wolfie09

Off Ontario Mood flakes here most of the day so far, still coming down decent up north..

Canadian is different than the GFS, pretty much just a fropa with some weakish LES behind it..

GFS trend for Monday into Tuesday..

Mood flakes here, looks like it coming down decent in Watertown, winds at the airports still out of the west..

Looking at the hrrr and high Rez Canadian, they both back the winds overnight but a band really doesn't get going until morning.. FWIW

Well I'll take what I get, not that I necessarily agree with it lol It does fit in with CNY climo though, so we'll see.. Tonight A chance of rain and snow showers before 7pm, then snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 27. South wind 11 to 18 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Thursday A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 29. Southwest wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Thursday Night A chance of snow showers before 10pm, then snow likely after 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 21. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Friday Snow showers likely, mainly before 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 23. Light north wind becoming northwest 8 to 13 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Yeah it's the high Rez Canadian run at 2.5k.. The HRDPS not yet being equipped with its own data assimilation system, so its quality depends largely on the RDPS, which provides initial and boundary conditions, and on the global data assimilation system acting upstream. So if the forecast of the RDPS is questionable over the region of interest, it is likely that the higher resolution forecast will magnify the problems of the regional forecast. However, initial cloud and surface data are now provided by a coupled HRDPS-Caldas (Canadian Land Data Assimilation System) cycle, improving clouds, precipitation and surface fields. For forecast lead times of more than 24 hours the use of the regional or global forecasts might be required. https://weather.gc.ca/grib/grib2_HRDPS_HR_e.html

Still an eternity till that Monday event and none of the globals really agree with each other.. GFS has some northern kinks near Ontario in an otherwise westerly flow, euro at the same time has more of a W-WSW flow..One keeps the strongest part of the band to the north and the other to the south lol Just another 100 model runs to go..

Then a much colder airmass arrives Sunday Night, changing the precipitation back over to snow. This will bring the potential for more lake effect snow as cold air deepens across the region later Monday and into Tuesday with 850mb temps down to -20C or even colder. Lake snows will focus east of the lakes Monday, then shift south/southeast of the lakes by Tuesday following the passage of an arctic front. Cold air mass will support fluffy snow with ratios 20:1 or more possible. The timeframe will be limited, but this could support another round of significant snow accumulations with more lake effect headlines likely to be needed. Behind this arctic front Tuesday will be cold, with highs in the mid teens across WNY and single digits east of Lake Ontario. A brisk northerly wind accompanying this arctic front will bring wind chills well below zero for much of the region Monday Night, Tuesday east of Lake Ontario...and then again region wide later Tuesday evening.

I know it's just the GFS but definitely south compared to the last few runs for Thursday night, off Ontario..JP went from kart to Redfield verbatim..I still think Thursday night holds some interest lol

They left the door open for Thursday as some guidance is more westerly according to the NWS but aren't ready to commit to that lol

Could be decent, depends on the amount of downsloping, if any..

On Thursday, a 240 to 250 flow will keep the heaviest lake snow between Watertown and the northern slopes of the Tug Hill. Need to watch this time though as some guidance veers winds at top of convective layer more westerly to bring Tug Hill, Oswego county more into concentrated lake effect. Will not trend to strongly to this yet though. Guidance is also suggesting that an upstream connection becomes established to Lake Huron and Georgian Bay so this should help to boost snowfall rates to an inch or more an hour. The snow to water ratios will be in the teens to near 20:1 so a lighter fluffier snow will be easier to accumulate and blow around. Expect additional 6-9" of snow where bands are most persistent on Thu.

GFS lights up the lakes like a Christmas tree lol

Yeah GFS, Canadian still have some goods Monday and Tuesday, we'll see how that works out lol

Rgem is a complete whiff..To make matters worse it's restricting the lake band lol It does have some lake snows E/SE of Ontario..

Well it would be better than nothing lol Areas just outside of the main lake bands where accumulating snows could still impact travel...including western Monroe county and northern Oswego county...could eventually find themselves in Winter Weather Advisories.

Buffalo just cares about lake snows lol It will get a little more complicated across our region Thursday night...as a southern stream storm system will track from the Carolinas to the Mid Atlantic coast. The northern portion of the associated pcpn shield will likely extend across at least parts of our forecast area...while a west to southwest flow will maintain lake snows. Likely pops will be in place for most of the region with cat pops for the aforementioned lake snow areas. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Negatively tilted upper level trough axis will be placed across the lower Great Lakes Friday morning, which will support the deepening of a Miller Type A nor`easter off the coast of NYC. The trough axis will continue to push east throughout the day Friday and allow for upper level ridging to fill into its place. This will initially support general northwest flow across the region, and considering the residual moisture from the nor`easter, along with the colder temperatures (around -15C at 850mb), lake effect snow will likely continue and support some accumulations east/southeast of both lakes Friday.

Kbgm is just leaving the door open, I mean it's only a 10% chance of happening..lol Low end shows pretty much nothing and expected 2"-3"..

Yup I knew it would happen lol Instead of a slow solid band moving south Thursday night/Friday morning I get another synoptic trace lol I just can't win this year.

3k has a razor thin squall line along the front lol

Game of inches

Well for here it comes down to the synoptic event..GFS,icon and UK bring a solid band south Thursday night into Friday but the Euro and Canadian bring in some weak sauce synoptic snow, messing up the flow lol Followed by some weak NW lake effect..

Same for hurricane/Superstorm sandy.. The European model earned particular fame in 2012 when it accurately predicted Hurricane Sandy would make a hard turn into the northeast coast of the United States before the American model. .

This is obviously before the 12z runs.. Kbgm The Canadian and Euro are more in step with each other, turning the trough negative over the Ohio River Valley and developing a low off the coast of New Jersey, while the GFS begins to tilt off the Mid- Atlantic coast and does not get the low going until far off the coast. This far out, deterministic guidance can be a bit wishy washy and big run to run changes are not out of the question. The consistency over the last few runs is good but the fact the major models are not close yet introduces uncertainty in the forecast of this storm. Looking at ensemble guidance for this storm, the Euro and Canadian continue to show signals for a shovelable amount of snow Friday into Saturday. GFS ensembles break from the deterministic guidance and show signals for snow accumulations across the area during the same period. These ensemble signals give more confidence in a solution closer to the Euro and Canadian and thus the forecast during this period reflects that.