wolfie09

Canadian a little colder, keeping the mix line towards the NY/PA border..

Actually it's sleet and coming down pretty good..

39° here with graupel..

Definitely can't have a late game trend north or sizzlecuse will be living up to it's name lol

Mix line is close but that's usually where the best rates are..

Friday night and Saturday a mid level trough will move from the Northern Plains to the western Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a well defined baroclinic wave will develop along a stalled frontal zone in the Ohio Valley, with the resulting surface low moving into southern Pennsylvania Saturday, and then off the southern new England coast Saturday night. High pressure will build into the western Great Lakes and Ontario/Quebec at the same time, allowing a colder airmass to filter into our region as the wave passes by to our south. The majority of Friday night will be dry, with a chance of some light precipitation toward Saturday morning near the Pennsylvania state line. Saturday a shield of precipitation will overspread the area from southwest to northeast, with the greater QPF likely found from the Southern Tier into Central NY in closer proximity to the ribbon of stronger frontogenesis to the north of the surface wave track. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement now with large scale features, but differences still emerge in the finer details of thermal profiles. There will likely be a narrow stripe of modest snowfall on the northern edge of this system, and rain farther south closer to the low track, and a zone of wintry mix between. Given the inherent uncertainty at this time range, kept precip type as rain and/or snow for now.

Diving down into the specifics, a positively tilted trough axis will sprawl across the Central Plains and Upper Mid-West Friday night. Downwind of this system, across the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, zonal flow along with a corresponding jet streak will support a wave of low pressure to develop under the equatorward entrance region over the lower Ohio Valley. As the jet streak strengthens Saturday, along with the shift of the overall pattern to the east, aforementioned surface low will shift east into the Mid- Atlantic states Saturday before exiting the East Coast on Sunday. While the overall theme remains consistent, there continues to remain a few differences between track, timing and thermal profiles among model packages. Overall, expect precipitation chances to increase from southwest to northeast late Friday night and early Saturday morning, with the chances peaking during the day Saturday. Meanwhile colder air will be in the process of filtering across the Great Lakes as the aforementioned system passes by to the south of the region. That being said, there will likely be a narrow strip of at least minor accumulating snow on the northern side of this system, with rain occurring closer to the center of the low, and therefore a mix of rain and snow between the two precipitation types. The GFS continues to remain stronger and further north with the track of the low, whereas the ECMWF continues to track weaker and further south. Therefore, due to model inconsistencies the forecast caries a mix of rain and snow through the day on Saturday. By Saturday night, much colder air will have filtered in across the region with 850mb temperatures dropping towards -11C, which will support lake effect snow to develop southeast of both lakes in the areas favored by northwest flow. Upper level ridging and associated surface high pressure will begin to build in across the region Sunday night through Monday night. Initially the associated dry air will act to diminish the lake effect snow potential Sunday afternoon, with dry weather to follow for the start of the new work week.

GFS on the other hand brings the low farther north before cutting east, heavier precipitation but closer proximity to the mix line..

Euro is south and weaker with the precipitation shield but also colder..

Ukie has never really been on board..

Only"saving grace" if you can call it that, is a quick lake response on the backside.. Obviously models aren't in agreement there either..GFS has a quick shot of NW flow on the backside while Canadian brings another SW through with W/WNW enhancement..

Yeah, we know where this one is headed lol

Gefs says what snow? Lol

Kbgm Little change. Models in a little better agreement on the Friday night into Saturday system. With the fast flow surface development doesn`t get going. For now kept precipitation rain or snow but a small chance of mixed precipitation to start. Most of this event will be rain Saturday morning. Colder air comes in behind this with a weak lake effect event Saturday night into Sunday. The next system comes in Monday on the GFS and Canadian but the Euro has high pressure.

GFS with another bump north, trolls Matt..

GFS still slides the next system mainly south of us but is north of the previous run..

Kbgm This dry period will be brief as another low pressure system approaches the area late Friday night/early Saturday morning. Snow or a rain/snow mix will be possible until temperatures warm up during the daytime hours with the precipitation transitioning to just rain showers. Then as temperatures cool during the overnight, there will be a transition back to snow. The system moves east of the region Sunday resulting in drier weather. The ECMWF has an upper level ridge overhead and a deepening trough over the Central US which allows this system to track into the Northeast. The GFS also has these features but they are not as defined, so there is more zonal flow which keeps this system to the south. Due to this uncertainty, NBM was used for PoPs though they were decreased for Friday night as guidance appeared to be too high with most models fairly dry until Saturday

Not sure how outdated the LR disco is but not much mention of snow.. Although forecast shows snow-mix-snow for Friday night through Saturday night.. A trough tracking across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Saturday, will start to increase the potential for the next round of showers from Friday night into Saturday. This will occur as the sfc low with the trough tracks across the Ohio Valley to New England during the same time. With the track of the low a bit more south, the best chances for precip will be for areas closer to the NY/PA line, and then east of Lake Ontario as the system tracks NE. This scenario overall will need to be watched as guidance is split on strength of trough and placement of rain, with some suggesting much farther south of the forecast area.

Yeah euro looks similar to some previous GFS runs .But no room to breathe verbatim lol

D8-14 Slight probabilities+ anomalies

Not terrible lol With near normal probabilities..