Met1985

13 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Yeah down into the ground is frozen but the top layer would not be as it’s pouring the rain as I type this. Hard to overcome puddles. Just a caveat, I’m not one of those people who preach ground temps but rain to snow is hard to do most times and have a decent accumulation aside from a slush puppy. 

Oh yeah I hear yeah. Yeah its pouring the rain here also. Nice cool rainy day.

6 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

It will be really hard to get any sort of solid accumulation after 2 inches+ of rain unless it is coming down at a really good clip. 

Maybe but we still have some snow in areas believe it or not. The ground is still relatively cold with us having freezes the last several days. 

For our snow chances coming up the 6z NAM does not look as impressive because it delays the cold coming in so the totals are cut back a bit. The 6z GFS looks pretty good from what it had been showing.  Looks like a couple of slushy inches currently with the highest accumulation near Roan mountain and right along the boarder in the SW mountains. 

Although tonight's NAM looks much juicier than the GFS did at 18z .

Man the weenies are running wild in here lol. It still looks like we may see some snow from Friday night into Saturday morning but it does not look like much currently. 

28 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

PV split so it will go both ways (Europe and the US)

This is a wrong assumption.  We have had several PV splits that stay on the other side of the globe. This is always a worry when dealing with the PV.

1 hour ago, AsheCounty48 said:

I'm spending the evening on the porch with a glass of wine watching the sunset. I know we all want snow, but for now, this is honestly perfect weather while we wait.

I absolutely agree. Perfect weather currently.  Cold nights and average daytime highs. 

The 18z GFS is a bit juicier this run for some snow especially across the southern mountains.  Still a ways out though but so far so good.

3 hours ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Anyone checked out the FV3 for the end of the week? Doesnt really have much support but it goes bonkers snow wise considering the setup.

What site do you use for the FV3?

Also I would take note that this pattern is not a bad one to be in currently.  I have seen it a lot warmer than this and the 7 day forecast looks really good actually.  We are tracking some snow and temps look to be very seasonal especially going into the weekend.  So really all in all not bad at all. I have enjoyed the warm up a bit and its nice to see the sun shining. 

This morning's GFS continues to advertise a strong chance of snow across the mountains towards the end of the week. This flow is going to be a bit different though. With the low so deep and south of us the cold aid actually will wrap around from the SW... This means the southern mountains will change to snow before anyone else. We will eventually get a NW flow but that will not happen until the Low pulls east of us. A pretty neat setup really. I think this is mostly confined to the boarder counties but it is still early. 

7 hours ago, WeatherHawk said:

Winds this evening are strong and pressing...my windows are singing and I lost a nice silver tarp...can't find it...it's probably in Sparta now

Interesting.  No wind here at all. A pretty cold morning also with a current temp of 28 degrees. 

Yeah it looks like we will see a rain to snow situation at the end of the week especially across the higher elevations. We dont have a strong cold source to pull from so things will be from top to bottom across the mountains. 

Looks like this weekend is just going to be nasty all the way around. A cold rain with some wind and some flooding. Even here they are calling for a bit of rain/snow Saturday night into Sunday. 

32 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

I'll stick with this.Solar wind is running 391.8 over the last 60 days,EEP levels still low no big geomagnetic activity.QBO at -9.67 at 50mb,better chances for lower heights/trough in N America.Anyone else notice the big rainfall totals across the country this year?Solar min also increases the cosmic rays and that increases the cloudcover on the globe.That in turn increases the rainfall where the low heights/trough set up.Cosmic rays have been hitting hard for close to a year and it's not a coincidence in my opinion.

 

 

 

Great posts on the solar man. I think you and someone else had mentioned the solar output associated with the weather. I think there is more to that than a lot of people realize. 

3 hours ago, NavarreDon said:

Did any of you feel this? Around 4:15 am EST.

 

Yep woke me up! 

53 minutes ago, SnoJoe said:

I got to 36 degrees today but after last night's cold, this snow has locked up like cement. Tried to take a little walk today but you can't get through it. This is the type of stuff that would stay around forever if the temps were right. It's pretty much off the roads but the ice was rough almost all day in some areas. I've got an ice cycle hanging off one of my sheds that's about 4 ft. long and a good 2 ft. thick. I'm going shoot it with a shotgun tomorrow to see what happens.

 

Lol you need to take a picture of that. You ain't kidding about this being like cement.  It's like one huge block of ice.

This weekend system looks like a lot of rain with maybe some very high elevation snow, probably above 5000 feet. This system just have no cold source. Then we will have a trough in the NE that looks to keep us seasonal for a bit.

29 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Hi All.  Just a quick update.  We are 60 hours now without power or internet.  Tree damage is extensive.  What a storm!

4 minutes ago, MaggyNoLia said:

Finally  got a cell signal. No power since Saturday 11 p.m. here in Lake Lure. I received a good ten inches or more here. Sunday night we had more of a slushy mix than snow.

Yeah I have had some friends who may not get power back on until Thursday afternoon at best because of the downed trees and extensive powerline damage.

42 minutes ago, jburns said:

It is a nice photo. you may like the original better but I took a moment to remove the blue cast.  Cameras often have trouble with white balance in snow scenes.

You are the man jburns! I do like that a lot. Thank you.

Mountain crew great job with this storm and the storm obs. It was a great storm to come back to and it was great to share with all of you. We have a unique mountain community and I am proud to be apart of it! Ever since I started the mountain thread I would have never imagined it growing to the likes it is currently.  Keep up the great work gang!

18 minutes ago, HKY1894 said:

Well I’m at 190% of seasonal average and we’re not even halfway through winter. Euro seasonal and weeklies look epic for rest of winter after this relaxation. Feeling like this might be headed for a top 5 winter for western part of the state. Precipitation hasn’t been an issue all year. Just need another nice Miller A


.

Could you post the weeklies?

Here is a photo looking down Mainstreet in Waynesville.  This photo credit is to Carolina photo art.

8 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

Windy down here today! If this is a start to a good season, it should be a great one!!


.

Nice looking family sir!

I didn't take this picture but my Aunt did early yesterday morning.  Thought it was a beautiful pic of the barn and landscape.