RogueWaves

I never thought I really had a shot with this, but on the off chance it came my way I had the not too lofty goal of doubling my largest even of 2". For mby, anything >4" will be a big win.

Surprised that with all the chatta about winds that S Lk Michigan isn't under a Storm Watch vs a Gale Watch.

PB! Hope your holiday visit was good. Yep, you moved one winter too soon. Not sure if Detroit proper gets in on this early one but there should be some thump-tastic rippage somewhere in SMI. Hoping to be included in that zone. Today should set the expectation. GRR not putting us under at least an SWS is no surprise tho.

Well, adjusting for seasonal month of November, these maps need to be taken with a grain of salt. Having said that, it should be interesting for sure!

Yeah, this is NOVEMBER for crying out loud. Even in the Northland, late Nov storms will rain along the W coast of Lk Huron. Places like Alpena and Oscoda get totally screwed on these early season specials.

And WAY better than a zzzz-fest pattern. I think it pained Bastardi a few days ago in his daily update to circle the midwest and WMI as a region likely to get slammed with a bliz

Not sure they did in 16-17, but yes, the S GL's region (and I share a lot of what hits Chicago-land) has been enjoying a great couple of decades in this century. Won't argue that.

They've had several crap winters now in a row without a decent storm. I said this year they'd be due..

What time does the EC run?

Could love me some thump transition snow if things go favorably. GRR's afternoon AFD seemed encouraging. They like the follow-on LES as the ULL does it's same loop-de-loop over the E Lakes. Seems to be a theme so far this early cold season. IF we can ever get one of these when it's cold enough for snow front and back sides, it could be quite the event for parts of SWMI. But, back to this system and it's wet front end

Strange season, strange pattern. Were those the same odds that STL would be leading the MW in snowfall in mid-Nov?

I was referring to winter's (Autumn's) that featured significant snow and cold in November. Those two are benchmarks where I was at the time. NMI in '95 and Michianna in '00. This one has begun like those so far. There are others ofc like Nov of '14 if you lived in the right LES region, but we know how that rubber band snapped back in December. Very difficult to sustain a cold November right thru winter. That was my point. And yes, ofc '13-14 set the mark for DJF but Nov had it's major swings.

It's very accurate here. That "7" that is right over mby compared to 7.4" I have measured so far. Fwiw, all of these snow total maps tend to miss the tenth here, or tenth there that lands on my deck so I make allowances for that. Still damned impressive technology at our finger tips in this era.

Rather it just stayed cold. Just going to make the next plunge feel even more brutal. Besides, I have snow OTG

Lakes get warmed up. To normal, lol. The Plains will bounce, that's just how they roll. Models to play catch-up all winter, much as they did in 2013-14. Beware The Blob

1.5 smi vis under mod SN as of 8:15 pm. Snow on snow Nov 12th. Incredible. HRRR liked me for 2" per 18z

12z Euro still taking a favorable track up the OHV..

Very rate dependent with such marginal thermals. At least it'll be wintery and flakes flying, if not adding up too deep at this point. Gotta start somewhere, and this would be at least a month earlier than we might typically get cold enough to track system snow vs just LES

DeMoines AFD mentioning TSSN and Squall headlines possible with the Clipper Friday into Saturday. Somebody could get some intense if short-lived conditions.

Guess I've experienced more than a handful of memorable storms. The more I thought, the more came back to me. #8) Bliz of Jan 13-15 '79 Another winter, another blizzard. So went the years of my youth. This one delivered 15" where I grew up in SEMI and was a wetter heavier snow than the icy cold bliz a year before. I remember many snow days off from school during the active winter of 78-79. A friend and I even used snowshoes on the deep drifts. #7) Bliz of Dec 2000 In S. Bend we got a legit bliz warning and scored 13" of snow. I knew a storm was possible so I arose early (before the 6 am news) and switched on my trusty NOAA Wx radio to catch the updated morning forecast from IWX. I was geeked when I heard WSWarning for the daytime followed by a Blizzard Warning beginning in the evening. It was a great storm that was everything it was forecasted to be. Played out exactly as forecasted. #6) Super Bowl Super snowstorm of Feb 1-2 '15 2nd winter in a row that delivered an 18" snow here in Marshall. Just a non-stop long duration snow fall that brought us another deep snow cover in SMI. While the winds were sub-bliz conditions, we did get some legit bliz conditions a couple weeks later on Valentine's Day. #5) PV Bliz of Jan 4-6 '14 My first CAT-4 storm in 15 yrs brought a solid 18" on top of existing snow cover of 3-4" for a 20+ depth. The deepest I'd seen since moving to Marshall in '02. Cleaning my driveway in -41F windchill on the evening of the 6th will always be tattooed on my psyche! #4) Bliz of Nov 16-17 '89 Deer camp bliz that buried NMI with 12-24" after it transitioned from rain to snow. The winds were ferocious as the SLP bombed to 964 mbs near James Bay Ontario. My trusty NOAA wx radio kept us abreast of happenings as we were in a small rental cabin without so much as a b&w television. The broadcast was out of KAPN and I remember vividly that the Presque Isle Light on Lake Huron was reporting Gusts to 91 knots! The winds raging thru the forest was insanely loud. I'm pretty certain those were the strongest winds for The Mitt since the great one in Jan '78. #3) Bliz of Jan 1-3 '99 My place in S. Bend was slammed with 20" and drifts up to 40" and I was on the edge of the actual city limits. There was upwards of 27" just north in MI where I worked due to the follow-on LES. Blizz of '99 was the last classic bliz for me personally with large flakes, low vis, consistently high winds causing widespread road closures and disruption for 1-2 weeks in rural areas. #2) April 2-3 '75 Not sure if there was TSSN as posted above where I lived, but the flakes were massive fatties and the storm dumped 18" of concrete in about 17 hrs. Everything was at a stand still. Later the next day the sun came out and it was 52F but the piles of pure white snow lasted well past green-up which was unique. Playing on snow piles and going to little league practice a couple weeks later was memorable. My sister and her husband borrowed his parent's snowmobiles and rescued stranded motorists on the state highway all night. They rode them over later the next day to tell us all about their adventures. #1) Bliz of Jan 26-28 '78 I was a 13 yr old eighth grader and don't remember even being aware of a "storm watch" being in effect. My father wasn't one to let the weather interfere with his work, but that day he stayed home which made the occasion immediately memorable. We lived on the edge of a town and our 'hood was surrounded by farm fields. I remember there were massive drifts over the hedge rows and we would climb up about 8-10 feet and then the snow would give way and we would end up down inside an igloo of sorts. There was one apple tree that must've been a good 12 foot tall and it supported a drift that my buddy could ride his snowmobile over the top of it. There was literally a trail over the tree where previously nobody could go due to the farmer's fencing along his field. These kind of wx events are unforgettable as we are lucky if they happen once in our lifetimes.

And most of S Michigan went to Bliz warned after this.

Don't have a precip map handy, but I'm almost certain GHD1 covered even more (in the CONUS vs Canada I mean).

My future is indeed looking a bit more flakey

Not a bad 16 day Mean off the NCEP either. Heck, we've had Decembers when we dreamed of seeing this:

Looks to shed about 15 or 16 mb's in 24 hrs from then as it turns the corner and heads NNE into Canada. I like the looks of the cold punch on the backside coming across S Lk Michigan with a really nice fetch for getting stuff further inland: