wolfie09

We'll see if the GFS follows but the icon is still suspect to me, not that it matters, it will change in 6 hours lol

I can't say for sure but I wonder if icon is chasing convection..

Breaking out the japanese as we wait haha

LR NAM

The storm lasted from January 27 to January 31, 1966, a total of 4½ days. The daily snowfall totals for Oswego are as follows. January 27, 1966: 8 inches (20 cm) January 28, 1966: 12 inches (30 cm) January 29, 1966: 11 inches (28 cm) January 30, 1966: 21 inches (53 cm) January 31, 1966: 50 inches (130 cm)

I know it's been said but nice little follow up clipper.. Now if the clipper goes to far north, southerly wind could cause some rain showers to mix in.. Obviously not at that at point yet lol

Here is the full disco WIDESPREAD Heavy Snowfall Possible Sunday Night and Monday... High pressure will move off the New England coast Sunday, with a ridge extending back into the eastern Great Lakes. This will bring a dry day, with temperatures trending milder after a cold start. Our attention then turns to a potential significant synoptic system. The 00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF are in very good agreement overall with the longwave pattern evolution and synoptic scale details. Despite the agreement in deterministic models, ensembles still show some typical spread. The 00Z GEM ensemble mean is much closer to the deterministic runs, while the 00Z GEFS is still farther east and weaker. The deterministic runs continue to show a low track that is farther west than climatology. East coast systems typically track along the coast and close to the coastal front, but in THIS case the strong synoptic scale dynamics may overcome that trend and force the low track farther west and well inland across the Mid Atlantic and PA. One big reason for this can be blamed on a large sfc high that will precede the storm...with the high moving off the New England coast and blocking a more typical storm track up the coast. Nor`easters usually run up the coast ahead of the Canadian high...but the timing is such that the sfc high will force the storm system inland and up the coastal plain. Storms of this nature have a history of generating widespread snow throughout all of western and north central New York. Similar sfc patterns occurred with the following storms: 2/13/93, 12/29/97, 1/12/96, 2/23/98, 12/11/92 and 2/12/85. The upper level system that will force this system was still over the Pacific Ocean for the 00Z guidance suite, but will move onshore today in the Pacific Northwest and will be better sampled by the radiosonde network and aircraft soundings from this point forward, which should continue to promote converging model solutions and increasing forecast confidence over the next day or two. Increased the POPS to likely for later Sunday night through Monday given the agreement in deterministic runs. If the deterministic and ensemble models continue to support this solution, there may be a widespread, impactful snow event late Sunday night through Monday. Following this system, expect some wrap around snow showers and at least some limited lake effect east/southeast of the lakes Monday night into Tuesday. A clipper system will then cross the Great Lakes Tuesday night and Wednesday with a chance of more snow.

Gonna need some luck to be under that deform band lol

Yeah that's an awesome track lol Yet to see one though haha

Ukie

Well this was posted earlier by BGM Blizz Given the amount of convection showing up in the models, and the streaky nature of the 6 hour QPF in the global deterministic , means that strong, deep convection is probable. Latent heat release helps build the upstream ridge and the higher resolution of the deterministic runs will calculate that better than the Ensembles.

Thanks tombo

Icon is SE

Pre game NAM fwiw, which is not much at this juncture lol

A saturated, west-southwest low-level flow just south of a frontal boundary has led to drizzle and freezing drizzle east of Lake Ontario this evening. Saturation below the snow growth zone with cloud tops of -11C has led to little observed snowfall in the area. Moderate to heavy freezing drizzle has been reported this evening on the western edges of the Tug Hill Plateau. With the exception of the immediate Lake Ontario shoreline, the North Country is below freezing and will stay below freezing tonight. Ice accumulations of a few hundredths of an inch are likely. Fcst soundings show upstream moisture should change freezing drizzle back to snow late tonight. A wavy frontal boundary over southern Ontario will drift south across Lake Ontario overnight before becoming stalled over the lake as we head through Thursday. A west to southwest flow of lake enhanced moisture will be found over our region during this period. This will not only keep our region shrouded under a wealth of clouds but will support some nuisance snow...mainly northeast of both lakes.

Cold most be coming in from the west as I have some sleet with mangled flakes, maybe some raindrops mixed in as well.. Forecast to change over to snow with"around one inch" expected lol

Both the 00z ECMWF and CMC (and the new 12z runs) are a little closer to the ensembles and thus a preferred starting point for the WPC forecast at this time. This led to a surface low over southern New Jersey which is pretty close to previous WPC continuity. It should, however, be stressed that the energy leading to this potent shortwave is still out in the Pacific Ocean at this time thus, data sampling is poor. As the energy reaches the Northwest U.S. and encounters more observations, additional shifts (potentially large) in the models are likely.

We take (might be a little before the storm).

Going to be dry slot issues with that type of track..We get hit pretty good either way..

Icon goes boom..

As of right now no mixing Sunday Night A chance of snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14. Chance of precipitation is 50%. M.L.King Day Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Monday Night Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 60%.