Our attention then turns to a potential significant synoptic system.
Several days ago there were a few operational runs which showed a
potential synoptic system this weekend, but subsequent runs trended
south and much weaker. The past few runs have now latched back onto
this system, which now is forecast to take a more circuitous route
through the southeast states and then up the east coast, arriving
somewhere in the northeast quadrant of the nation Sunday night and
Monday.
The 00Z GFS and Global GEM continue to suggest a system tracking far
enough inland to have significant impacts in our region, while the
ECMWF is farther east and closer to a more climatological track for
a Nor`Easter. The 00Z GEFS show a good amount of spread in possible
solutions, to be expected at this time range. A majority cluster of
the GEFS suggest a track farther east than the 00Z GFS/GEM. The
system that will result in this potential Nor`Easter is still in the
middle of the data sparse Pacific, so any individual model run
should be taken with a grain of salt at this time range. Given the
uncertainty, increased POPS a little for late Sunday night and
Monday, but still in the chance range. Some limited lake effect will
then develop Monday night and Tuesday east/southeast of the lakes in
the wake of this system.