RogueWaves

With it so focused in Metro Detroit, one has to wonder if the large Muslim community and it's ties to their native lands has anything to do with it? Citing the "Shoe Bomber" incident, you have to presume there's a fair amount of air travellers that come into/out of DTW to that part of the globe. Edit: Not to mention U of M Ann Arbor has a large foreign student population!

Bill Gates on coronavirus: 'Extreme shutdown' of 6 to 10 weeks needed

Watched a Youtube vid posted by a young lady (early 30's) who's been basically in lock-down inside her apartment "flat" in Lombard, Italy. One of the hardest hit cities. To get "out" for a breath of fresh air, she went to the roof top open space. She noticed another young woman playing her guitar on the adjacent building roof. She yelled over and they chatted a bit about the situation. Then the gal with the guitar heaved something across to the gal filming. What'd she throw? A wooden clothespin with a cigarette clamped into it. Guessing the word's not out wrt the hazards of the habit..

@ Hoosier Also mentioned in news reports. Italy (and Japan) have (or did in Italy's case) the highest population of elderly Peeps. Smoking's still the rage in Italy as well. Factors not helping their odds

This entire scenario should give Poly-Sci majors an endless supply of Thesis fodder. Can we prove it's not already been "around" and most have been/are already exposed? Can we prove these measures halting the economy will actually make the final toll lower, or just stretch the whole thing out with the same number of fatalities? Can we prove that when all is said and done, there won't be just as many "incidental casualties" due to a myriad of socio-economic factors ranging from increased suicides to loss of funding for social "safety net" organizations? If we can prove such, then I say let's stay home indefinitely! In absence of hard proof, it comes down to a compromise and somebody's best judgement after weighing (or attempting to) all the factors against one another. Glad I'm not that person tbh..

More like "test confirmations are coming to us all". Now that everyone with a slight cough/sneeze/wheeze fears they might have "it" they will go in for testing. Especially if they're off work and just hanging out anyways. Without the isolation situation, they'd be like "I wish I could afford the time and (lost) pay to go into my doc and get this checked out, but sh*t, Jimmie's got to get to school 'cause his team's playing an away game this afternoon, and I've got work and a plan with sis afterwards. Maybe I'll go later if it gets a lot worse.."

I had adult Chicken Pox when I was 19. Thought I was gonna die. Was quarantined for weeks and had to be snuck into my doctor's office through the back door. Had so many pox on my head/face my own mother was aghast to see me. Guess I've survived a few things in life that were anything but a cake walk. What don't kill ya makes one stronger as they say..

Could you imagine being stuck in a far away country where that was the scenario? Glad to be riding this out in the familiar comfort of my own home.

Can always play the "what if" game, but I'm choosing to remain optimistic. Just because a storm hits mby with intensity, doesn't mean it maintains that same intensity all the way to yby. Similarly, just because other places around the globe have been hit hard with this virus does not mean it automatically will here as well. And if it did, I'd hope the medical service outlets (hospitals, etc) would figure out a way to send supply reinforcements to the front lines where the battle rages the worst. Hospitals with few or no severe cases could lend their respirators and such to hospitals that find themselves with a shortage of such. Even if the govt had to mandate this, it seems like a reasonable option imho. Look at MI, 14 of 15 deaths in Metro Detroit. Quite a concentrated event so far and with this isolation effort I'll be surprised if that somehow reverses and takes off like a wildfire raging out of control across the countryside.

Per my Congressman's newsletter

More concerned about the "death rate" of confirmed cases. That thankfully has flat-lined at 1.3% in the US, meaning the odds are still vastly in favor of survival. IF the DR was really taking off, then I'd be a lot more concerned. As is, these current totals, while still early, give us some hope. As others have posted, I'm at least as concerned about the net effects to the economy. I'm fortunate to be employed in the food service sector and have Work Authorization papers if I need to travel into my place of employ. But here in the Mitt, over 108K applied for UIA benefits last week, a 2100% increase from a typical week in the prior robust economy. Hoping this doesn't go on too long for the sake of those hit hardest.

this

Takes very little to push a teetering person over a cliff. Just sayin. Talk about compromised!

And if you remove the "olds" the survival rate is likely closer to 98%. As a cancer survivor, I'll take those odds any day of my life! Idk where Peeps come from, thinking life's a guaranteed 100% survival rate kind of journey?

I heard radar was down for that storm. Can prolly toss that one..

^^ The great OHV snow year

Early on, iirc, his top analogs included 13-14, 14-15, & 18-19 (way back in August perhaps). His inner weenie got the better of him and he kept running with the coldest of that trio (for our region at least) when he'd have done best to hug an even warmer version of 18-19. As autumn progressed he went bolder with the colder, dragging up 92-93 & 02-03 weenie winter analogs for his region especially. Personally I would've preferred that he was correct and it was a colder if not epic snowy DJF here.

And waaay too warm. Hard to believe that's a mid-winter scenario

13th day of snow cover up my way. Not only a record for this lame winter, but a pleasant shock as well after all the rain and days above freezing here.

Thx to a 2" score today, I'm already beating last Dec's total. And, I'm at 20% of my seasonal avg on 12/10. Amazing what looking out on nice white ground can do for one's perception of the young winter. The holiday cheer-O-meter saw a big spike today.

2013 to date vs current season to date comparison. Looks to my tired eyes that we be out-pacing at this early stage: 2013-14 Season. Yeah, I could do 8+ feet again

I'd be real leery of getting burned by a d10 suppression scenario off the GFS - just sayin'. But ok, Memphis is going from zero winter to 2 feet..

I think your post over there in his thread was dead-on for Chicago, it's a 50-50 dice toss going forward after such a snowy pre-season. My gut tells me that while ENSO/SST/Oscillations are indeed less than stellar verbatim, some items he mentions may indeed come through in the end. One of significance being the MJO. Notably here, 4 of the last 7 Novembers have had BIG snow totals against my 1.2" long-term avg. Sometimes in one huge storm, other times in multiple lesser events. During that same 7 years, 3 Dec's have been complete "no shows", but I've also scored 3 huge Dec's with 2019 looming as the "tie breaker" thus a microcosm of your analog list for Chi-town snowy winters. I won't say this December will make or break the entire winter, but it could go a long ways toward helping this winter stand out from the crowd.

/\ on 2nd thought, maybe things won't even wait til Nov?

NHemi Snowcover is like 2SD's above avg, and Canada looks to fill-up rapidly with snow in the next couple weeks. Won't be much to put the brakes on an early onset of that. Get ready! Cohen's blog today mentioning a slight perturbation of the PV last week of October and the CFS has a very eastern trough look for Nov. Last Nov here was no. 3 all-time for snow, with no. 1 all-time just a few miles to my west. I thought we'd get back to dull boring Nov's per the norm this year. Not so sure about that now.