Obviously, we won't know how all of this will play out until it does, but my biggest fear continues to be the economic devastation we are inflicting on the country. If this goes on for more than a few weeks, it could get very bad.
It appears a progressive northern stream will keep much, if not all, of the active weather and precip south and east of the upper midwest over the next couple weeks. The only thing to look forward to is a mild weekend.
Models are now focusing on the lead system, tracking it a bit farther north. Unfortunately, while we are pretty cold now, the cold will be gone when the lead system arrives.
Models show a potent system streaking into the nw part of the region on Sunday. Southern Minnesota looks like the bulls-eye. The system then weakens as it heads east into the lakes.
For several days, the GFS has been hinting at a potential system as we approach mid month. The Euro is finally catching on. This morning's run has a widespread snow-to-mix overrunning event, not unlike the one we experienced a couple weeks ago.
What the GFS is showing this morning will probably vanish on future runs. It feels like a flukey run. Models are generally just showing a strong cold front sweeping through the midwest. This is the first model run that shows a flattening of the fropa with a nice wave or two riding along the front. I'd have to see more models doing this, and stick with it, before I'd get excited.
Will the warm flip back to cold again(and then back and back and back) or is the warm going to stick?
Last winter lasted five weeks. Maybe this winter will last two weeks.
All the models (minus the ICON) are going north this morning. The midnight Euro, plus the 12z UK and Canadian have snow through southeast Iowa.
Here's the Canadian.