hawkeye_wx
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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
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We are getting some rain early this afternoon. It's not much, but it's nice to see some again. I won't have to water the grass seed today. We will not have much of a fall foliage season this year, thanks to the derecho. The trees that were able to remain standing were thrashed and thinned out. The remaining leaves are not in great shape, especially on the west-facing sides of trees.
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The trend is to keep Beta in the 990s, at best, move inland, and fade away. A few models drift a low back over water a bit, but it's very weak.
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Now the GFS touches the coast of Texas, then drifts back out over the gulf where it meanders and fades through day ten.
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1000 mb is the pressure found by recon.
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Recon has found the center a fair bit farther east and north than the NHC 4pm advisory. This could make it more likely it'll come to a halt before reaching the Texas coast. Edit: I just realized there could be an elongation farther southward. Let's see what recon finds. Edit: Nope, that was the center... nothing farther south.
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The Euro track looks very similar to the GFS, except weaker and slightly inland rather than slightly offshore.
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12z UK is weaker (than 00z) and gets the system right up to the Texas coast, but still then tracks it east into the open gulf where it strengthens.
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Ok, Beta it is. That's a bit disappointing because Alpha is a better name. Instead, Alpha gets wasted on some stupid subtropical piece of junk near Portugal.
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12z GFS is stronger (low-end cane), throws on the brakes just barely offshore, really rakes the coast of Texas with torrential rain as it drifts north and then northeast along the coast.
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When TD22 is upgraded, it will be named Alpha. Wilfred was just used by the system in the eastern tropical Atlantic.
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00z UK keeps it farther off the Texas coast, has it becoming a strong hurricane (962 mb and falling) as it heads eastward.
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The HWRF and HMON keep it sheared and weak. The euro has a more solid system.
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The general theme from the models is a lift north for a couple days, followed by a turn to the west and track to near the Texas coast, followed by a stall and turn back east.
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More rain overnight and this morning has boosted my weekly total to 6.12". Much of this rain has soaked into the soil, so the rivers across eastern Iowa have barely risen at all. This is how you end a drought.
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The rain just keeps on coming here in eastern Iowa. I've received another 1.21" so far today. My weekly total is up to 5.05".
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Assuming we get another inch of rain through Saturday morning, our drought should be finished.
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I picked up another 0.63" today, boosting my weekly total to 3.84". Tomorrow looks like another washout.
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The 12z Euro has Rene meandering around just north of the MDR, which leads to the new system getting sucked up into the weakness, so no threat to the Caribbean.
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12z GFS has a rapidly-strengthening hurricane in the eastern Caribbean in a week. I noticed last night's Euro had the system there, but much weaker.
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It had looked like there could be a significant break in the rain today, but models underforecasted this new disturbance lifting northeast across the region. It's not heavy, but it will keep the rain going for much of the day.
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My 4-day rain total is 3.21". Models suggest another 1+" through Saturday.
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Another cluster of cells this evening boosted my 2-day total to about 2" and my 3-day total to 3".
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1.23" here overnight. Over 2 inches fell in some locations.
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The top of the sister street where it meets the main avenue. Across the avenue is a dumpy mobile home area. Many of the big, old trees in that area look like the ones in this photo. Many of the crappy homes got ripped up, too.
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Looking down the next street... our sister street.
