wolfie09

It's tough to make a forecast without the use of SR models in better range especially with banding..I'll do my call after 12z runs tomorrow lol

Yeah I'm not buying it lol Rgem has bombed on a couple synoptic events this year already.. Pretty much doesn't have a dry slot which is why I get close 2 feet verbatim lol

Yes sir

NWS nailed the forecast today, high of 4° and low of -10°, exactly what they had.. Back to 0 now with another cold night on tap.. Good luck to all..

Yeah was just posting it lol The synoptic pattern remains complex Sunday and Monday as a cutoff low over the Southeast US interacts with an incoming upper short wave over the Upper Midwest that will quickly drop southeast across the Ohio Valley Sunday morning. The interaction of these two features will be the determining factor in the track of the associated surface low and the entire system. The cutoff low is expected to fold back into the short wave and pull it slightly to the west. A warm front on the northern side of the system will usher in the initial round of precipitation with the air mass cold enough for all snow on the front end with temperatures starting out in the 20s Sunday evening. Strong forcing aloft and a weak band of mid level f-gen on the nwrn side of the low will combine with a strong influx of moisture from the Atlantic to produce a period of steady snow before midnight. Could see an initial 2 to 5 inches with this first round. This initial band of snow is expected to become oriented sw-ne across wrn NY and impact portions of the central southern tier and the wrn Finger Lakes into the overnight hours. An additional 2 to 4 inches is possible overnight. At the same time, a nose of warm air is expected to push in from the southeast, which would act to change the snow over to a mix of sleet and freezing rain, and eventually all rain for parts of the Wyoming Valley and the lower elevations of ne PA...for at least a brief period of time. The challenge with this storm system is the duration, intensity and location of this warm nose. There has recently been some concern that the warm wedge will work farther to the west than previously anticipated. The guidance has calmed down in that area (except for a few models), and is keeping the push of the warm air mainly east of Binghamton. The uncertainty with this warm nose is what has lead to the continuation of the Winter Storm Watch for most of the area. If this nose stays to the east and is relatively fleeting, then the impacts from ice (including keeping snow totals down) will be limited. However, if this warm wedge is stronger and lasts longer than anticipated there could be a lot less snow and more mix of sleet and freezing rain. We are hoping one more round of deterministic model guidance will allow for slightly better agreement about these thermal profiles before going Warning or Advisory. Another feature with this system as it evolves early Monday morning will be the development of a dry slot over ne PA and into the I-81 corridor, combined with the formation of a precip shadow that will occur due to downsloping from the strong southeast winds off the Catskills and Poconos. This feature will likely limit the amount of precipitation during the Monday morning hours. Total snow amounts will range from 9 to 12 inches in the Warning area. There is greater uncertainty in the Watch area where 5 to 9 inches is possible. The lower end of the spectrum will be impacted by the addition of mixed precipitation. The strong southeast winds will need to be watched closely as well, with the combination of the icy conditions and winds up to 40 mph possibly causing scattered power outages. The system wraps up and begins to lift n/newd out of the area during the day Monday with precipitation ending south to north through the afternoon. As this occurs though, the cold air will wrap around the backside across nrn PA into s-central NY and change the mixed precipitation back over to all snow by the late afternoon. There will also be a shift of the winds to the w/nw and an increase as well up to 30 to 40 mph. Blowing and drifting snow will be likely, especially in the areas that see mostly snow with this system.

New forecast still shows all snow.. Sunday Night Snow, mainly after 11pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 14. Southeast wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. M.L.King Day Snow. High near 30. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Monday Night Snow before 11pm, then snow showers likely after 11pm. Areas of blowing snow. Low around 12. Blustery, with a northwest wind 17 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Yeah still a couple hours till the 18z run..

12z high res Canadian

Not pretty, at least for us in CNY..

Nam still wants to torch us..

It's counting sleet as snow which it technically is but like tombo said 3-1SLR lol

It's sleet, you can see a different pink in Oneida county that is heavy snow..But it only last an hour or two, I'm sure you guys would take 1.5" liquid with a little pinging by 1 pm Monday lol But it's the LR Hrrr

Yo Matt I didn't photo shop this one.. Lol.. Obviously HRRR not useful here, banding is pretty far east verbatim..

Unfortunately not, stole it from another board lol I'll take the middle zone right over NJ/SE NY please.. Granted that would probably screw the buffalo crew so maybe a blend lol

Eps Monday morning

Monday evening on the backside..

Latest maps from WPC..

Lol.. Yeah not sure why they took down the original map that runs till 7pm Monday, this is bonus snow..

So am I.

None of us were around for this one lol No help from the lake and in march lol 58 inches (150 cm) of snow fell in Saratoga Springs, New York; 48 inches (120 cm) in Albany, New York; 45 inches (110 cm) in New Haven, Connecticut; and 22 inches (56 cm) in New York City.[

It's hard to decipher synoptic from lake effect, almost every storm has some enhancement somewhere lol Probably can find some decent ones in here.. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis

Solid forecast as it stands now.. Looks like they are going 6"-10" Sunday night for Kbuf-Kroc.. Still have yet to hit zero (-3°), forecast high is 4°.. Sunday Night Snow, mainly after 11pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 14. Southeast wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. M.L.King Day Snow. High near 30. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Monday Night Snow before 11pm, then snow showers likely after 11pm. Areas of blowing snow. Low around 12. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 100%.