mahantango#1

Tomorrow's newspaper headline will read "Tribunal in Tamaqua"

Were counting on you!

Yes the barometer is dropping rapidly.

Up to 52 here with a thick fog coming off the creek here.

Event total since Friday I have .20

And all this rain talk for this weekend so far has fizzled out too.

It has got really foggy here in the last hour.

Dt is on board! Wxrisk.com ertpodsoSn6t86hfmt104um7t64mlf1c4m272clm1lh07hlm1f71h0g37i88 · in case you missed it.... Yes I know that if you look up on social media or on the Internet itself directly Winter forecast for 2024-25 you will see constant references to La Nina and how it always means a mild winter in the eastern US. As I stated in the WxRisk winter forecast that is not accurate. There is a huge difference between weak La Nina events vs Moderate or strong ones. The fact that other meteorologists on such as Climate Prediction Center (CPC) or TV stations or The Weather Channel or Weather Nation or ACCU- blunder etc either don't want to talk about the differences or don't know about the differences and use the same general boilerplate La Nina stuff… doesn't make it true. It just makes them lazy. The truth is that most meteorologists spend very little time working on any kind of beyond day 4 or 5. Mostly because when they want to undergrad School you couldn't do anything beyond four or five days and also it's because it's not their niche. (There was a recent comment from a meteorologist in the Richmond area who declared on his social media page that there is indication of any snow through the first 10 days of January). But this is what I do. I take the week to week (called S2S or sub seasonal) kind of forecasting very seriously. And just like baseball or fornicating the more you do it the better you get at it. I am not in any way declaring victory or a win. nothing has happened yet. I think the trend is going my way and many others agree. February could be a blowtorch. and who knows about march. It is possible that we may end up only having some cold in December and serious cold in January. But unlike the last several Winters we got ourselves a ball game boys and girls

I guess we'll stick with Snoop

Wxrisk.com deSosnptor67ii21ai19i20m0amh256acg7uc83tugalct17t74cmga6752g · ABOUT JAN 6 UPDATE AND BEYOND... RULE NUMBER 1 = weather models come and go. Sometimes the solutions beyond three or four days makes sense and sometimes they don't. BUT the rules the atmosphere on the planet Earth do not change. Ever. ..Models be damned. Ok? The solution offered by the early Saturday morning 0z run of the operational or regular GFS and the European model of taking the surface LOW JAN 5/6 up through the Ohio Valley the Eastern Great Lakes and up the St Lawrence Valley is essentially bullshit. IMAGE #1 explains WHY it is bullshit . Here at WxRisk I dont “DO” Bullshit. Of course that doesn't mean I am always right but the important thing here is at this stage is to look at the upper air patterns as opposed to the actual surface Maps. And when we do that -- as you can see an image #2 --- we see that the European Ensemble (EPS) handles the JAN 6-8 upper air pattern vastly differently than the operational run. . Also please keep in mind that there's several other chances beyond may or may not happen on January 6-8. Foe example JAN 10-12. including as I mentioned many times a prolonged cold pattern for much of January

this mornings weather discussion has left us like this:

Keep posting. Even though some of these 300hr maps won't work out I think most will enjoy them and the conversation of the weather. Eventually one time, one of these maps will become a reality leaving some on this forum unprepared.

Had .15 rain, thought we'd get more.

Might have to worry about freezing rain here later tonight. Temp is down to 30 already.

If you get out of drought status this weekend and Bubbler doesn't, I guarantee this badboy will show up under the cover of darkness in the 'ville to provide much needed relief. Maybe even a surplus in the 'ville!

I see i'm close to that freezing rain chance tonight.

Now your waiting on that yearly rainfall surplus at MDT to verify that Blizz is predicting.

Overnight low was 6 degrees warmer than forecasted last night.

36 for the high here, snow cover diminished dramatically today.

From yesterday: Decided to get some wintry pics this Christmas Eve before it gets warmer and melts the ice on the creek. It's been colder than what we think this December.

Merry Christmas everyone. It definitely is a white Christmas here. Half inch to and inch of snow still on the ground.

Wxrisk.com rSpeonsotd6itau9f9h6ua0hf2c4m955u8mcf7516a8c5121g37u14464g09 · ATTENTION ALL SICK TWISTED WEATHER FREAKS.... UPDATE ABOUT EARLY JAN COLD & EASTERN US SNOWSTORM THREAT.... I know to some it may seem silly or unwise to be speculating and talking about the event in early January. But that's how we learn and get more skillful . Those who are a long time followers of this page and website know that over the last 30 years it has become a clear that the big events when they happen are often detectable more than a week out. I am using the term Eastern us here because even though the data primarily shows this to be a Mid-Atlantic New England type of winter storm threat is still way too early to know for certain which portion of the Eastern us could get hit the hardest