Cold front slowly working southeast into the region early this
afternoon. Temperatures very gradually falling off behind the front
with temperatures now in the upper 30s across portions of the
Niagara Frontier. Cooler air coming in immediately behind the front
causing a period of locally dense fog.
Regional radars showing leading edge of incoming large area of
steady rain starting to make its way into the western Southern
Tier. Rain shield will continue to overspread the area from the
southwest through the remainder of the afternoon with all areas
south of Lake Ontario experiencing steady rain by early this
evening.
Low level cold air will continue to gradually seep southward into
the area as we work into the early part of tonight. This will allow
the rain change to a period of freezing rain. The change will
start first over the Saint Lawrence Valley/North County and
northern fringe of the Niagara Frontier this evening. As the
cold air continues to make its way southward tonight, most areas
will experience some mixed precipitation, including freezing
rain. Most areas will then change to all snow by late tonight or
early Sunday morning. Most areas will see less than a tenth of
an inch of ice with some locally slightly higher amounts
possible.
Thermal profiles are cold enough Sunday, with 850 mb temperatures
rapidly dropping down to near -10C, to support all snow. Snowfall
amounts are only expected to be in the 1-3 inch range although
localized higher amounts are possible, especially over higher
terrain and areas where some lake enhancement occurs, especially
along the south shore of Lake Ontario.
Some limited northwest flow lake effect snow will start to get
underway Sunday afternoon.