hawkeye_wx

You are right about that lead piece of energy and its strength having an influence on the main storm. However, also check out the GFS 500 trend to see the main energy going from tucked under the Hudson Bay gyre to holding farther west and able to be suppressed by that lobe crashing down from the nw on Saturday.

The GFS has been slowing the main energy in recent runs, trending toward the euro. If the main energy is not quick enough to sneak underneath the Hudson Bay gyre(previous gfs runs showed this), it'll tend to be suppressed more, like the euro.

12z UK is very similar to the euro.

Ryan Maue tweeted the 12z euro 144 hr map. That sure looks familiar.

The 12z FV3 is about as good as it gets... a series of snow events and reinforcing cold through the end of the run. That would make a lot of us forget about the first half of winter.

If we get a bunch of cold, dry power on top of the current snow, with strong wind, good luck measuring.

I finished with 4.8" from 0.46" liquid. Considering I was expecting 2" early yesterday, I'm quite happy. I still want to see some heavy snow rates, but this was a nice light to moderate daytime snowfall. When the wind is light enough to use my snow boards, I like to clear one or two of my boards in the 8-12 hour range, depending on how long the snow is expected to last. I don't clear every 6 hours, even though that is acceptable, because it feels like I'm cheating. For this storm, my uncleared main snow board finished with 4.5" while the boards that were cleared halfway (~8 hours) finished with a combined total of 4.8".

When the wind is relatively light, I use a few snowboards in the open part of my enclosed backyard.

This. Plenty of times during storms with ten hours of 0.5"/hr snow I've thought, "Yeah, this is nice, but give me some heavy snow." However, this is the first real snow I've actually seen fall this winter so I'm loving it.

Up to 4.1" here, still snowing at 0.5"/hr. I never even considered more than 4" a possibility.

There's a report of 14.5" southwest of Ottumwa in Iowa.

The better northward surge of the moisture helped a lot of people on the forums. There are lot of members in the Lincoln-Omaha-Des Moines-Cedar Rapids-QC-Chicago corridor. While we won't see any heavy snow, I'm certainly satisfied with the daytime light-to-moderate 4-incher.

At 1pm I measured 3.1". More decent bands have filled in after a lull a couple hours ago.

Up to 2.3" here.

I'm at 1.8" at 9:30am. It's nice to finally see some snow again in daylight. I just wish the rates were better. It's only coming down at about 0.3"/hr.

The trend this evening is quite positive. The dry air feed is backing off compared to some earlier model runs, especially the HRRR. The dry dip into east-central IA is being replaced with a decent moisture surge. I was expecting 2", but now it should be 3", perhaps 4" with a bit of luck.

And now the euro has the Missouri-Ohio Valley biggie next weekend. Wash, rinse, repeat.

12z UK... wetter farther north.

The models are settling on ~0.20" for Cedar Rapids. The dry air is really going to push back against the moisture around here. The GFS has really sharpened the north edge, which should barely get north of CR. If the dry air is more robust than expected, CR could easily drop down to <1".

The 00z euro ticked south for my area and now the 12z euro jumped even farther south. The euro went from most bullish to driest for CR.

I'm tired of, seemingly, 90% of our snow events dumping their loads in the middle of the night. As I get older, I just don't feel like getting out of bed at 3am to look at snow in the street light. I want to see beautiful snowflakes pouring down in daylight.

In addition to the farther north surge with the moisture, it's equally great that models are slowing the system so at least half the snow falls during daylight.

Tuesday 12z euro

I picked up 0.63" of rain overnight into this morning.