mahantango#1

Blizz was probably in conference with the NWS.

A little over an inch of snow here.

I still got the vehicles frosted up from Friday night that never melted yesterday. And there is still some frost in the grass from Friday night also. The price you pay for living on the north side of the mountain.

Seems it's the same old story at CTP. Downplaying every winter event. But they're the meteorologists, so they should know.

I guess we'll know tomorrow morning.

It's time for answers.

Time to take em out. Put them out of commission!

Glad Canderson winds have abated.

I peaked at 30.97 now its on the way down.

And you were counting on a happy ending.

Wxrisk · Follow 6 min read · 5 hours ago ABOUT DEC 19–20 and DEC 22–23 EAST COAST THREATS . In this essay or blog post I will talk about the potential of two winter weather events coming up in the next 8 days across the East Coast. The first event has a higher probability than the second one. Since the middle of NOV the overall pattern across North America has been dominated by the West Coast Ridge configuration. When the Ridge on West Coast is amplified, it has been reaching into NW Canada and Alaska ( also known as the negative phase of the EPO). Thus has resulted in significant cold air outbreaks for the Eastern CONUS. However the Ridging on the West Coast of North America — no matter how Amplified- is not maintaining its intensity. The very active Pacific jet stream keeps attacking the Ridge and knocking it down which causes the cold air pattern to shut off and allows mild air to overrun the country. The result has been an oscillating pattern on the West Coast North American between Ridges and Troughs. Next week the Ridge on the West Coast is going to begin another amplification which will result in a significant cold air outbreak and the arrival of a new semi-arctic air mass cold front that will sweep across the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes on December 18 and reach the East Coast on December 19. Driving this front Southward is a large powerful Arctic HIGH that will drop southward from the Canadian Prairies into Iowa by Thursday morning. Image #1 shows the 12z and 18z Friday operational GFS model runs. At first glance this looks rather similar to the slow moving cold from that produce significant rains up and down the East Coast and snow in the mountains last Wednesday. But in this case the cold air coming in behind the front is a little stronger and as we saw the GFS is particularly aggressive with a flash over to accumulating snow in the spine of the Appalachian Mountains from NE TENN and far NW NC into upstate NY and northern New england. This seems like a reasonable solution — — but just because the model is offering a reasonable solution doesn’t necessarily mean it’s the correct one. The problem with the GFS solution is that there doesn’t appear to be any reason to think that the cold front is going to slow down like this and allow the cold air to catch up to it. Of course, the GFS could end up being correct but right now I am skeptical. This image shows the 500mb upper air level maps from the 12z Friday operational European and GFS As the map shows, the GFS is really amping up a piece of energy or shortwave in the base of the Trough on the East Coast on December 19 == which is why the cold front slows down and the cold air catches up to the front so the rain can change the snow. The European model also shows energy in the SE US but it is further to the east so any LOW that develops on the front will do so harmlessly out to sea. The second event has to do something developing after the cold air has arrived on December 20 in the days leading up to Christmas. This potential event has been showing up on some of the AI models as well as the operational GFS runs. The event also MIGHT occur a few days before Christmas and if it were to actually develop….IF.. it could produce a white Christmas for a lot of people on the East Coast especially away from the coast. This next image shows the 500mb map from the 12z Friday operational GFS valid on DEC 21–22. The model goes crazy with a strong piece of energy coming down in the northern jet stream that rapidly amplifies and closes off into a large closed UPPER LOW in western NC. Not surprisingly this produces a major East Coast LOW pressure area which for some locations would produce a significant snowstorm given the amount of cold air that will be in place on the East Coast. This solution is very different from what the European model showing. As much as I would like to get all excited about the big winter storm idea on the operational GFS models there are a lot of reasons not to be that excited about this possibility. First I cannot look for the life of me to figure out why this piece of energy coming down from northern Canada into the Midwest would suddenly close off into a gargantuan 500 cut off low in Western North Carolina on December 22nd. There is nothing in terms of any kind of blocking signature showing up on any of the upper air Maps the NW Atlantic Greenland or Eastern Canada which would cause this kind of amplification. Also the MJO — Madden Julian Oscillation — is going to be in Phase 6 which is not a good phase for East Coast winter storms during the winter months, even the fact that the current MJO is pretty strong it’s hard to overlook the fact that the MJO is essentially saying “hey GFS you are full of crap “ This image shows the major East Coast winter for DEC 22 based on the 12 Friday GFS model. Note here that the main surface LOW tracks just inland from SC to central PA which would bring rain to New England and NYC but snow in interior New England PA,. NY , then into western VA, western MD and WV. The Friday 18z operational GFS is just as bullish with the system. S at first glance you might think the consistency on the GFS model is fairly impressive so maybe something is going to happen. However the operational European and the European ensembles are saying no sorry GFS there is not going to be a big East Coast winter storm on December 22. there will be a coastal LOW but it forms earlier and the arctic front hasn’t arrived on the East Coast surface temperatures are way too warm. So in summary the impressive Solutions showing up on the GFS model for the December 19th cold front seems to be overdone. And it doesn’t have a lot of support from any of the models at this point. And the December 22 potential Big East Coast event really looks unlikely given the upper air pattern and given the fact MO is in Phase 6 which is history known for being anti snow on the East Coast Written by Wxrisk 9 Followers ·1 Following Follow

10.4 this morning.

One thing for sure, it's cold out. Today's high was 33, already down to 22 @5:33pm.

Meanwhile in the "ville

A delay to start your day is not in your best interest. They need water in the 'ville!

Are you trembling in your shoes? Or is it game on?

Don't piss off DT: Let me remind you about my standing policy here. The fact that I am posting on Blue Sky for the winter season doesn't mean I left Twitter / x -- still have the Twitter wxriskgrains account and occasionally I post winter weather information there. But in any event it doesn't require you to make a comment about blue sky or Twitter or Musk or politics or anything else. So don't do it -- because if you do I will ban you. If you want to talk to me about it privately… send me a FB message. But NO we are NOT to redo the last 6 months here. I am not going to allow ANYONE to do that so please don't. We COULD have some really winter weather coming up potentially significant for the holidays so just stop. if you challenge me on this you will lose Badly.

The Texans deserve those mild breezes of DuBois!

https://www.abc27.com/pennsylvania/hotel-prices-spiking-due-to-upcoming-psu-playoff-game/?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=socialflow&fbclid=IwY2xjawHHvv1leHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHY1C4NqKonZbVBqotzfYM3cnzTdTc-VLWVJR1-Z91mIy_UPd3zMxCfxTSw_aem_6D5z72ucUJCtbeBQRpu9tA

Creek responded to yesterdays rainfall. It came up about 2 feet.

1.21 rain today. Winds gusting to 30mph now.