RogueWaves

I will be in NWMI for this, so I'm pulling strongly for the south/colder models/trends to win out. 0z NAM, SLR & Kuchera by order:

I think your post over there in his thread was dead-on for Chicago, it's a 50-50 dice toss going forward after such a snowy pre-season. My gut tells me that while ENSO/SST/Oscillations are indeed less than stellar verbatim, some items he mentions may indeed come through in the end. One of significance being the MJO. Notably here, 4 of the last 7 Novembers have had BIG snow totals against my 1.2" long-term avg. Sometimes in one huge storm, other times in multiple lesser events. During that same 7 years, 3 Dec's have been complete "no shows", but I've also scored 3 huge Dec's with 2019 looming as the "tie breaker" thus a microcosm of your analog list for Chi-town snowy winters. I won't say this December will make or break the entire winter, but it could go a long ways toward helping this winter stand out from the crowd.

But that's one helluva base!

Gonna be a snoozefest around here for the foreseeable future. So tough to get early sustained winter thru the heart of this sub. When it did happen (2000) that WAS winter.

LOL, MSP under a WSWatch a mere hours after storm #1 ends..

Heading to NMI this weekend. CPC seems on board with a plowable event up there. Will be nice if they're correct.

SSW gone wrong, sigh..

Just missing an EC bomb for the Trifecta. Can't imagine that's ever happened tho..

Another beating for the WMI shoreline .MARINE... Issued at 423 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019 The only change to the forecast is to upgrade the gale watch to a storm watch for our nearshore zones--otherwise, the forecast is on track. A strong fall storm system will impact the Great Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday. Southwesterly winds will increase to gales to 45 kts Wednesday morning and become westerly storm-force winds with gusts at or above 50 kts Wednesday afternoon. *Sustained* westerly gale force winds Wednesday afternoon which will lead to waves of 10 to 15 feet directed directly toward the Lake Michigan shore. The highest winds and waves are expected to occur in a zone from Muskegon to Benton Harbor between 1 PM and 8 PM (the waves will lag a tad later). Note that confidence in this event is high with ECMWF ensemble probabilities of a gale force wind gust at 100% and storm-force wind gust at 80%. Conditions will gradually improve overnight into Thursday.

Best case scenario is that a weaker lead wave could tug the thermal boundary south enough enough so the main wave ejects further south.

Fantastic! Enjoy that.

Yep, fun week even if we're not in the snowy side (most of us)

Let's keep dropping 10 or 12 mb off each storm as they track thru the Lakes. Eventually one of these will be cold enough to deliver the real-deal LES event. (may also erode the lakeshore to mby at the same time)

D*mn! That west coast system is potent. I'd like to believe it could trend more winter-friendly for us in the Lwr Lakes but the lead system that's going to destroy the lakeshore as you say, doesn't really pull cold air southward like I was hoping.

12z NAM trying for sideways white rain Wed afternoon

I guess with 2 storms in our general vicinity already (10/31 & 11/11), we get to sit on the sidelines for a bit.

..just 4 fun

Perhaps, but how often do you get to even see such wx model details in this corner of the world? Let alone by the Euro. GFS & NAM typically over blow scenarios left and right as we know. I smell a non-bust..

I can live with all 3 options. APX reminds that the energy driving this is still 1,000 miles away.

purdy

CFS reading you loud-n-clear there OHweather

One of his best wrt graphics and content. Some real seasons of yore for cold/snow in his analog list too. With 4 of 5 storm tracks favorable to The Lakes, calls for "snowverload" may not be an exaggeration.

ICON-ic snows!

GRR = "Meh" DTX = "stay tuned!" Wonder how many times we'll be here this upcoming winter?

Yep, zero shortage of action going forward. Just get some cold infusions and all things winter will get rolling. Personally, I like winter to set in and stay. Not a fan of the 7-10 day blast, followed by 4-6 weeks of ho-hum. I'll make use of this pattern reload period to finish up my holiday decorating, then I'm ready to see more of these: