wolfie09

The cold air really fights east of Ontario on the NAM, mix line gets to syracuse for several hours but doesn't advance north of S Oswego.. Going to be razor thin as it usually is here lol Forecast calls for snow/sleet so expecting some pingers...

Pretty close to the kbuf map..

Euro is warmer but also wetter..

Meh..lol Verbatim not bad, just to close for comfort..

Lmao Buckeyes_Suck

The combination of strong high pressure ridging across northwest Ontario seeping down into the eastern Great Lakes and the approach of the low will allow for near-surface winds to turn east and northeasterly, allowing for low-level cold air to be reinforced from the north. However, the track of the surface low will be an important factor to the low-level thermal profile across the area, especially in the vicinity of the New York State Thruway as this region looks to be the delineation line between rain/wintry mix to the south and mainly snow to the north. Confidence at this point is relatively high that the cold air will hold north of the Thruway, even through the daylight hours Saturday. This will result in a mainly snow event. For areas south of the Thruway there is a warm nose in the 5-10 kft layer where a wintry mix is initially likely before a transition to rain. The wintry mix is not excepted to be of long duration which should limit any icing to fairly light amounts of less than a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation potential will be greatest where the cold air can hold on the longest. Best potential for roadways and paved surfaces to see accumulations will be north of the Thruway, and depending on rates, could see totals in the 3-6 inch range, with the higher end of this range most likely over the higher terrain of the Tug Hill east of Lake Ontario with amounts closer to 3 inches west of Rochester, including Batavia and Buffalo. Thinking on these preliminary amounts could easily change depending on the low track which will be a big determining factor with the thermal profile.

Would be nice.

Yeah LEK that's why I don't use TT..It counts any wintry precipitation as snow, probably to keep the happy lol It also has a habit of ripping off the lake shore like we are part of the water lol

Yeah congrats lake Ontario lol If the warm tongue is under modeled we toast lol

Yeah I'll take it lol Mixing does make it to the thruway corridor but bulk of the precipitation has fallen..

Euro

D8-14

D6-10

Finally made it back into the 50s, quick downpour and breezy.. Nice night to sit outside and burn one

It's a dicey game we play lol

This also takes into account light lake effect.. Taking this into account expecting 1-3 inches of lake effect snow late Saturday night and Sunday east of Lake Erie and south/southeast of Lake Ontario from Rochester to Oswego.

GFS and NAM very similar, probably why WPC and NWS have it going through S/C NY.. Most of the damage could be done by then though..

Yup, euro came in a little colder..

Minus a warm day or two the GFS looks chilly to me lol With a bunch of northern stream disturbances..

Let's go member #20 lol Gefs still meh, with a few ok solutions.. The mean is about 2"-3", so it could be worse..

Yeah ukie is kind of a middle solution, goes east from here..

Just hit 60° here, not hating it lol Not like we have any snow to lose..