wolfie09

Wpc and rgem for Saturday night/Sunday. Kbuf mentioned 20/1 SLR so it could be decent in and around bWatertown..Solid chance of a few/several inches Imby as it stands now..

Cloud cover is keeping us on the"warmer" side so far, forecast low is -11 which is going to be hard to accomplish if we don't clear out lol

Imo ambient weather stations are probably the best at that price point.. https://ambientweather.com/amws2902.html

We have had "mood" flakes for most of the afternoon, now it has become borderline"light* lol Radar picking up a little moisture off Mexico bay, down to 7° with another cold night on tap..

There`s an increasing potential for lake effect snow Saturday night into Sunday. A shortwave and an elongated surface trough extending southward from a clipper low will move across the area late Saturday night. Although synoptic moisture will be limited, it should be ample to enhance a lake response. With 850mb temperatures around - 15c there will be enough lake induced instability and the trough will raise inversion heights to about 8k which will be able to support lift in a favorable dendritic snow growth zone. This is reflected in latest model guidance, particularly the RGEM which shows a band developing northeast of the lakes late Saturday night, then dropping southward and settling east of the lakes during Sunday. Then on Sunday night, lake snows will diminish in intensity while settling southeast of the lakes due to northwesterly winds. It appears the most impressive snow amounts will be off Lake Ontario due to upstream moisture it will get from Lake Erie. Advisory amounts (3-6 inches) are likely in Jefferson county, and considering liquid water/snow ratios are likely to reach 20:1 even warning amounts greater than 7 inches cannot be ruled out. Doesn`t look quite as impressive off Lake Erie, but still could see advisory amounts Erie, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties. For the Buffalo metro area, steadiest snow would likely would come when the band drops from north to south during Saturday night. Areas not impacted by lake effect still could get some general snow showers as the trough moves through Sunday with brief bursts of snow resulting in light accumulation.

Pretty excited about this year's Superbowl halftime show.. Yes I'm a huge Stan lol

Kbgm doesn't seem to impressed with the lake effect potential on Sunday.. Though there will be very limited moisture to work with, the new cold front may manage to pick up enough Great Lakes moisture for a brief spate of dry fluffy snow showers on Sunday for Central New York, perhaps with some scattered lake effect snow showers/flurries extending into the Twin Tiers for Sunday night. Given high snow-to-liquid ratios, light dustings to an inch or so of fluffy snow accumulations could easily occur.

GFS for D5.. It's all downhill from here lol (obviously not all from this clipper)

Rgem starting to get in range..Has a solid event for the Watertown area verbatim.. Quick hitter but solid..Band is still slowly pushing south..

Rumor has it that all 3 GM finalist would be ok with Dan Quinn lol Giants may already know but haven't made it public..That ESPN transactions actually just popped up in the last day or two even though it says Jan 7th lol

Hmmm l This is ESPN transactions on January 7th lol Weird..

Icon has that feature just south of Lake Ontario and GFS is just to the north, obviously still time to figure that one out..At least something to follow besides LES lol

Rgem/Nam will start to get into better range tomorrow.. Pretty similar in the LR..

Thanks BGM Just started flurrying Imby, not expecting much tonight, GFS looks solid for Sunday, hoping for better results lol

Giants pretty much down to the final 3 for GM.. Could know by the end of the week..Then on to HC lol The Giants met with Bills assistant general manager Joe Schoen, believed to be the odds-on favorite to land the opening, on Tuesday. On Wednesday, they met again with Chiefs Executive Director of Player Personnel Ryan Poles. According to Tom Pelissero from the NFL Network, on Thursday, they will meet with 49ers assistant general manager Adam Peters.

