hawkeye_wx
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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
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Once again, the Euro re-develops Eta in the nw Caribbean and turns it east, then slams on the breaks, bombs it out, and tracks it n/nw through the Caymans.
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Satellite shows new clearing of the tiny eye over the last 30 minutes. We need a recon in there. Why can't they just send a different plane in there?
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NHC is going with 120 mph, 957 mb at 1pm.
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Over the last 30+ minutes, the 1-minute meso loop is showing eye shrinkage and even colder tops immediately surrounding the eye.
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Apparently, the midday recon got canceled as well. The schedule had it in the storm late this morning. Ugh.
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I think the NHC recon schedule says the new plane would leave around 15z, but it is now 16z and Tropical Tidbits has no new recon listed.
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A satellite page I like to use is COD (College of Dupage). Their non-meso loops are every 5 minutes and update to within 5 minutes of real time. Their meso loop is 1 minute and updates to within 1 minute of real time. Tropical Tidbits has more of a delay. COD meso satellite loop
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The 1-minute meso satellite for Eta is back.
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Someone at NOAA just bleeping removed Eta from the 1-minute meso satellite loops. They need to get it back ASAP.
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Estimated 10 mb drop in 2 1/2 hours.
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This thing really appears to be bombing.
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The eye is really popping. The pressure is certainly <970 mb now. The next recon is scheduled to be in the storm later this morning.
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Models continue to do some funky stuff with Eta in the long range. The Euro is no longer moving it into the Pacific. Instead, like other models, it moves into Central America but then sneaks back into the Caribbean near Belize. It then snakes around the nw Caribbean, turning into a strong hurricane again.
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992 mb officially (992 mb w/ 8 kt wind) Last night's 00z HWRF had it nearly correct at midday Sunday. That run had it down to <940 mb by landfall.
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Yeah, it's clearly stacked and wrapping up now.
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The 12z run of the HWRF is the first run to keep Eta over water, with just a brief touch of the coast, before turning northeast toward Cuba.
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We finally have some nice core development this morning. The NHC site has a recon plane scheduled for early this afternoon.
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Haiyan was on its own level. I sure wish they could have gotten a recon plane in there. -
The surface center is running out ahead of the mid-level center a bit.
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NHC says TD advisories will likely begin later this afternoon.
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I read that any Greek name would be retired as "Zeta 2020" and the name Zeta would continue to be used in the future.
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Amped is probably right about the convective blob north of the center on the GFS messing with the future track. The Euro continues to simply plow this system across Central America.
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The latest Euro has even more development in the nw Caribbean after Eta moves into Central America.
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987 mb this pass.
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It seems the new convection is going to have to pinwheel around the center for several more hours before the pressure responds.
