RogueWaves

GEFS seem to be somewhat correcting it's progressive bias, another good sign that this may just come back

12z GEM out to the 14th (h240) Eastern Lakes and upstate NY are buried. What we get isn't exactly chump change

haha can't imagine why??

Not sure on other models, but 12z GFS definitely filled in the MichINDOH region nicely.

Mowed my lawn yesterday. Summer annuals still presenting color, and my rose bush has 4 blooming flowers. Still plenty of leafs on trees as well. Highs may be running 10F under, but lows definitely are not, at least around my region.

Not sure if you're a fan of analogs or not, but most of the serious ones include such. Some, if you go way back would be on the historic/epic level. As you mentioned, we've already seen the all-time October low temp record set for the CONUS. Not to mention all those records from 1917 that Denver's been knocking off left and right. I personally feel there's a good shot at it. And I don't mean a 1 or 3 day PV swing-thru seen last January and in Jan 2014.

..saved that for posterity. If only..

Here are some of the snowiest Octobers at Grand Rapids Michigan. Most went on to be good to in some cases great winters for cold-n-snow. '67 and '97 Nino's being the exception. 1967 8.4” 1925 7.5” 1989 5.8” 1917 3.0” 1962 2.6” 1997 2.6” 1992 2.4” 2006 2.1”

That's what holiday lights are for..

Per the BSR, beastly stuff looms down the road a bit.

/\ OUCH!

I'm sure peeps thought the same after 77-78. Then we got 81-82 just four years later. Can't rule anything out tbh.

Was that the 24/12z ICON that showed those gusts at 850?

"There is an 850 mb max upwards of 75 kts in lower MI at 192 hours, most of which would probably mix down given the situation with a rapidly bombing low. There is quick deepening and then there is what we are seeing on models like the Euro (and ICON), which is on a different level." Per Hoosier's read on the winds at 850 mixing down in SWMI. I'm too far inland to score much snow as it stands now, so mainly just the winds. 11-17-13 was the snow-less version and the whole town went dark.

Power grid looks to be a disaster. NOT excited about backside flurries and multi-day power outage scenario - pass!

Lots to sort out, but I appreciate the historical comparison/context. As noted, the latitude of the CSB may never be equaled. I mean, lots of storms hit 950mb way up in the Bering Sea for instance. But down where people live?, nasso much. GRR notes 3 systems on tap in their pm AFD including possible winter impacts from next week's. If this is the winter trend, that's gonna be one heck of a busy office.

23/12z GFS @ 500mb = eye-popping loop for next week's system.

10-26-97 delivered a hvy 8" in Kzoo. Tree damage was extensive! This one has low party @ A-L-E-K's place written all over it, so main concern on this side of the lake looks to be more wind and wave damage. NOT a good time to be a WMI lakeshore property owner.

Yep. 1st flake icon of the new season in my grid

On behalf of the lakeshore, glad the Euro was wrong in this case. It will be bad enough as-is! .DISCUSSION...(Today through next Sunday) Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Another fall storm system will affect the region over the course of the next 36 to 48 hours. We finally have some consensus with the depth of the low, in the 980`s mb`s, over Wisconsin. Yesterday a run of the ECMWF deterministic had a 975mb low over Wisconsin. Now both the GFS and ECMWF are in the low 980`s. Still a formidable low by Great Lakes fall standards. A reason why this will be a bit more impactful in terms of winds along the lakeshore is that the low in Wisconsin pinwheels towards us late tonight into Tuesday morning. this will place the tightest pressure gradient right over Lake Michigan. See details in the marine section on the Gale Warning and Lakeshore Flood Warning that are now in place. We may need to consider a Wind Advisory on the land in the lakeshore counties for especially on Tuesday. At this point holding off on that, but the day shift may need to consider it.

TOR warning at the airport in Dallas shortly ago. Apparently confirmed. Not sure of strength/size tho.

I just like the theme. Systems strengthening in our sub. West and eastward too. That run may be the old GooFuS doing it's thing, but there have been a lot of wound-up storms already, and most, other than the MT and ND bliz's haven't really even had cold air infusion going for them. I think it's a good sign going forward.

/\ on 2nd thought, maybe things won't even wait til Nov?

NHemi Snowcover is like 2SD's above avg, and Canada looks to fill-up rapidly with snow in the next couple weeks. Won't be much to put the brakes on an early onset of that. Get ready! Cohen's blog today mentioning a slight perturbation of the PV last week of October and the CFS has a very eastern trough look for Nov. Last Nov here was no. 3 all-time for snow, with no. 1 all-time just a few miles to my west. I thought we'd get back to dull boring Nov's per the norm this year. Not so sure about that now.

Bound to happen sooner than later. Can't keep up the non-stop flooding forever. Also, can't buy a balanced stretch of wx. It's gotta go flipping extreme one direction then the other. My 2 cents fwiw