wolfie09

Yeah that was this morning, maybe the afternoon update will look different..

Looks like someone feels like an ass lol

They actually have a 12"-18" strip for extreme northern onondaga county lol

Kbuf map remains unchanged.. You can see extreme southern Jefferson in the 12"-18" zone, majority of guidance has hardly any precipitation up there besides the RGEM, we'll see if that changes this afternoon..

Part of me is thinking the rgem could be a touch to far north, high Rez Canadian is a good compromise between the 3k and rgem, keeping this area right on the edge..

Misery finally ends today..

It also complicates matters when Canadian guidance just won't budge..

The WRF models are like the boy who cried wolf lol They have been wrong/south so often it's hard to trust them but any individual event they could be right..Hard to know at this point..

Well it's almost nowcasting time as the event will start to unfold this evening.. Here is the rgem vs Hrrr as of 5am..We will know pretty quickly who is right lol Rgem wants to bring it into Oswego county quite early on..

This is how we roll .

What a cutoff on the high Rez Canadian lol Couple feet in southern Pulaski, couple inches just to the north lol I'm on the south side so hopefully that helps haha..

Hi Rez Canadian really energizes that band once the front hits and starts slowly pushing south..

Gfs12z has hardly anything over the next 10 days besides tomorrow obviously..

Yeah no problem.. It's the same source as the posted snowfall totals.. Click on Winter storm severity index.. https://www.weather.gov/bgm/winter

WPC The best forcing/lift is farther north with the eastern UP, Huron/Georgian Bay, and Lake Ontario favored for heavy LES. Inversion heights climb to 10,000 ft due to as high as 1000 J/kg of instability, snowfall rates will become intense, especially downstream of Lake Ontario streamlines make the effective fetch/additional moisture from Lakes Superior and Huron overlap with long fetch over Lake Ontario directly into orographic lift of the southern Tug Hill late tonight into Monday night. Snowfall of 1.5 to 2"/hr are the mean from the 00Z HREF over this area for at least 20 hours. While the actual single-band will waiver slightly through this time, 24"+ are likely.

Well it's quite clear we will not be getting any consensus lol We will go into the event Canadians vs Americans.. Even with the globals as the GFS is farthest south and the GGEM farthest north, Euro somewhere in-between..

D2.. At this point it's rgem or bust lol

D1

Wpc added in a chance for T-Storms..

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...For the Lake Effect Snow Warning, heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 24 inches in northern Oneida county and 6 to 16 inches in Southern Oneida county. For the Winter Weather Advisory, mixed precipitation expected. Very light snow and sleet accumulation of an inch or two in spots, ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Northern Oneida and Southern Oneida counties. * WHEN...For the Lake Effect Snow Warning, from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Tuesday. For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 4 PM EST this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible tonight and Monday. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning and evening commutes Monday. A few slick spots from freezing rain today.

Kbgm issuing some headlines.. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of less than one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze up to one tenth of an inch. Lake Effect snow begins tonight lasting through Monday with additional snow accumulation of 1 to 8 inches. The highest amounts are expected north of the Thruway. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph. * WHERE... Onondaga county. * WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions due to the wintry mix today. Where Lake Effect snow occurs, roads will become slick and snow covered in spots.

High Rez Canadian continues to bump north, closer to the rgem..Sharp cutoff just to the north though..

Even though the 3k continues to remain south, it does have a max around 40" lol

Looks good lol As expected kbuf riding Rgem with a little NAM.. Favor RGEM/NAM guidance for band placement with some mesoscale guidance appearing unrealistically south with the band given the westerly flow.