RogueWaves

That's what holiday lights are for..

Per the BSR, beastly stuff looms down the road a bit.

/\ OUCH!

I'm sure peeps thought the same after 77-78. Then we got 81-82 just four years later. Can't rule anything out tbh.

Was that the 24/12z ICON that showed those gusts at 850?

"There is an 850 mb max upwards of 75 kts in lower MI at 192 hours, most of which would probably mix down given the situation with a rapidly bombing low. There is quick deepening and then there is what we are seeing on models like the Euro (and ICON), which is on a different level." Per Hoosier's read on the winds at 850 mixing down in SWMI. I'm too far inland to score much snow as it stands now, so mainly just the winds. 11-17-13 was the snow-less version and the whole town went dark.

Power grid looks to be a disaster. NOT excited about backside flurries and multi-day power outage scenario - pass!

Lots to sort out, but I appreciate the historical comparison/context. As noted, the latitude of the CSB may never be equaled. I mean, lots of storms hit 950mb way up in the Bering Sea for instance. But down where people live?, nasso much. GRR notes 3 systems on tap in their pm AFD including possible winter impacts from next week's. If this is the winter trend, that's gonna be one heck of a busy office.

23/12z GFS @ 500mb = eye-popping loop for next week's system.

10-26-97 delivered a hvy 8" in Kzoo. Tree damage was extensive! This one has low party @ A-L-E-K's place written all over it, so main concern on this side of the lake looks to be more wind and wave damage. NOT a good time to be a WMI lakeshore property owner.

Yep. 1st flake icon of the new season in my grid

I just like the theme. Systems strengthening in our sub. West and eastward too. That run may be the old GooFuS doing it's thing, but there have been a lot of wound-up storms already, and most, other than the MT and ND bliz's haven't really even had cold air infusion going for them. I think it's a good sign going forward.

/\ on 2nd thought, maybe things won't even wait til Nov?

NHemi Snowcover is like 2SD's above avg, and Canada looks to fill-up rapidly with snow in the next couple weeks. Won't be much to put the brakes on an early onset of that. Get ready! Cohen's blog today mentioning a slight perturbation of the PV last week of October and the CFS has a very eastern trough look for Nov. Last Nov here was no. 3 all-time for snow, with no. 1 all-time just a few miles to my west. I thought we'd get back to dull boring Nov's per the norm this year. Not so sure about that now.

Bound to happen sooner than later. Can't keep up the non-stop flooding forever. Also, can't buy a balanced stretch of wx. It's gotta go flipping extreme one direction then the other. My 2 cents fwiw

It's a noteworthy trend that many of these storms are acting much like the biggies in 77-78 which was a weak Nino. Strong storms at peak intensity stalling, looping, drifting, etc. No low solar to blame back then tho, which we have going on right now aiding high-lat blocking. It's uncanny and hopefully continues into winter.

Yes to all above. As you said, ground-zero for that storm was more or less in the middle between this year's two pre-season beasts. 2013 had the most extensive early snow cover build-up of the past couple decades. 2019 is in 2nd or 3rd place to date, but may be on a roll. Could we catch, or even surpass 2013 over the next month? "Don't touch that dial.."

A CF brought some rain..it's a start

A lot of (early) outlooks showin OHV "the luv". Let's see where we are going into November.

Perhaps, but here's a couple decent ones that should have you N. OH peeps at least mildly enthused..if you have a pulse. One must on as we approach a fresh winter ahead! https://www.weatherbell.com/preliminary-2019-2020-winter-forecast Heck, even runner-up analog seasons look pretty tasty compared to the last (3) seasons imby. I'm cautiously excited based on current SSTA's holding serve into the DJF time-frame, with a more or less La-Nada look staying the course. The "Blob" in the NPAC needs to remain stout - that'll be key imho.

Yikes! So sorry for that mega-bust. Thought those were a thing of the past tbh. Tho LES is prolly the most challenging to nail. Hopefully, we'll get something to make up that loss later. Plus, we're all getting in on this decent clipper. - Cheers

GRR was also bullish on double digit totals for SWMI but it ended up a nice 4-8" event instead..you're not the only region that suffered that fate

Rip city in SWMI already hit 3" in first 3 hrs. Robust event - storm conditions thru Van Buren Cnty! Winter Wonderland ❄❄

You guys over there just wait. 2012 had to be balanced out and you're gonna get "balanced out" sooner than later as well..