region. The rain could be heavy at times, especially late Thursday night into Friday. * The heavy rain will result in the potential for flooding of urban, low lying, and poor drainage areas, as well as minor river flooding on fast responding streams. In addition, flooding concerns could be exacerbated along the coast if the heaviest rain coincided with the Friday morning high tide. INSTRUCTIONS: A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. Issued By: NWS New York City - Upton (Long Island and New York City)

Next 7 days averaging 47degs. now, or about 11degs. AN. I predicted the 21st. would be a +20 day a week ago, and this is holding up.

Next 8 days averaging 44degs., or 9degs. AN. Month to date is -0.8[38.6]. Should be +2.2[40.2] by the 27th. EPS is a trace for the next 10 days. GEFS is 60% for at least 5" Snow by Jan. 04. 27 here at 6am.

Just received an E-Mail that AccuWeather 'Weather Forums' is terminating for good as of today. Might get more crowded here. Long LIve American Weather!

So Judah Cohen is on a new tack. He was so sure of his snow-cover ideas. I hope he has it right now. All I get out of any article like this is that the next card out of the deck may be the 'A of Spades or the 2 of Clubs'. If you want to know for certain---Mark the Deck!. But noone knows what marks the atmosphere has put on itself this year or any year. I don't mind waiting, when I know what I am waiting for. Some meteorologist's or climatologist's prediction will be right for this season, and that person will be the new 'guru'of the atmosphere', just like on the Business News channels. LoL.

Next 8 days averaging 43degs., or about 8 degs. AN. Month to date is -0.7[38.9]. Should be +2.1[40.2] by the 26th. GEFS has all 5-Day Travelling Periods AN for the rest of the year. EPS has a trace of snow over the next 10 days. GEFS is 50/50 on at least 2" by Jan.03.

The Worst Weather Events 2018 on a World Wide basis: https://247wallst.com/special-report/2018/12/10/worst-weather-events-of-2018/?utm_source=247WallStDailyNewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=DEC132018a&utm_campaign=DailyNewsletter Gotta love photo with No. 7 on list.

Next 8 days averaging 44degs., or about 9degs. AN. Month to date is -1.0[38.7]. Should be +2.3[40.5] by the 25th. EPS has 1" Snow for the next 10 days----but that has already happened. GEFS is a 75% chance of at least 2" by Jan. 01. With the current GFS, this month is going to end up at +4 or worse. Awful look. Someone is going to get a 70* day late in the month, when even 40 is AN, with this ugly run. The RRWT isn't even initialized properly and says it is BN now and for the rest of Dec. Getting more BN in Jan. Crazy stuff.

CFS breakdown for the next 30 days is now 20AN 10BN. If Dec. finishes AN, the last 63 months would have a similar 2:1 ratio, 42AN 21BN. 12/17 Update: About the same at 22AN 8BN, but we would have lost another winter day or two, if this is right. Accuweather has pushed the sustained cold into Week 3 iof Jan. 12/18 Update: 20AN 10BN 12/19 Update (liberal interpretation on behalf of BN): 17AN 13BN

Next 8 days averaging 43degs., or 7degs. AN. Month to date is -1.3[38.6]. Should be +1.6[37.2] by the 24th. EPS No Snow for the next 10 days. GEFS is 40% chance of at least 3" before the year ends. The GFS itself offers absolutely nothing but a surprise gift that fits under the Christmas Tree or makes it white just before the ball drops on the year.