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hawkeye_wx

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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx

  1. hawkeye_wx
    The wind over-performed here yesterday when the strong front moved through. The Cedar Rapids airport gusted to 54 mph.
  2. hawkeye_wx
    A thin line of storms fired near Cedar Rapids early this morning. I received 0.23" and heard several rumbles. At this point in the season, any rumble could be the last until spring.
  3. hawkeye_wx
    Julia is getting that ready-to-take-off comma-shaped core this evening, but it's nearly out of time.
  4. hawkeye_wx
    Probably about 30º here this morning... 28º out at the airport.
  5. hawkeye_wx
    Yeah, it's trying to form a CDO, but convection continues to be pushed south as it attempts to wrap around to the north side.
  6. hawkeye_wx
    Looking at the west models, the point they really went wrong is Cuba. They had Ian continuing nnw across Cuba and even for a while in the gulf. Instead, Ian turned east of north as soon as it hit Cuba and it never stopped moving nne from there. I wonder why models could not see that turn.
  7. hawkeye_wx
    Models don't show Julia doing much for the next day or so while it's being sheared. Much of the strengthening occurs as it approaches the coast of Nicaragua.
  8. hawkeye_wx
    We should get our first light freeze tonight. I should be able to save part of the garden with sheets and row covers. Regarding the expanding drought, it feels like it will never rain again. This is Dubuque's driest start to autumn on record and many places aren't far behind. Every time I check the models it's a continuation of the endless dryness.
  9. hawkeye_wx
    It swung a bit farther west in the nw Caribbean, but ended up in the same location.
  10. hawkeye_wx
    It turned out that some of those early worst-case Euro runs from days ago, which showed Ian turning up into sw Florida, exiting into the Atlantic, then phasing with the tail end of the eastern US trough and moving into the Carolinas as a strong system, were totally correct.
  11. hawkeye_wx
    Officially 935 mb, per recon dropsonde.
  12. hawkeye_wx
    A new recon plane is about to take off, should get in there just in time.
  13. hawkeye_wx
    Looking at the IR meso loop, the presentation peaked about 30 minutes ago. Since then, some of the colder tops and lightning have faded a bit. Perhaps Ian has reached its max.
  14. hawkeye_wx
    139 kts flight level, 101 kts SFMR in the ene eyewall, the weakest part on radar, so the numbers makes sense. 937 mb, officially, per recon
  15. hawkeye_wx
    Second plane just found 143 kts flight level, 137 kts SFMR on the west side.
  16. hawkeye_wx
    The other plane just found 130 kts flight level, 111 kts SFMR on the "strong" east side, so the west side is stronger at the moment.
  17. hawkeye_wx
    137 kts SFMR in the west quad ("weak" side)..... major yikes.
  18. hawkeye_wx
    The pressure rose another 2 mb, to 954 mb, per the latest recon pass.
  19. hawkeye_wx
    There is still intense convection, with lightning, in the inner eyewall, so it will take awhile to complete the cycle.
  20. hawkeye_wx
    What I wonder is, with dry air from the trough gradually getting pulled into south and east sides as the storm approaches Florida, will the outer eyewall be able to strengthen enough to take over and finish the replacement cycle.
  21. hawkeye_wx
    Recon definitely found two wind maximums, with max wind overall less than earlier.
  22. hawkeye_wx
    It just spent several hours experiencing surface friction while moving over Cuba. The pressure will drop back down as it moves out over the open ocean.
  23. hawkeye_wx
    Satellite looks great, but the southern eyewall did just move back over water in the last 20 minutes. The pressure should respond once the inner core is full over water again and the friction is gone.
  24. hawkeye_wx
    This is a great site to follow the radar. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/KBYX/loop.html
  25. hawkeye_wx
    Ian made it across Cuba as well as it could have, but it still lost about 15 mb. Given the great structure, it shouldn't be difficult to re-deepen to where it was.
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