While west and middle Tennessee get a winter event our outlook is possible flooding with so much rain coming in. I have zero faith in any winter weather the first week of February at this point.
At the current state we are looking at a ton of rainfall and not a snowstorm or any winter weather storm. We will see a glancing blow of cold air and that's it. The ensembles look meh and the operational models don't give any hope.
Yeah I think you are right. I think it is definitely contributing to the volatility of the models. I mean I can't remember when we had such swings on all the models from run to run.
You know I've been thinking us pretty much switching the enso state is causing the models to really go crazy. The signal is complex and off because of that. I think we are going to have a damn cold spring because if it also.