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RogueWaves

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Everything posted by RogueWaves

  1. RogueWaves
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkQTUP7ZEWU&list=UUc9YCB6iO5jmBtQ6yALZMiQ&index=3&t=0s
  2. RogueWaves
    You're gonna get owned this winter..
  3. RogueWaves
    07/12z JMA said "go big or go home"! Sure wish there was a snowfall map to go along with
  4. RogueWaves
    Should swap roles. Promote the NAM to Global status, and demote GFS to "inside 48 hrs"
  5. RogueWaves
    Looking like it. That 17" death band I experienced was unforgettable. Has to rank at or near the top for best rates/lowest vis personally witnessed.
  6. RogueWaves
    Depending on where your line is drawn for the "early start" threshold will make a difference in the outcome. For SMI (not including LES belt counties) I consider anything noteworthy before Dec 10th as qualifying. List of good early starters (post-70s era glory days) = 89-90, 95-96, 00-01, 04-05, 08-09, 09-10, 13-14 Not all early starters are a death knell "used to refer to the imminent destruction or failure of something"
  7. RogueWaves
    iirc, GEFS had a hot hand last winter too. I'd lean on them over the OP any day
  8. RogueWaves
    Eerily similar month in progress to Nov '13 when my work place was ground zero for a similar LES set-up 11/12/13. Analog para's are getting spooky.
  9. RogueWaves
    GEFS seem to be somewhat correcting it's progressive bias, another good sign that this may just come back
  10. RogueWaves
    12z GEM out to the 14th (h240) Eastern Lakes and upstate NY are buried. What we get isn't exactly chump change
  11. RogueWaves
    haha can't imagine why??
  12. RogueWaves
    Not sure on other models, but 12z GFS definitely filled in the MichINDOH region nicely.
  13. RogueWaves
    Not sure if you're a fan of analogs or not, but most of the serious ones include such. Some, if you go way back would be on the historic/epic level. As you mentioned, we've already seen the all-time October low temp record set for the CONUS. Not to mention all those records from 1917 that Denver's been knocking off left and right. I personally feel there's a good shot at it. And I don't mean a 1 or 3 day PV swing-thru seen last January and in Jan 2014.
  14. RogueWaves
    ..saved that for posterity. If only..
  15. RogueWaves
    Here are some of the snowiest Octobers at Grand Rapids Michigan. Most went on to be good to in some cases great winters for cold-n-snow. '67 and '97 Nino's being the exception. 1967 8.4” 1925 7.5” 1989 5.8” 1917 3.0” 1962 2.6” 1997 2.6” 1992 2.4” 2006 2.1”
  16. RogueWaves
    That's what holiday lights are for..
  17. RogueWaves
    Per the BSR, beastly stuff looms down the road a bit.
  18. RogueWaves
    /\ OUCH!
  19. RogueWaves
    I'm sure peeps thought the same after 77-78. Then we got 81-82 just four years later. Can't rule anything out tbh.
  20. RogueWaves
    Was that the 24/12z ICON that showed those gusts at 850?
  21. RogueWaves
    "There is an 850 mb max upwards of 75 kts in lower MI at 192 hours, most of which would probably mix down given the situation with a rapidly bombing low. There is quick deepening and then there is what we are seeing on models like the Euro (and ICON), which is on a different level." Per Hoosier's read on the winds at 850 mixing down in SWMI. I'm too far inland to score much snow as it stands now, so mainly just the winds. 11-17-13 was the snow-less version and the whole town went dark.
  22. RogueWaves
    Power grid looks to be a disaster. NOT excited about backside flurries and multi-day power outage scenario - pass!
  23. RogueWaves
    Lots to sort out, but I appreciate the historical comparison/context. As noted, the latitude of the CSB may never be equaled. I mean, lots of storms hit 950mb way up in the Bering Sea for instance. But down where people live?, nasso much. GRR notes 3 systems on tap in their pm AFD including possible winter impacts from next week's. If this is the winter trend, that's gonna be one heck of a busy office.
  24. RogueWaves
    23/12z GFS @ 500mb = eye-popping loop for next week's system.
  25. RogueWaves
    10-26-97 delivered a hvy 8" in Kzoo. Tree damage was extensive! This one has low party @ A-L-E-K's place written all over it, so main concern on this side of the lake looks to be more wind and wave damage. NOT a good time to be a WMI lakeshore property owner.
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