Met1985

2 minutes ago, SnoJoe said:

 

Ok, so you came back to where you belong. Congrats?  At least now I have somebody to explain this crap to me. Welcome home Brother.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes this is where I belong for sure! Thank you Joe!

On a serious note the winds with heavy wet snowfall will be a recipe for disaster with power outages and trees coming down. 

2 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

And substantially colder. Now aligns perfectly with Euro, FV3, and CMC. 

What worries me greatly is 55 knot winds at 850mb Sunday morning in the mountains. Exceptionally dangerous situation may be unfolding!

Dangerous is our middle name in the mountains.  Bring it all at once.

I'm back gang! Let's do this!

58 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

 

HT you know you are a freaking superstar here in the mountain forum! Never and I mean never hesitate to post here at all. I think I can speak for all in this forum but your opinion and posting in here is of great value to all of us. You know your stuff and you shoot us straight.  One hell of a write up and we all appreciate your input on this. Again never hesitate to post or put in your two cents. You are one of the best around here and I do mean that. Thank you.

37 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Will do. Hopefully this evening after dinner time 

I was wondering when you would chime in. I'm packing up and trying to get the hell out of Wisconsin tonight.  Ironically its snowing up here as well. 

6 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said:

You are right. This is probably bonus snow this early in the winter. Good to have you here Met1985!  You are our backbone. 

Yeah I absolutely agree with you on the early bonus snow especially with such an amped up system. This has been a strange Fall for yall down here. Thank you! I am excited to be back.

Just now, ncjoaquin said:

GEFS mean still at 12.62 based on 0z data. So, still looking in good shape. Anything over 10 inches would be a win in my opinion.

Oh yeah I agree especially for early December.  I still think we are in the prime spot for this in WNC.

I wouldn't be alarmed at all to see the models do this. Wobble a bit here and there only to come back a day or two to look great for use. Shoot I wouldn't be surprised if the mountains areas only saw snow from this since it's so early in the season. To me you have to be very cautious. 

2 minutes ago, Boonelight said:

Thanks for the reply Met, I appreciate it. I agree about all the others being most of the problem, and I know it’s going to change from here until the event. They’ll probably need to leave earlier than later in the morning to avoid the worst of it though. I’ll definitely keep an eye on the developments.

Yeah probably earlier than later. It really depends on how this all evolves.  A lot can and will change with this system from now until this weekend. 

19 minutes ago, Boonelight said:

No appreciable snow here, but I guess that could change overnight. I’m getting worried about this weekend, as my GF and daughter are leaving Sunday morning to go to Columbia. Anybody have any insight on how well maintained 421 to I77 is? And further south from there? She’s driving a Subaru, btw. I know we’re just starting to get a handle on this system and things could definitely change, but the trends point to a big snow here and a mess further down into the CLT area.

It's way to early for specifics.  If she is driving a Subaru then she should be fine but its everyone else that is the problem. 

13 minutes ago, SnoJoe said:

This will be a nice little primer for the weekend. I know I'm biased, but there's nothing like Appalachian snow. I know you missed it. 

Oh I agree. There is no place like the Appalachian mountains.  

1 minute ago, SnoJoe said:

Nice flurries started a little while ago. Cold, cloudy day. Never got out of the twenties. After last week temps and the start of this one, I notice on a 4 wheeler ride today that the ground is starting to lock up. Some surface mud in the daytime but definitely cold underneath. Even the flurries tonight are sticking to everything.

Nice Joe. Wish I was back already. 

Anybody getting snow tonight?

3 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

I'm not implying they are similar events but, during the December 2009 storm we started as snow then went to rain then back to heavy snow. We ended up with 16" + 2" more of flow snow on the back side for a total of 18" in Weaverville. Could there be mixing.....sure. With the QPF amounts shown on most of the guidance how relevant can it be? I guess if 3' is your goal you're out of luck. If 12"+ makes you happy you'll have grins galore!!!

What a freaking storm that was...

17 minutes ago, SnoJoe said:

GSP seems to think it will only be all snow Sunday night. Leads me to believe we'll have temp issues here. We might be a little to far away from the CAD region. Anyhow, we'll see how it shakes out. Hope everyone sees something wintry. Looks like a nice little tease tonight before the bigger event this weekend. 

 

 

 

Saturday

A chance of freezing rain before 10am, then a chance of rain between 10am and 3pm, then a chance of rain, snow, and sleet after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday Night

Rain, snow, and sleet likely before 7pm, then snow between 7pm and 2am, then snow and freezing rain after 2am. Low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Sunday

Snow and sleet likely before 11am, then rain and sleet likely between 11am and 1pm, then rain and snow likely after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday Night

Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday

A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Joe I wouldn't bother with the PC forecast currently because we are several days away and the system is just now entering California. 

5 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

For some if the old timers on the board Robert (Foothills) says their are some details as usual to get worked out but........This one has the potential to be truly historic for the Mnt. region!

Yeah this could be a special event. Shoot they are all special but yeah this is a chance to be very high in the QPF category. 

27 minutes ago, cold air aloft said:

Like Met mentioned, I'm looking forward to tonight's mini-event. My neck of the woods usually doesn't fare too well with NW flow events, but some of us look to have a good night.

Heck, I was pleasantly surprised this morning. Went out to walk my dog around 6 am to find the ground covered with a dusting of snow and a few flakes still flying. Wasn't expecting that at all. Nice start to Winter!

Yeah Maggie is on or off with NW flow. The flow has to be just right for yall to get a good bit. You will do very well this weekend. 

1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Anyone in the Asheville/Lake Lure area PLEASE be careful... 

We live for this! This is WNC!

Let's not forget about the snow coming in tonight along the boarder.  WWA put into affect. 

Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-
Including the cities of Banner Elk, Newland, Luck,
and Waynesville
250 PM EST Tue Dec 4 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON EST WEDNESDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* WHAT...Snow expected above 3500 feet. Total snow accumulations
  of one to two inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...North Carolina mountain counties along the Tennessee
  border.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to noon EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions from brief
  heavy snow showers and temperatures falling into the teens and
  lower 20s. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning
  commute.

Just now, AsheCounty48 said:

Just popped up on my facebook that someone shared. People are going nuts. Rightfully so I guess, but basing everything off of an automated forecast is a recipe for disaster.

That is when this forum and this thread shines.  We are prone to getting at least a one foot storm a season. We are level headed and not to easy to jump off the cliff or onto some bizarre forecast.  

1 minute ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

I just got to thinking that a winter storm thread just doesn't seem right without Met.

Welcome back!

Just in the nick of time buddy!

Just now, AsheCounty48 said:

Well I know the entire sub forum will be glad to have you back for this one.

Thank you Ashe! I will be glad to get back. I went on a journey and I succeeded but sometimes you must come back home. Yall have done an excellent job in here and look forward to brining it big time this winter.

Also given the time of the year and climo wise we stand the best to see snow falling especially getting a foot. I'm afraid outside the mountains may have p-type issues as we have seen several times.

I will definitely be back fellas! Looking forward to getting into the game. I would hedge on the side of caution just because we are several days out. This does look "historical" but we have all see small changes and adjustments to the tracks of lows that make a big difference in snow totals.