RogueWaves

Climo sucks

That's for their entire CWA, not just downtown city of Cleveland. Did I need to tell SEMI Peeps the obvious that the LES talk meant Lake Erie? The winds are to be strong not just along the lakeshore(s)

For SEMI Crew. This recent update from CLE might as well be for us. Presuming the SLP tracks overhead or slightly NW, we will get the treatment CLE got with '78. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- All eyes remain on the intense storm system expected to impact the entire Ohio Valley and Great Lakes regions Thursday into the start of the holiday weekend. The main messages, as well as the most certain aspects of this event, continue to be rapidly falling temperatures late Thursday night through Friday leading to rain changing to snow and a flash freeze, damaging winds, and extreme cold, both in terms of actual air temperature and wind chill, that will worsen through the day Friday and Friday night. What is more uncertain is how much snow will fall once the rain changes to snow on Friday with differences in model guidance giving ranges from a few inches to over a foot. It is important to note that no matter how much snow falls on Friday, the damaging winds with this system (likely topping 60 mph given the rapidly intensifying low and extreme cold advection), will blow the snow into drifts and easily create white out conditions. It would only take a few hours of falling snow to realize true blizzard conditions with that wind and the rapidly falling temperatures. When you combine that with dangerous wind chill values worsening as the day wears on, this will be a very dangerous storm no matter what. Those with travel plans on Friday should be flexible and stay tuned to the latest updates. We will transition to lake-effect snow behind the system as it lifts north through Ontario Friday night and Saturday, lingering through Sunday, but uncertainty with wind direction (west vs southwest) makes it impossible to pinpoint if the bands will impact NE Ohio and NW PA or if they will stay in western NY. What is certain is that bitter cold temperatures and dangerous wind chills will continue through the weekend with highs in the teens Saturday and Sunday and lows well into the single digits both nights. Wind chill values may get as low as -15 to -20 early in the weekend. Now for a little more on the evolution of the storm, today`s 12Z model runs have actually reverted back to being out of sync with each other. This is unfortunate because it makes the timing of the rain/snow changeover and the amount of snow we will receive highly uncertain; even more uncertain than 24 hours ago. The big mid/upper trough and associated pool of arctic air, originating in Siberia, digs into the Plains Thursday. As it does, a 160+ knot H3 jet diving into the base of the trough will cause it to tilt strongly negative while cascading into the Midwest Thursday night while will lead to a rapidly deepening surface low somewhere in the vicinity of Indiana or western Ohio. Because the trough axis deepens all the way to the Gulf coast, it will also scoop up additional southern stream energy late Thursday. This will further aid in the deepening process allowing the northern and southern streams to phase over the western Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. This will result in a rare "bombing out" of the surface low to take place right over our area as the mid/upper trough closes off, with the whole system then pinwheeling north through the central Great Lakes Friday and Friday night. It is the bombing out that has us so concerned about damaging winds once the arctic front plows through the area. Most guidance has the low at least reaching the sub 975 mb range as it lifts just north of our region, so this very tight pressure gradient combined the jet energy and intense cold air advection will easily support 60+ mph wind gusts. This will down trees and power lines and result in widespread power outages, which is a worst case scenario given the extreme cold. In terms of the snow, today`s 12Z guidance is making this even more uncertain due to timing and track differences. The new GFS came in a solid 6 hours slower and now phases the system over the Ohio Valley/lower lakes Friday afternoon. This would delay the rain to snow changeover to almost midday Friday, with the heaviest snow potentially not falling until Friday evening. The ECMWF maintains a late Thursday night phasing and keeps the changeover to snow consistent with the Friday morning timing, but it tracks the low across west Michigan which would bring a dry slot into the area after an initial burst of snow, with heavier snow from the trowel not arriving until later in the day. The RGEM is in the middle with timing, but it tracks the low toward the eastern Great Lakes as it bombs out through the day Friday. This solution would give us the most snow but may lessen the winds slightly. Any of these solutions will lead to snow, high winds, and brutal cold developing Friday into Friday night, but the amount of snow that actually falls is the biggest question mark. To summarize, warm air advection ahead of the deepening trough Thursday will warm temps into the upper 30s, so precipitation driven by broad warm/moist advection and isentropic ascent will fall as a rain/snow mix, with rain being the dominant p-type Thursday. Rain will rapidly change to snow late Thursday night or Friday morning, depending on timing of the arctic front, with a burst of snow and flash freeze likely. Winds will steadily increase Thursday night from the SE and become damaging by Friday morning as they veer to the W to SW in the cold advection behind the front. Snow will fill back in at some point Friday morning or afternoon after a lull behind the initial burst, with blizzard conditions possible through the day and extensive blowing/drifting, even though exact snow amounts are in question. Temperatures will fall through the teens Friday afternoon and will continue to fall through the single digits Friday night with dangerous wind chill values. The synoptic snow will transition to pure lake-effect Friday night through Sunday east of Cleveland, but to what extent the main band gets into our region remains unclear. It is possible that a SW component to the wind keeps it mainly over western NY most of the weekend, but lingering wind and arctic cold will keep conditions hazardous. -- End Changed Discussion -- &&

