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NC_hailstorm

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Everything posted by NC_hailstorm

  1. NC_hailstorm
    I think the January 2nd monster made another appearance tonight(hour 270, GFS18Z )Off the coast but he's still alive.
  2. NC_hailstorm
    Well the GFS in fantasy land,la la land(hour 360) has the monster that beats them all today.Might wanna save that one see some 30'' to 40'' totals.
  3. NC_hailstorm
    Watch that shortwave on the west coast,rockies,plains around day 4/5.if that can dig a bit more could be a big hit its going to run right into that cold dome pressing down. Carry on.
  4. NC_hailstorm
    Solar wind the last 4 days 402-682 511-694 507-641 436-597 Strongest levels since very early November,should get a few more active days(Dec.27th-30th)coming.Low solar usually leads to a sluggish jet stream,things get bogged down,patterns get stuck.This might be enough to kick things along,we'll see plus phase 7 MJO is usually cold in the east but that -PNA is a beast.The +AAM might weaken but you need something to kickstart a flip. Just my opinion.
  5. NC_hailstorm
    Just looking at the MJO,phase 7 in December is typically warm in the east but phase 7 in January turns colder shown here. https://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html But you're dealing with a strong,dug in, -PNA this time and like i said before the weather is gonna do what the weather is gonna do.
  6. NC_hailstorm
    All I know is that -PNA is strong,deep,and negative.It's going to take quite a jolt to dislodge that feature to get to a better pattern.We'll see.
  7. NC_hailstorm
    +AAM is the highest today since mid July readings.Have my own opinion what drives this though. Feburary was a big +AAM month,central/eastern US was very cold. May was another +AAM month,another cold central/eastern US July was another +AAM month,another below normal temps for central/eastern US Carry on.
  8. NC_hailstorm
    Pattern change is probably more believe able considering the MJO forecasts moving into p7 and p8 in 10-14 days.Also the AAM is forecasted to rise and I believe it will till the end of the month.But the weather is gonna do what the weather is gonna do so just observe.
  9. NC_hailstorm
    Sorta cold today,high 45.1 low 27.7,overcast all day.
  10. NC_hailstorm
    Next 7 days or so look quiet,GFS and Euro both bringing down an arctic front around day 8/9.Euro runs a big storm up the front,GFS just a frontal passage but the air behind looks plenty cold. Afterwards you're just watching for shortwaves to interact with the cold air,both models have something but impossible to pin down this far out.Also when I see the 582-585dm pushing all the way up into Oregon/Washington I start watching. Eyes open.
  11. NC_hailstorm
    Fairly strong shortwave in Manitoba diving SSE around day 6,probably needs it to dig more west to have a shot but still fun to watch.It's not impossible to get a dusting/inch,or a rain/snow mix in late November but looks like a cold shot even without a storm.
  12. NC_hailstorm
    29.8 this morning
  13. NC_hailstorm
    41.6 here at a little past 1 pm,cold and damp.
  14. NC_hailstorm
    Cold front has arrived here after a high of 79.9,couple sprinkles and a wind shift out of the WNW.Should get a nice cooldown this evening.
  15. NC_hailstorm
    Looks like the GFS and Euro are going for a fairly strong CAD around day 6/7.Seeing a 1030-1040 HP in southeast Canada.
  16. NC_hailstorm
    Euro and GFS both show a nice cool down around day 6/7 with a fairly strong cold front. Seeing the 564 dm pressing into parts of NC,impressive for late September.
  17. NC_hailstorm
    Seeing some low/mid 50's dew point after Ida passes by on day 5/6 on the GFS/Euro today. Relief is in sight.
  18. NC_hailstorm
    3.49'' for the week so far.
  19. NC_hailstorm
    2.44'' for the week so far,might get a little more with another rain band about to cross.
  20. NC_hailstorm
    97.9 so far,ticking back slightly now but its warm today. .32'' for the month on rain,cells come very close though within a mile or two lately but that's it.
  21. NC_hailstorm
    12Z runs of the Euro,Ukie,and Canadian all have heavy rain in Western/west central NC.GFS still the only holdout.
  22. NC_hailstorm
    12Z Euro looks similar to the Ukie in my opinion.
  23. NC_hailstorm
    Looks like the 0z Euro still has a swath of heavy rain but more towards the west this run. 12z Ukie had good precip up in most of NC,GFS doesn't have much as the others.Waiting on the 12z Euro.
  24. NC_hailstorm
    Euro is putting down some big totals in western/central NC,bout 6''-12'' of rain on day 6/7. GFS/Ukie have rain but nothing that big.
  25. NC_hailstorm
    Light/Moderate snow here solid dusting ,cars covered.Roads still look wet only. 32.2
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