mahantango#1

Yes I say your taking a good route there. You wouldn't want to be called out and slammed by DT for wishcasting.

My NWS forecast Sunday Monday says scattered flurries here.. So maybe DT for the win. JB said yesterday He expects the 2" line to run near I-80. I think this one is not going the way we want it to.

Wxrisk.com otnoeSsrdpi1ltmggf1c5ic003f6citf2gl0h6gfu05t264a5h93i4882ci2 · SURPRISE UPDATE... 0z Early Wed models Yeah like I am going to stay away.... The 0z z wed gfs model makes little sense... the snow ice doesn't even make it to far sw VA by 7am Monday Jan 6... this is much slower than last several gfs cmc and euro runs. It should be ignored. 0z WED EURO... what is important here is the consistency. This is now the sixth model run in a row of the European model all consecutive runs which really Hammer most of Virginia as well as West Virginia Northern Kentucky Southern Indiana and Southern Ohio with a significant not major snowstorm. As you see from the maps it comes in Sunday night in the Ohio Valley in West Virginia and the pre-dawn hours of Virginia from west to east. The new run keeps Richmond's temperatures even though it mixes over to sleet at below 32 degrees and then rapidly falls in the afternoon where it goes back to snow. But just north of Richmond Ashland for example stays all snow. As you can see from the snow map the models producing significant snows over 10 inches in some places in Charlottesville Fredericksburg Stafford Northern Virginia most of the Shenandoah Valley North of Lexington. More importantly the snow amounts have increased into the Washington DC metro area. But again the trend here is your friend. It's tracking due east not turning up the coast the least not on these model runs. If this hasn't changed by the time we get to Thursday morning and midday that's probably not going to.

Wxrisk.com otnoeSsrdpi1ltmggf1c5ih003f6citf2gl0h6gfu05t264a1393i4882ci2 · I AM OFF THE CLOCK UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAPPY NEW YEAR SICK TWISTED WEATHER FREAKS. No more updates until Wednesday evening. Just letting you all know. The maps and information I posted earlier are not a actual forecast for say. Just letting you know where things are trending. Today is Tuesday and if the data is right the snow will be in the Ohio Valley Sunday morning and moving into Virginia West Virginia Western Maryland by late Sunday evening. It is possible the track could shift for the north but I don't think that is likely given the massive block that is developed in Labrador and Greenland huge ocean low in southeast in Canada. What's the referred to as the 50/50 low. Also please keep in mind we are entering the heart of the winter season which continues with the climate change into March in most places. And just because some other YouTube clown is using the term Blizzard's or extreme historic cold doesn't mean that I am or some other meteorologist is. I know it can be confusing to the average person out there but we are not all the same. And we are not Jim Canmore youtube wannabes.

Pennstate is going to lose this game at this rate.

What is Pennstate doing? Looks like there collapsing.

I'm ready, Got the plow on the 4-wheeler, when it was warm the other week. Yesterday got the snowblower started and ready. Just not looking forward to extreme cold if it shows up here.

So this is the beginning of stick a fork in it winter?

Calling them now, the winners: Georgia Texas Oregon Penn State

28 here.

Tomorrow's newspaper headline will read "Tribunal in Tamaqua"

Were counting on you!

Yes the barometer is dropping rapidly.

Up to 52 here with a thick fog coming off the creek here.

Event total since Friday I have .20

And all this rain talk for this weekend so far has fizzled out too.

It has got really foggy here in the last hour.

Dt is on board! Wxrisk.com ertpodsoSn6t86hfmt104um7t64mlf1c4m272clm1lh07hlm1f71h0g37i88 · in case you missed it.... Yes I know that if you look up on social media or on the Internet itself directly Winter forecast for 2024-25 you will see constant references to La Nina and how it always means a mild winter in the eastern US. As I stated in the WxRisk winter forecast that is not accurate. There is a huge difference between weak La Nina events vs Moderate or strong ones. The fact that other meteorologists on such as Climate Prediction Center (CPC) or TV stations or The Weather Channel or Weather Nation or ACCU- blunder etc either don't want to talk about the differences or don't know about the differences and use the same general boilerplate La Nina stuff… doesn't make it true. It just makes them lazy. The truth is that most meteorologists spend very little time working on any kind of beyond day 4 or 5. Mostly because when they want to undergrad School you couldn't do anything beyond four or five days and also it's because it's not their niche. (There was a recent comment from a meteorologist in the Richmond area who declared on his social media page that there is indication of any snow through the first 10 days of January). But this is what I do. I take the week to week (called S2S or sub seasonal) kind of forecasting very seriously. And just like baseball or fornicating the more you do it the better you get at it. I am not in any way declaring victory or a win. nothing has happened yet. I think the trend is going my way and many others agree. February could be a blowtorch. and who knows about march. It is possible that we may end up only having some cold in December and serious cold in January. But unlike the last several Winters we got ourselves a ball game boys and girls

I guess we'll stick with Snoop

Wxrisk.com deSosnptor67ii21ai19i20m0amh256acg7uc83tugalct17t74cmga6752g · ABOUT JAN 6 UPDATE AND BEYOND... RULE NUMBER 1 = weather models come and go. Sometimes the solutions beyond three or four days makes sense and sometimes they don't. BUT the rules the atmosphere on the planet Earth do not change. Ever. ..Models be damned. Ok? The solution offered by the early Saturday morning 0z run of the operational or regular GFS and the European model of taking the surface LOW JAN 5/6 up through the Ohio Valley the Eastern Great Lakes and up the St Lawrence Valley is essentially bullshit. IMAGE #1 explains WHY it is bullshit . Here at WxRisk I dont “DO” Bullshit. Of course that doesn't mean I am always right but the important thing here is at this stage is to look at the upper air patterns as opposed to the actual surface Maps. And when we do that -- as you can see an image #2 --- we see that the European Ensemble (EPS) handles the JAN 6-8 upper air pattern vastly differently than the operational run. . Also please keep in mind that there's several other chances beyond may or may not happen on January 6-8. Foe example JAN 10-12. including as I mentioned many times a prolonged cold pattern for much of January

this mornings weather discussion has left us like this:

Keep posting. Even though some of these 300hr maps won't work out I think most will enjoy them and the conversation of the weather. Eventually one time, one of these maps will become a reality leaving some on this forum unprepared.

Had .15 rain, thought we'd get more.

Might have to worry about freezing rain here later tonight. Temp is down to 30 already.