Met1985

Yeah that's crazy but not out of the realm with this extremely dense push of arctic air.

Yes I've seen were the models have been severely behind on modeling the arctic front.

We've not seen an airmass like this for nearly a decade and we are only in December...

Yeah you can look back in the TN forum from yesterday were spots in Wyoming and Montana dropped 30 degrees in 3 minutes...

This arctic blast absolutely means business. This one is impressive for sure.

The NAM is a bit better on some snow, the hrrr is meh, and the NAM 3K brings the goods to the high elevation spots which is a positive change.

Euro upped totally, gfs looks decent. I think we all see some flakes but the real news maker is the cold and wind that is going to blow through here tomorrow morning.

NAM is paltry on the snow again...

A big improvement on the euro across the border counties. After several runs of drying up the moisture this run brings back some. Maybe we are finally seeing a middle ground with the models.

Good Lord that's crazy.

Well to me the gfs took a big step towards the euro. There is a sharp gratient on the snow line right along the border counties. Gfs still very very cold. Might have warmed up a degree or two but still very cold.

And this is exactly what I was talking about last night. This watch is from Andrews south. Today or tomorrow the rest of the mountains will be issued something similar. ...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills possible. Wind chills as low as 15 below zero in lower elevations, and as low as 25 below zero in higher elevations. * WHERE...Portions of southwest North Carolina, east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. * WHEN...From late Thursday night through Saturday afternoon.

Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles- Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA- Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford- Amherst-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier- Western Greenbrier- Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Dobson, Boone, Wilkesboro, Tazewell, Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, Floyd, New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, Buena Vista, Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Bluefield, Hinton, Hix, Union, Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle 338 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total sleet and/or ice accumulations from freezing rain of around one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest North Carolina, central, south central, southwest and west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday.

Ice, ice baby! Haywood-Transylvania- Including the city of Waynesville 339 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET... * WHAT...Freezing rain expected. A light glaze is expected at elevations above 3500 feet. * WHERE...Elevations above 3500 feet over the Balsam Mountains in Haywood and Transylvania Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Thursday.

Yeah a big jump in snowfall on this side of the mountain for sure. Hopefully a last minute trend towards recognizing more moisture behind the front.

The NAM looked much better this morning especially for the southern mountains with the expanse of snow and snowfall numbers. The NAM 3K followed suit with upping totals and being a but more expansive on the snowfall. Even giving the airport at least a trace this run.

Euro is very dry and warmer.

NAM looks just like the euro in my opinion.

Also just a bit of fun but even with the lack of snow possibly this is a historic event and it will be a memorable event. To see temperatures this cold with windchills that we are going to see and the dramatic temperature drop is something we rarely see here. This is a rare event especially in December. Possible record breaking pressure in Montana. Make no mistake about the shear size of this event across the country. We will have wind chill warnings and high wind advisories and high wind warnings also. If you by chance you see a changeover to snow then you'll likely see some brief blizzard conditions locally...

Yeah the changeover will not be gradually. It's going to turnaround on a dime.

I thought the 18z looked good for snow in the mountains. Asheville is up to 2 inches on the model run. The temp drop is just going to be insane especially with the wind. That gfs run has Asheville at a min of 1 and has me at negative 5.... Yall seen today after tomorrow.... Yeah something like that lol.

To me it is clear the euro is drying up ever so slightly over the past 3 to 4 runs....

Euro is abysmal on the snow chances. The euro keeps the low wrapped up much further north than the gfs. And with the verification scores this could be the right solution.

Yeah yall will flirt with single digits. At this moment im thinking one of us will make it to at least negative 5 to negative 10 here in the mountains especially if you have some snow on the ground.

Easy on the ho down to Hickory this is a kid friendly site lol.