wolfie09

I have learned not to stress over something I can't control lol Pulaski COOP probably has less snow than anyone on this board and I don't really care...On to the next one is the way I look at it.. Only a matter of time..

Kbgm As CAA continues at 850 mb and temps fall to around -10c Monday night, lake effect snow develops downwind of Lake Ontario with northern Oneida Co seeing the band. Winds in the lower atmosphere will be shifting through the night from W to NW so the band is expected to be fairly transient and not sitting over one area for too long. Snow accumulations of 1-3 inches with isolated areas of up to 4 inches is possible in northern Oneida and an inch or less further south into the NY thruway

Oscillating bands will most likely limit totals some.

A westerly flow of colder air from late Monday through Tuesday will set the stage for lake effect snow east of the lakes. Rapidly drying air will greatly limit this potential however, despite the cold airmass. Off Lake Erie, expect a band of snow Monday evening across Southern Erie/Wyoming counties to drift farther south into the Southern Tier overnight, before weakening to light snow showers by Tuesday morning. Accumulations look minor, with a few inches possible across higher terrain. Off Lake Ontario...some upstream connection to Lake Huron may give a little boost to available moisture, but the event still looks relatively weak. Expect a band of snow to develop across the Tug Hill later Monday evening, then drift south into Oswego County by Tuesday morning before weakening by Tuesday afternoon. The Tug Hill Plateau may squeeze out marginal advisory amounts, with minor accumulations for the surrounding lower elevations. Then, later Tuesday night through Wednesday the next system will then affect the region as an upper level longwave trough pivots its axis towards the east coast and ultimately supporting a wave of low pressure to pass by to the south of the region. This wave will then trek northward in the Atlantic along the east coast. Overall, this will likely support a period of snow late Tuesday night through Wednesday night. As the low pulls off the coast of New England Wednesday night, the steadier snows will diminish, however some light lake effect snows south of Lake Ontario will be possible as 850 mb temperatures briefly cool to around -10C.

Quite the Windy day out huh? Lol Getting some added snow/graupel mixture, 35°..

Euro is pretty weak with some light snow showers...

Not the best LE model but shows a decent lake response.. Unfortunately synoptic system is a swing and a miss, Ggem agrees..

Yeah the last good December here was 2017-2018.. January is pretty much the only month with some consistency, minus 19/20 lol Can't even go by "average" since each year is so different.. Nov-march

Last 8 runs

Yup, GFS still has it but moving SE of previous runs..

Well we got our trace for today lol 35° but still sticking to the deck/grass..

GEFS individual members

Icon fwiw trended a bit more wintry..

It would be nice to finally have a cold westerly flow and get us on the board for December.. Although tonight has trace potential..lol

Another trace to add to the collection..

Well GFS still has it..

Due to the strong dynamics of this system, a convective line of showers may accompany the cold front as it tracks east of the region. There could be an enhanced wind threat if a line forms. A High Wind Watch is in effect for Chautauqua (7PM Sun-9PM Mon), Erie, Niagara, Ontario, and Genesee (8AM Mon-8PM Mon) Counties. Wind gusts of greater than 58 mph are possible during these time windows. A lesser magnitude of wind gusts are expected east of this region and further expansion of the watch or advisories may be warranted. Also, gusty winds will continue through Monday evening Along with the high winds, temperatures will be falling fast behind the cold front Monday. Highs near 50 will likely be reached in the morning across western NY and towards afternoon east of Lake Ontario. Lake effect snow showers will begin east of the Lakes as winds go from southwest to west across the region. Moisture will be decreasing Monday evening and equilibrium levels are progged to be near 5-8k east of Lake Erie and closer to 10k east of Lake Ontario. While winds will likely peak Monday afternoon, it will still be windy going into Monday evening so the combination of winds and snow showers will produce visibility restrictions on some areas. Best chance for snow showers will be across the Southern Tier and Tug Hill region Monday afternoon-Monday night. At this time, minor accumulations expected. Temperatures will fall to the low to mid 20s Monday night.

Icon has a lake response.. Looks euro like with the band heading south and then backing north ..Not the most impressive but whatev lol

GFS with a moderate event on Wednesday fwiw..

There is also a potential for lake effect snows behind the front, but this risk has diminished some since it will dry out rather quickly behind the front. Rapidly dropping temperatures Monday afternoon will change lingering precipitation over to snow by Monday evening, while winds shift from the SW to the NW. Timing of the changeover suggests most accumulating snows would be east of the lakes, mainly across higher terrain where it will benefit from upsloping and cooler temperatures. This is likely to produce at least several inches of snow across these locations, along with gusty winds Monday night.

Upgraded to a blizzard warning lol URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Honolulu HI 326 PM HST Thu Dec 2 2021 ...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS... HIZ028-031430- /O.UPG.PHFO.WS.A.0004.211204T0400Z-211205T1600Z/ /O.NEW.PHFO.BZ.W.0001.211204T0400Z-211205T1600Z/ Big Island Summits- 326 PM HST Thu Dec 2 2021 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM HST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 12 inches or more. Winds gusting over 100 mph. * WHERE...Big Island Summits. * WHEN...From 6 PM Friday to 6 AM HST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility at times, with periods of zero visibility. See the High Wind Warning that is also in effect. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strong winds will likely cause significant drifting of snow.