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Everything posted by Met1985
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2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Met1985 replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
Also looking at the whole 18z GEFS that is some insane cold air up in Canada. I mean bone chilling cold air up in Canada and the mechanisms are there to bring chunks of that down into the lower 48. -
2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Met1985 replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
Yeah this weather has been depressing at best but yes much needed rainfall for sure. Literally days and days of rainfall and clouds and fog. I enjoy this weather really but I'd rather see clouds and days and days of snow lol. -
2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Met1985 replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
Also another temp fail today. Only got up to 52 degrees. Was supposed to hit 62. -
2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Met1985 replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
The 18z gefs is by far the coldest we've seen with the ensembles finally catching onto the major blocking going on over the top and into AK. From about hour 168 through the rest of the run we stay below average. The models should still continue to adjust as we march towards next week. -
2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Met1985 replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
The 12z eps is one of the coldest yet. The eps looks great again from about hour 168 onwards. Some really cold air for sure. Today's trends are exactly what we want to see. -
2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Met1985 replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
12z Euro looked really good from about hour 168 onwards and you can see at the end of the run much colder air working down from Canada. Again im taking the mid to long range op runs with a grain of salt but the recent ensemble runs support this. -
2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Met1985 replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
We are finally seeing the effects of the blocking and the ridge bridge over the top. The 12z GEFS was the coldest run here in the region that we have seen. The cmc is very cold for us also and all this is in the 7 to 9 day range so we are for sure moving forward. -
2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Met1985 replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
Once again I see my highs getting pushed back 10 to 15 degrees from the NWS. I still have yet to break 60 this week with heavy fog and rain. We were supposed to be near 70 all week. Looks like we will be right near normal after today. -
December 2022 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Met1985 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
My exact sentiments on the gfs. The OP is extremely volatile passed day 5 from run to run...- 582 replies
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December 2022 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Met1985 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah you are right. I remember this summer is was record breaking high temps for areas like OK and surrounding regions. Then the heat wave come and left and no records or super records were broken...- 582 replies
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December 2022 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Met1985 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah ive been reading a lot in the New England forum and several mets are saying that the new GFS is doing a horrendous job with the blocking and just basically the whole flow of things. I can tell it's taken a hit because there is absolutely no run to run continuity with the models since the upgrade. Why upgrade a model with poorer performance....- 582 replies
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2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Met1985 replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
The GFS run to run models have zero continuity. And it's moving high and low pressure hundreds of miles from run to run. Either the new upgrade to the gfs sucks that bad or this whole pattern change is a farce.... -
2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Met1985 replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
The Euro weeklies look great from the 15th onwards... All good signs and lines up for our target date. -
2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Met1985 replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
Yeah and not only the OP but the ensembles are doing the same thing on drastic changes from run to run.... -
December 2022 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Met1985 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
From what im reading and researching is that the gfs is having a very tough time handling the forming block in the Northern hemisphere. No doubt the PNA region is crapping things up but I don't think we go full torch either...- 582 replies
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2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Met1985 replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
The hell with the gfs currently. Been doing a lot of reading and I don't think the gfs has a clue on what's going on with the blocking pattern taking shape. I think the euro has a better grasp on things. -
From what I've been reading that the gfs just had an update but it's verification scores are lower than the old gfs. I think that explains some big swings in model run to model run. Not sure about the gfs ensembles though. Im sticking with the Euro currently.
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2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Met1985 replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
Yeah it's downright raw today. We will come on way low and well below average. -
2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Met1985 replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
Current temp is down to 27 degrees with heavy frost. Todays high now is 48... One thing im noticing is that temps are getting tapered down a lot come the day of. Just like this mornings low was only supposed to be 34 degrees and today's high just a few days ago was supposed to be 64 degrees. Instead we have seen a 15 degree to colder and if the overnight euro is correct then the warmth we were supposed to get will be muted greatly. -
2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Met1985 replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
The 18z shows the potential of this upcoming pattern. I wouldn't get worked up about what you see but just know that this is a possibility especially after the 12th... -
2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Met1985 replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
Yeah the target date was always around December 15th... We know the models have a massively hard time with large pattern changes and this is no different in my opinion. -
2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Met1985 replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
A lot of chatter on the pattern coming up. One thing I can say is that we are going to be wet. Lots of showers and rainfall which isn't really bad. Currently it looks like the pattern might be changing mid month. To me the later the better because our climo just gets more and more favorable as the month goes on. -
2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Met1985 replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
Temp down to 28 degrees, Christmas tree is decorated, putting up outside lights, hot chocolate is hot, and Polar Express is on for the kids.... All is well. -
Yeah this is a very anomalous setup which the workings for this are already underway. No way the OP models have a firm grasp on crap currently. The ensembles are the way to go currently.
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December 2022 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Met1985 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
That's definitely the way to go. Ensembles all the way. The OP models don't have a clue.- 582 replies
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