wolfie09

Decent ice with the cold air coming in, at least according to these maps lol

GFS went warmer..

Yeah same for the 3k..

Updated early this afternoon..

Rgem 18z is rain to mod snow..3"-6" for kbuf CWA..Let's see if 0z continues the trend or we revert back lol

Nam wasn't as friendly but also not far off.. Going to be a close call, especially western part of the CWA..

Take it fwiw lol

Well not much change on the euro.. Even did away with the lake response lol So did the Canadian but some guidance gfs/ukie/icon still have it fwiw..I guess we'll have to wait and see..

Well you always have the "next one" and then the "next one" again lol

Sunday morning on the GFS..Low 20s in Watertown, upper 30s/low40s in the Syracuse area..

Euro has a warm-up Tues and Wednesday.. Granted it's a week away..

Friday night and Saturday the first in a series of surface waves developing over the Ohio Valley will ripple northeastward along the slowly advancing broader surface trough...with this feature passing either over or very close to our region during Saturday...with a second and notably stronger wave then approaching our area later in the day Saturday. With a sufficiently mild airmass in place to support all liquid...increasing moisture and large-scale ascent will generally bring an increasing potential for rain throughout this 24- hour period...though the greatest probabilities for this now look to come Saturday afternoon with the approach of the second and stronger surface wave. Otherwise...unseasonably mild conditions will hang on for one more day...with highs ranging from the mid 40s across the North Country to the lower to mid 50s south of Lake Ontario. Moving on into Saturday night and Sunday...model guidance seems to be slowly converging upon a solution in which the aforementioned second and stronger wave of low pressure will track northeastward across Pennsylvania and New York State...with the 12z Canadian a notably fast outlier in bringing this system through about 9-12 hours sooner. Following a consensus more heavily weighted toward the slower guidance...widespread synoptic rains out ahead of this wave will mix with and change over to snow Saturday night and Sunday morning...though any accumulations from this currently only look to be minor and on the order of 1-2 inches. Following the passage of this wave...a northwesterly flow of much colder air (850 mb temps plunging to between -16C and -18C) will help produce accumulating lake effect snows to the southeast of the lakes Sunday afternoon and night...with these subsequently lifting northward to areas east of the lakes Monday and Monday night as the low level flow becomes more westerly. This being said...it still remains far too early to attempt to pin down the exact placement of any lake effect bands or their intensity. Lingering cold air may allow the lake snows to persist across areas east of the lakes into Tuesday morning...before increasing ridging and warm air advection helps shut this down by Tuesday night. Thereafter...generally dry and milder weather is expected for Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Looking like a small window for LES..Not really seeing a steady band, slow moving band from south to north...

Euro for the synoptic system..

We all need different setups..How often does buffalo and syracuse get crushed in the same event? I'm sure it happens but not often lol What could be trash for Dave could be treasure to me and vice versa.. That's just how it works lol

Overall GFS looks pretty good with several synoptic opportunities as well as LES behind each.. Last few runs have shown some fantasy goodies, we'll see how that looks as we get closer lol

Ukmet starts to bring in the cold during precipitation, rain -snow verbatim..More as you go N/W obviously..

As Dave would say"These models" lol Only have to wait till next weekend

GFS definitely a little better, actually some would probably be a mix-light snow.. Would be better than a washout lol

Well for those E/SE of the lakes, next best chance is some lake effect early next week before we do this all over again lol (another CF).. A northwest flow of much colder air will allow lake effect snow to develop southeast of the lakes Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. This will likely bring some potential for accumulating snow, but it remains too early to distill any details on precise band placement or intensity. Northwest flow lake effect will continue through Monday morning before boundary layer flow becomes more westerly Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. It should remain cold enough for lake effect to continue east of the lakes through Tuesday morning. 850MB temps bottom out in the -16C to -18C range Monday, supporting highs in the 20s in most locations and teens North Country. This push of cold air is very temporary however, with yet another significant warming trend developing later next week as the trough and cold air re-loads in the west.

Normally we would flip to some snow as the system moves NE but the trough is slow as balls lol And the surface low is out ahead of the trough causing southerly flow.. A series of mid level shortwaves will race ENE out ahead of the longwave trough, supporting the development of one or two significant waves of low pressure over the central Mississippi Valley.

Actually decent agreement this far out on some lake effect potential Monday/Tues timeframe..GGEM, euro,gfs, icon all have it, for now lol