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Met1985

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Everything posted by Met1985

  1. Met1985
    Yeah once again I think the gfs is on an island all by itself. I could be wrong but im sticking to the Euro.
  2. Met1985
    Temps been dropping since this morning. Down to 44 already with continued thick clouds.
  3. Met1985
    Yeah I think there has been some serious damage done to the model since this upgrade. It's behaving erratic and there is no continuity from run to run. To me it's the worst model we have currently.
  4. Met1985
    This is like a broken record but again the GEFS does not agree with the OP. It blasts the front through here and the majority of us get cold.
  5. Met1985
    Euro and eps look good. Continued cold coming in with ensemble support.
  6. Met1985
    I've actually read that this new upgrade to the gfs has worse verification scores than the previous gfs version... I know this is a major shift in the hemispherical weather pattern but there has been very little continuity this week with the gfs....
  7. Met1985
    Once again the gfs own ensembles do not agree with the op. This is a running trend over several days... The GEFS blows the cold front through the region once again and looks much better than the OP.
  8. Met1985
    What sight do you use for the Canadian?
  9. Met1985
    This is not the same gfs especially after the upgrade.
  10. Met1985
    Gfs says what plus pna and negative EPO. dumps some bone chilling cold all in the east and northern plains while we bask in the SER.
  11. Met1985
    I doubt this happens this way but most get a few inches...
  12. Met1985
    Good Lord at the cold air coming down from Canada in the northern plains.
  13. Met1985
    00z op gfs looks a lot like the 18z. No real push in cold air. It's delayed a bit and just kind of bleeds through. I wouldn't even call it a cold front but a zonal flow. Again the ensembles have not been supporting this. If the Euro is right with blowing the front through then something is very wrong with the gfs. The freaking update broke it....
  14. Met1985
    Also a nice cool evening with a temp of 43 already with thick fog. I might be weird but I enjoy this weather at this time of the year. It's kept things cool and damp and something about the Christmas lights shinning through thick fog that looks like a landing strip for Santa lol.
  15. Met1985
    The 18z ensembles still brings the cold front blasting through the area. Looks nothing like the OP. Looks good to me still. In general the GEFS has been pretty rock steady other than a few runs here and there...
  16. Met1985
    No happy hour on the 18z. Actually probably one of the worst runs the past few days. The cold air just really slowly bleeds in but not a push like what has been showing. I expect more changes though as the verification scores for the op gfs have been meager recently...
  17. Met1985
    Yeah no kidding! I mean any little change from the above mentioned will change the pattern but dang the euro and the eps is a thing of beauty.
  18. Met1985
    Dang the 12z eps is a thing of beautiful! I mean we've not seen a look this good in years in my opinion. I mean this pattern change is on our doorstep. We are roughly 6 days away from this pattern change for us. Just an absolute beautiful run for us. Storm or no storm this is exciting times coming up.
  19. Met1985
    The 12z euro is cold. Colder than the gfs. No storm next week but it brings down colder air further south which means days of upslope in my opinion. The euro stays cold through the end of the run with a huge high coming down from Canada also at the end.
  20. Met1985
    All in all im happy with todays runs. Everything still looks good from the 15th on. I think in our region we are in the middle. The battle ground which im fine with. We get most of our best snows right on the line anyways. I see lots of threats for frozen precipitation on the 12z today. Euro is rolling out now. Also a nice chilly day today with the temp at 47 currently.
  21. Met1985
    Yep I just wrote that. All inside 200 hours which is a big step.
  22. Met1985
    More big improvements on the 00z gfs all inside 200 hours. This is the most aggressive and the deepest I've seen the gfs take this first batch of cold air across our area. Again the gfs is finally catching onto this major blocking. The upslope action would be a foot plus in favored areas on this run.
  23. Met1985
    Yeah 1 inch of ice plus... I don't think so. Calling it right now.
  24. Met1985
    Yeah it is. A wild solution but I think it has something to do with that cold high pressure that literally spins down from Canada into the NE.
  25. Met1985
    00z gfs has a raging ice storm now for around the 15th.... Of course it does.
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