Met1985

Yeah temps are dropping. Down to 45 currently and windy. Going to be cold tonight. Probably some teens around. We will warm up the first of next week but it's all part of the plan. This blocking is very deep and extreme guys. We've not seen this in some 10 plus years...

Yeah the operationals are going to be swinging a bit with this near record or record blocking in the NAO regions. I wouldn't be surprised to see a storm pop up inside 5 to 7 days out of the blue given the extreme dynamics of this upper level weather pattern.

Also all is go with the December pattern change. Lots of noise out there but just be patient.

Yeah this rainfall was no joke. I nice steady soaking rain here in Haywood which we needed it because we had a 500 acre fire burning.

Also guys venture out into the forum in general. There is a lot of great into in the TN VALLEY thread, the Mid Atlantic thread and in the NEW England thread as well.

Yeah the interesting thing was that last year didn't we see a record PNA for the season when it was so negative?

Im sure we are going to see some crazy solutions regarding the significance of this block in the NAO region. I read in the Mid Atlantic forum that some models are spitting out the highest pressure ever recorded in Greenland. With a block to this magnitude who knows what we see from the models....

The pattern continues to look great after the 5th especially around mid month. There are going to be some major changes in the pattern from top to bottom. The biggest thing is the depth of blocking in the NAO and AO regions which we have not seen in a long time. The ensembles continues to look good. The op models will change from run to run especially during a huge pattern shift as we will see. So if you are hedging bets on the controls then you'll go insane. All in all im very excited for the opportunity for winter weather coming for the second half of December.

December 5th and on have been the time frame for the transition. As you can see this is the 3rd. I mean if you are just being pessimistic then just say so. IMO a pattern change later in the month will be much better according to climo....

There are sublet differences but the GFS and the EPS are both showing some impressive blocking setting up especially with the retrograding Scandinavian block which usually leads to great blocking for us. The negative NAO is west based also so that is a huge help. The date im looking at for significant changes are December the 5th which is less than 10 days away.

Yes sir!

Everything still looks great heading into the second week of December. The telecommunications look to be lining up great especially with the AO and the NAO finally. Looks like this year we could see some legitimate blocking taking place that will help us. We have a few days of near normal then back below normal after Tuesday.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Yeah the ensembles, the CFS, and the telecommunications look really good if you ask me. There are some waffles but hey that's to be expected. I feel like something is different this season already. We've had multiple cold outbreaks already which has been a rarity for the past several years. Was reading through that maybe just maybe blocking is making a comeback finally after being sparse for a decade....

Had a low of 25 this morning. We are beginning our relaxation heading into the first of December. Looks like a very rainy weekend currently but also the pattern headed into mid December Looks great.

Well the euro followed the gfs with the storm this week. I'd say this is a bias but maybe not....

You can say that again. The GFS has been very inconsistent with this Friday's system. I have no clue what has gotten into the data set of the gfs but it's been weird.

When I left for work I was down to 14 degrees. The GFS I have no clue what it's doing but it lost the storm again. The Euro has been steady so far with the storm this Friday. The EPS is heading in the right direction at the end of the period. We will have a mild period at the first of December but I do think we step down in the middle of the month.

Yeah the euro has been very consistent with this storm. The GFS lost the storm and kind of has something back. Really to me the gfs is lost to me...

Excellent job posting and the visuals from this LES are absolutely amazing!

Yeah the euro is definitely showing a more prominent cold storm for sure.

We ended up at 14 degrees this morning. Very impressive for November.

Coldest night of the season. Ended up having a low of 18 degrees with a current temp of 33 degrees.

Clouds rolling in and 26.

Definitely post here. Ill be living vicariously through yall with this amazing event.