Colder air aloft will also move in tonight, with 850mb temperatures dropping to about -17c by daybreak Thursday. By late evening it should be cold enough for a lake response. This will be best defined off Lake Ontario when a secondary front drops south across the lake late tonight. Expect a band to develop southeast of Lake Ontario tonight as this front sweeps up any available moisture. This band will quickly push south of the lake by daybreak, producing a quick burst of snow with a quick inch or two possible. After this there will not be much moisture available Thursday, with light disorganized lake snows likely southeast of Lake Ontario during the day. Expecting a total of 2-4 inches from Wayne to Oswego counties tonight and Thursday. Some light snow showers possible south of Lake Ontario from Niagara to Monroe counties with accumulation mainly an inch or less. A cold front will track across the region Sunday as a clipper system moves north of New England. Northwest flow behind the front and 850mb temperatures falling to near -14C will yield another round of lake effect snow east/southeast of the Lakes into Monday. This round will be brief as surface high pressure tracks across the central Appalachians. Both the 12z GFS and 12z EC have come to a better agreement that an area of low pressure will track near, if not across the region Monday night into Tuesday. Widespread snow is possible with lake enhancement behind it. There is still question if a southern stream feature may phase with the northern stream as they approach the east coast. Temperatures will remain below normal during the period.

I think the front is coming through now or close to it..Wind starting to pick up.. From 6° late last night to 40° currently..

Sunday is looking like a "transition" band but it still could be solid east of the lakes if it moves slow enough lol Or gets hung up a little.. A cold front pushes through the region Sunday into Sunday with 850mb temperatures getting back down close to -20C. Have a chance for lake effect snow showers across CNY, especially by afternoon (if current timing holds). The lake effect looks to start on a west-southwest flow, then drop south by Sunday night as the flow backs more northwest. Temperatures should be more seasonable on Sunday, with highs mainly 25 to 30.

Yeah was just posting that BW.. Euro overall decent, couple quick hitting fronts/LES, more of a region wide synoptic event D 6ish..

Kbuf snow map and rgem.. Not sure I agree with this yet lol With winds starting out of the west and quickly veering NW, east of the lake may not have time to catch any potential band as it may start getting better organized just to the south.. Unfortunately seems like this has happened a few times this year..

I guess these are areas of interest.. Wednesday, the surface low associated with the warm frontal passage tonight will track to the north of the region. In its journey, an associated cold front will be dragged across the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. Ahead of the incoming cold front, southwest winds will pick up across the region with up to 35mph gusts possible. Additionally, the southwest winds will further aid warmer air to advect into the region, supporting temperatures into the upper 30s to near 40. Then, Wednesday afternoon the front will cross from east to west where the lake plains will see a mix of rain and snow showers and some wet snow showers elsewhere. However, east of Lake Ontario should stay mostly snow with a couple of inches of snow will be possible. Winds will shift to the northwest as a cold front pushes southward across the area Wednesday night. 850mb temps drop from about -12c Wednesday evening to -16c daybreak Thursday. Modest lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario should enhance a bit with a band dropping south of the lake late Wednesday night. Expect this to drop 1-3 inches southeast of Lake Ontario from Wayne to Oswego counties. Shorter fetch from the northwest flow could drop 1-2 inches east of Lake Erie. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The cold pattern will continue with below normal temperatures and a chance of snow showers. An elongated trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will approach Saturday night. This will bring a chance of general snow showers Sunday, with lake effect snow showers east/southeast of the lakes late Sunday through Monday. For most locations, any snow accumulation will be light (less than 2 inches) however with 850mb temperatures around -19c any lake snow would likely have snow/water equivalent ratios in excess of 20:1. A clipper low will move across the eastern Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday. Improving model agreement on this and although QPFS are light, suspect there`s a good chance of measurable precipitation even if it will be on the light side.

I don't think it's updated yet as it says"no report".. This was updated 6pm last night..

Well buffalo is having a solid season lol According to GSA they have just under 53" on the year, around 3-4" above where they should be this time of year..

Much colder air will move into the region Thursday through the weekend. Wind chills may drop to -25F or colder late Thursday night through Friday morning, and again Friday night through Saturday morning.

Looks like most of the CoCorahs fell in the 8"-12" zone which is what the NWS had..