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hawkeye_wx

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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx

  1. hawkeye_wx
    The op Euro's pattern (last couple runs at least) looks interesting at day 10. It has a reloading trough in the west, arctic air pouring into the northern CONUS, and gulf moisture beginning to return.
  2. hawkeye_wx
    Down to 50% for 6" here according to the Euro. 6" is the line between moderate and big storm here, so I'd like to get at least that.
  3. hawkeye_wx
    Yeah, I'd say Chicagoland is locked in.
  4. hawkeye_wx
    GFS still out to lunch. This is the look of a broken model. Barely any snow at all north of the low while all other models have widespread snow.
  5. hawkeye_wx
    My area needs the east and north trickle to stop. We're still ok for now, with plenty of support for several inches.
  6. hawkeye_wx
    That suggests a lousy ratio (<10:1) along the southern part of the heavy band.
  7. hawkeye_wx
    00z Euro - A couple changes. First, the snow doesn't extend into western Iowa like last run. Second, the snow band tracks more eastward compared to the ese track on the 12z run. The snow is really going to be dumping when the precip shield initially blows up. The Euro (and probably other models, too) has 6-8" falling from Iowa into Illinois between 00z and 06z.
  8. hawkeye_wx
    Garbage thermals likely mean the GFS can be ignored.
  9. hawkeye_wx
    00z NAM
  10. hawkeye_wx
    I don't think so. The late December biggie here (8.5") was on top of grass. Throughout January, particularly from central to western Iowa, there has been significant melting in between storms. Des Moines has hit 40+º eight times this month. SW Iowa was in the low 50s, with bare ground, before this last storm. My snow pack had fallen to a couple inches before the recent series of snow systems.
  11. hawkeye_wx
    It's rare to get a big snow here on top of an already-existing solid snowpack. This week it may happen twice.
  12. hawkeye_wx
    The Euro is very close to the UK over here, but the UK takes the snow band east while the Euro east-southeast.
  13. hawkeye_wx
    Euro is farther north with the rain initially over here.
  14. hawkeye_wx
    The GFS is certainly focusing the moisture/energy east/southeast of Iowa... different than the UK and Euro.
  15. hawkeye_wx
    What does the GFS ensemble avg show for total liquid precip? That would be good to know over here if the GFS is simply too warm.
  16. hawkeye_wx
    UK
  17. hawkeye_wx
    GFSv16 - Also a bit farther north like the op GFS. Considering the Euro has all snow north of the IA/MO border, I don't see Cedar Rapids/Iowa City getting rain out of this. I've lost count of the number of times the GFS had my area getting rain this winter and we ended up with all snow.
  18. hawkeye_wx
    This is looking good for Iowa. The one thing keeping this good storm from being an epic storm is the quick decay of the snow intensity north/northwest of the low following the initial heavy WAA burst.
  19. hawkeye_wx
    Definitely farther south from the latest Euro.... much less snow from Cedar Rapids to northern IL, but perhaps finally a good one for central IL to Indy?
  20. hawkeye_wx
    The GFS has a perfect low track for Iowa, but it's so warm it has rain up here. It looks wrong. All other models are colder with all snow for Iowa.
  21. hawkeye_wx
    I'm going with 6.5" here. I may be able to add another tenth or two before it ends. Considering the pretty underwhelming first half of the night, with multiple periods when the snow stopped completely and the lousy snow rate even when radar showed brighter returns over me, I'm happy with 6.5". We actually got some of our best snow this morning when I was out blowing.
  22. hawkeye_wx
    Wow, you have more than I do.
  23. hawkeye_wx
    Models are suggesting more big potential action by day 10 as another major trough ejects from the west.
  24. hawkeye_wx
    Des Moines for the win, one more time? The heavy band quickly weakens as it heads northeast from this and hits the block.
  25. hawkeye_wx
    Madison is looking pretty good. Plenty of model runs had them getting left out completely. Same goes for Waterloo, IA.
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