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Met1985

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Everything posted by Met1985

  1. Met1985
    I need to remember that I live in the mountains lol. The main thread and I don't jive
  2. Met1985
    Better hope it goes into cod then. I still think we get chances into February. At the very least the pattern will repeat itself in my opinion.
  3. Met1985
    Yeah just getting our source of cold back to cold would be a big win. We do a lot better when Canada is in the freezer. We don't need to be in the freezer but just have the cold spoke through to keep our chances for winter weather above average. I think we actually have a lot going for us in the upcoming weeks. Anything before that is just a bonus in my opinion.
  4. Met1985
    Got to hold onto something. I think February could surprise a lot of people. I know typically February's during Nina are torches but I think this year will not be an all out torch. We've seen things change pretty fast this year also.
  5. Met1985
    Yeah I just posted about the same thing in our forum. Great stuff and at least something to track even if it fails lol...but
  6. Met1985
    The euro Weeklies have been progressively getting us colder from late this month through February. The pattern change is on the ensembles now. About 2 weeks out with intermittent cold fronts. With the mjo and the disruption of the pv anything can go. There are signs of the NAO going negative also but as we all know that doesn't mean we will get a storm...
  7. Met1985
    The 12z mean snowfall bumped up as well across the region which is a great sign of ensemble support.
  8. Met1985
    Yeah a huge improvement for the border counties at least. Even had Asheville getting a few inches.
  9. Met1985
    That causes a long duration upslope snow across the mountains that would dump feet along the border.
  10. Met1985
    Actually this is a bit of a bizarre solution with the low kind of stalling out and winding up.
  11. Met1985
    12z gfs is an improvement. Not a huge improvement but a better solution especially on the backside of the system.
  12. Met1985
    Yeah ive seen that in the long range guidance as well.
  13. Met1985
    Yeah yall in the foothills may be blanked.
  14. Met1985
    The 06z gfs snowfall mean still looks decent out at the mid range of this system. So still some hope.
  15. Met1985
    Count it.
  16. Met1985
    06z gfs is too warm as well. All rain. Our cold source is just junk currently... Again a thread the needle type situation.
  17. Met1985
    The overnight suites are just not warm enough. This is a thread the needle situation in my opinion. Our source for cold air is mixed with maritime junk. This is the problem with having the jet just streaking across the states at a record pace.
  18. Met1985
    Yeah too much cold is a bad thing as you well know. I think the rest of the season looks interesting to at least be interested in the pattern for the mid to long range unless something happens to mess that up. But as we both know these patterns have a mind of there own and can be fickle at there best.
  19. Met1985
    Seems like earlier you said that the extended was really dry but I know how quickly that can change....
  20. Met1985
    Yeah I definitely like the repeating pattern into February. I think this February will act much different than people think because of the waning Nina and because we have been in this cold, warm, cold phase since September basically. And I think heading into March and into early spring is a toss up really. We could see some real extremes this spring season. I like the Weeklies and the ensembles for the most part. The jet is absolutely roaring right now. It's been fascinating watching the pattern this season because there really hasn't been a dominant pattern that has taken shape besides the pac jet being a thorn in our side.
  21. Met1985
    This looks a lot like the cold shot we just received during Christmas. I'd like less cold and a more stable pattern but I mean beggars cannot be choosers....
  22. Met1985
    Even though the 18z gfs was not impressive the 18z GEFS gave us a significant mean snowfall boost for our area. I mean a big boost in the mean. We will see if the gfs goes the way of it's ensembles.
  23. Met1985
    Keep is up to date on the Weeklies bud. Im intrigued.
  24. Met1985
    Yeah as GaWx has pointed out that the eps has been picking this up the past several runs.
  25. Met1985
    Some good stuff actually in the main thread. GaWx has been putting out some great info the past few weeks. The eps has been picking this signal up for the past few days and todays run of the EPS fully supports the Euro run we just saw. All good things to continue to watch for.
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