wolfie09

Through 1am.. As of last update kfzy was 37° and rain, so not sure this is going to verify lol This Afternoon Snow showers before 4pm, then rain and snow showers. High near 36. West wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Tonight Snow showers, mainly before 11pm. Low around 27. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Euro is complex and messy thanksgiving week..

The following are 24 hour snowfall totals from early Monday morning through early Tuesday morning. ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...New York... ...Allegany County... West Almond 3.6 SW 5.8 in 0700 AM 11/16 COCORAHS Wellsville 2.4 ENE 3.7 in 0700 AM 11/16 COCORAHS Rushford 2.0 in 0625 AM 11/16 COOP Wellsville 1.0 in 0500 AM 11/16 COOP ...Cattaraugus County... Franklinville 3.5 E 8.0 in 0700 AM 11/16 COCORAHS Franklinville 0.5 NNE 5.5 in 0740 AM 11/16 COCORAHS Ischua 0.4 SSE 2.1 in 0700 AM 11/16 COCORAHS Randolph 1.1 ENE 2.0 in 0650 AM 11/16 COCORAHS Cattaraugus 3W 1.3 in 0700 AM 11/16 COOP Little Valley 1.0 in 0700 AM 11/16 COOP ...Chautauqua County... Jamestown 4ENE 3.0 in 0700 AM 11/16 COOP Falconer 0.3 WSW 3.0 in 0700 AM 11/16 COCORAHS Gerry 0.8 N 2.1 in 0730 AM 11/16 COCORAHS Dewittville 1.0 SSE 1.0 in 0600 AM 11/16 COCORAHS Mayville 0.2 ESE 0.8 in 0700 AM 11/16 COCORAHS ...Lewis County... Highmarket 2W 1.5 in 0600 AM 11/16 COOP Constableville 1.2 NW 1.0 in 0400 AM 11/16 COCORAHS Chases Lake 0.6 in 0600 AM 11/16 COOP ...Oswego County... Redfield 8N 0.7 in 0700 AM 11/16 COOP ...Wyoming County... Portageville 1W 0.2 in 0700 AM 11/16 COOP

Eventually a surface low will develop on the cold front as the mid- level trough becomes negatively tilted and closed off over the region/Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic Monday. The location of the surface low will be highly dependent on the mid-level trough and dictate, winds, precipitation, and etc. While the exact specifics can`t be nailed down as of yet due to subtle differences between 00Z model runs, am fairly confident that this system will set up as ensemble models are beginning to point out the trough and surface low as anomalous.

Halfway through the month the Pulaski COOP is at +0.4° with already over 4" of precipitation.. Some guidance like the euro/rgem have another 1.5"-1.75" during the week.. Hopefully this wetness carries into next month lol

Lol.. Would never happen but funny nonetheless..

More heavy graupel showers mixed with some flakes..

Overnight the Georgian Bay connection will migrate to southeast of Lake Ontario, with high-res guidance suggesting a dominant band will develop over Wayne/Cayuga County and extend into the Syracuse area. Temperatures are still marginal for accumulation across lower elevations, but if the precipitation rate intensifies enough in this dominant band there may be 1-2 inches of slushy accumulation. This lake effect band will persist through Tuesday afternoon, drifting slowly east/northeast into Oswego County. Warming boundary layer temperatures will allow rain to mix in by Tuesday afternoon, likely ending any snow accumulation.

Give it time, winds will back it north overnight/early AM..

Well it there..At 966mb lol

Obviously can't take those numbers at face value, especially considering meso guidance is showing temperatures above freezing throughout the night..Kuchera is about half of those 10-1 maps.. Either way you have your first shot at a light accumulation.. Kbgm from this morning..

Been getting a lot of graupel in these events..Here was last event..

Continues to see graupel in bunches lol Coated the deck .

Getting a bunch of graupel Imby.. Euro for Thursday/Friday fwiw.. Obviously this isn't how much will actually stick.. Icon Friday morning..

Call them out on FB haha

Tues AM on the rgem/3k , could be close for the"southern" guys...

I actually think it's a little lower now, snowing and sticking at Adams center, mannsville in Jefferson county as well as just east of 81 in Oswego county.. Around 600'-650' ASL..

Seeing a mix of rain with some mangled flakes, temp still 38°. With the southerly breeze all that sizzle sizzle from cuse travels up the 81 corridor lol Some light accumulation just to the east, near Altmar/Williamstown..

The storm system that will impact our region this period is currently found over the Gulf of Alaska. This upper low will cross the western and central US early this week, and drive a cold front across our region Thursday. Rain showers upon this front will pass across our region Thursday...with the models a tad slower with the frontal passage, possibly allowing all of our region to top out in the 50s before cold air advection Thursday night and through the remainder of the week sends temperatures back below normal and supports a lake effect response. Temperatures dipping to -8 to -9C at 850 hPa Friday and Friday Night will support accumulating snows to the east and southeast of the Lakes.

Another event with temps in the mid-upper 30s, granted the timing stinks.. Obviously I'd take the snow over rain if possible lol

Precipitation type will be mainly snow in most areas late this afternoon and tonight, although there may be some rain mixed in at the onset before evaporative cooling takes hold and cools the boundary layer. Accumulations will be relatively minor late this afternoon through tonight, limited by warm surface temperatures and poor snow:water ratios. Expect the greatest accumulations across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier and Boston Hills, with 2- 3 inches. Expect around an inch for the Niagara Frontier, and less than an inch from the Genesee Valley eastward to the lower elevations east of Lake Ontario. The Tug Hill Plateau will see 2-4 inches tonight, greatest across the southern end with local southerly upslope enhancement.

Another marginal event coming up Friday, as it stands now..