DTX has had way more detailed write-ups than some other offices tbh.

There were zero "null" outcomes iirc was some other portion. I read that as "not a matter of if, just where" as you say. 18z GFS was a real loser here, eh?

Interesting that DTX calling this "straightforward"

Marshall, about 10 mi east. Speaking of BC I wonder when we will hear from Harry. He stands in a good position to add another trophy storm alongside last month's

We don't know. NAM hasn't run yet

Front comes through strong then it kinda lets off the throttle some

2004 for sure. SOHV Big Dog grazed SEMI

Nice SEMI donut hole.

Old home: New home: This place blows

I think the modern era Festivus hit for DTW is the 8.5" on 12-23-04. I know someone who will gladly correct if I'm wrong. Cue MSF

We had a GHD-3?? Really?? Joke storms in Feb for mby. Shouldn't even be mentioned in the same category with the orig GHD's

If we could lock that in, I'd be a satisfied camper. Frog Town trying to infuse some anti-collapse aroma into the thread. Appreciated it.

Sigh. Yep, and a month too early in the season to even treat us a little more favorably via climo. I think I liked sitting in these boards dreaming of a monster storm much more than one coming along and scraping me with scraps. Hoping, perhaps in futility for some last-minute miracle like a favorable occlusion, stalling, etc. Can't hold my breath on it tho.

GFS being either way too gifting with the subtle shunt east for SEMI, or it is another Grinch tease as it pulls the rug in the next 24 hrs and we suck dry slotting with the SLP running up our arse

Yeah, well who wouldn't, right? Saved Kuchera maps for all-time model weenie clownage for SMI. Now we trend lower and lower as the GFS continues to fold to King Euro and blasts S Lake Mich region. Not a good sign for SEMI if MQT is pumped for a NW trend

Yep, Chicago Special yet again. Going to join the EC and EOHV weenies over in the consolation thread. Sigh

0z Euro is a Scrooge storm for the ages over here in SEMI. Wave bye-bye as the GFS's westward movement towards the EC's portrayal continues. We're the dryslot capital remember. You in AA ofc might have less concerns. Two prior biggies for SMI had a horrid cut-off east of your area.

Another WV SLP (OH Special). Need to thread the needle with an SLP crossing mid-or slightly east in Lk Erie

Sounds like here, lol

Says my limit is 1.95MB. Wondering why, and how it could be so much lower than yours. And how to get it fixed. Truncated run I wanted to post is still about 2.4MB

Cleared my attachment history, but having file size issue. How big are those files?

I don't hate the GFS 18z. Deepens too late to be a massive bomb storm, but would appear to keep the mixy stuff away. Strong and west I get to perhaps witness some wild atmospheric phenomena, more pedestrian and east gets me a nice timely Christmas gift. I don't mind where I sit either.