wolfie09

I think it's a glitch TBH..

From what I can see mid levels look fine, not sure what PW problem is lol

Ouch must have some mixing..

Ukie precipitation

Yeah it would be nice wouldn't it? Lol Not necessarily buying it at the moment..

Yeah trended towards the euro with that feature..

From what I can see the 925s are the most marginal for CNY, obviously could be some sneaky layers in there..

Lake Ontario always stealing my snow..

Nice! -10 here this morning just to your NW, tonight is expected to be a couple degrees colder..

Icon 10-1

Yes sir.. Yes sir

Hi Rez Nam brother.. I think it was more about the cold air damming.. he preferred high-res guidance of the NAM, which usually better handles surface wedge setups (CAD) like this, is a bit stronger with the cold surface layer

...Southern Appalachians through the Interior Northeast... Days 1-3... A significant to major winter storm is expected to develop today and then lift up the coast through Tuesday morning. The primary low will develop near the Gulf Coast later today before lifting northeast just inland from the coast on Sunday, and then likely lifting west of I-95 Monday into southern Canada. This low will likely deepen rapidly as it ejects northward in response to a favorable and intensifying coupled jet structure and steady height falls/mid-level divergence associated with the closed low. Precipitation will become widespread and heavy as impressive warm and moist advection produces IVT above the 90th percentile, combined with a robust theta-e ridge which will wrap into an intense TROWAL. Pronounced 290K isentropic ascent will aid the deep layer ascent, with local upslope mechanisms further providing lift. Together, this suggests the entire east coast from SC to Maine will experience heavy precipitation, with snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain all likely. The guidance has shown a subtle shift westward tonight, likely due to the further south track of the mid-level low pulling the surface wave back inland. At the same time, the preferred high-res guidance of the NAM, which usually better handles surface wedge setups (CAD) like this, is a bit stronger with the cold surface layer. With impressive 850mb LLJ within the WAA spreading inland, this will likely produce a major ice storm across the Piedmont of the Carolinas, where WPC probabilities for 0.25" are above 70%. Some guidance suggests freezing rain accretions could reach 0.75", but accretion efficiency should be quite low due to heavy rain rates, and the WSE and NBM 90th percentiles are both at or below 0.5". Still, significant and damaging ice is likely here. With the further west and subtly warmer solutions tonight, freezing rain is also becoming more of a concern across the Mid-Atlantic and as far north as the Catskills and Litchfield Hills of CT, but WPC probabilities for 0.1" of freezing rain as less than 10%. Northwest of the freezing rain, a large swath of heavy snow is expected from the Southern Appalachians through the Laurel Highlands of PA D1-2. In the terrain, the column will remain cold enough for snow, and as isentropic upglide becomes influenced by upslope ascent, snowfall will likely be prolific despite modest SLRs. WPC probabilities for more than 6 inches are above 70% in this region, with local maxima over 12" likely, highest in the NC mountains. North and west of the terrain, synoptic forcing will be most impressive, and a deformation axis characterized by impressive mid-level fgen and -EPV will produce heavy snowfall rates which may reach 2"/hr. The guidance continues to track slightly west with this axis, but confidence is high in a region of heavy snow and significant accumulations. WPC probabilities for 6+ inches are above 70% D2 in western PA and far western NY, reaching more than 80% into Upstate NY D3. Many locations within this band will likely receive more than 12 inches of snowfall. Further east the forecast is less clear-cut as warm advection/isentropic snow is likely to be significant, at least at onset, but may feature a changeover to sleet, freezing rain, or rain. For the I-95 corridor from Washington, D.C. to Boston, a thump of heavy snow is likely for a few hours at onset, but total snowfall accumulations should be modest, and WPC probabilities for 2+ inches are generally 30-50%. NW of the big cities, heavier snow is likely, especially in the terrain, and WPC probabilities feature a high risk for 4+ inches in a large area from central MD through much of interior New England where locally more than 8 inches is possible in the highest terrain.

D2and3

WPC Monday morning

Considering I'm the only one here who has lived in Altmar, I would know..

Aisle 4, next to the crack..

It's counting sleet as snow.. Eventually it changes over.. I have no idea why it counts it for WNY but not CNY lol

Dave's H7 12z vs 0z

3k with a decent front end before dry slotting/light mix..But it's marginal at best lol

Rgem FTW?

I know tombo land must be below zero, sitting at 1.2° here, looks like we'll catch a back to back negative..

Here's a 10-1 posted on another board, goes out to hour 80..(Monday night) Still looks good for you guys..