wolfie09

They ran the ball on 3rd and 6 from inside the 50, I think like 40 seconds left..They definitely were content with the tie lol All the chargers had to do was stop the 3rd and 6 lol Instead they let up a big run..

This wind finder map is hardly ever wrong..It shows converging winds around lunchtime, front comes through around 7..

They have had a couple monsters lol 2004 was 86" in 3 days.. Infamous 2007

A lake effect snow band covered most of northern Oneida County. Its expected northward drift has been slow to materialize, and this may result in higher snow totals in some places, such as Camden, Lee, and Delta Lake.

I think the area that will JP will be just south of here, parish, mexico, maple view etc..The band will go through that area late this evening once again..I still yet to see much northern movement which kbgm alluded to..

Moderate to heavy lake snows remain locked in place across Oswego county late this morning...`behaving` quite well with the forecast. While the activity has become a little cellular this morning...feel that with a stronger upstream connection this afternoon...the band will consolidate a bit and push north by miles or so. This is where the RGEM has been anchoring it for several days now...and as no surprise...is where the new 12z run of the NAM takes it.

Ripping pretty good here now, wind is fierce..

Oh geez lol They actually increased totals..It better snow like 5" an hour this afternoon Today Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow before 2pm. High near 21. West wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 15 to 21 inches possible. Tonight Snow before 11pm, then snow showers likely, mainly between 11pm and midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around -5. Wind chill values as low as -15. North wind 8 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Lake induced equilibrium levels will rise to over 10K feet today as the core of coldest air aloft moves in. Synoptic scale moisture will steadily deepen, especially this afternoon and early evening with the approach of a strong shortwave. The boundary layer beneath the inversion will feature a deep favorable thermodynamic environment for large dendrites, with snow:water ratios of better than 20:1 in the band. Expect snowfall rates of 3 inches per hour within this band, especially this afternoon into this evening when there will be convergence and the greatest convective cloud depth. While this will be a very cold airmass...the deep convective depth inferred by the cap rising to 10-15kft will offer an excellent environment for charge separation. In other words...the intense band will likely become electrified. Research has shown that while a more shallow mixed phase layer (low -10c level) works against sufficient graupel production to induce a charge...there is also evidence that strong winds within a very cold airmass will lead to ice splintering/fracturing that aids in charge production. This is not contrary to electrification with moisture and silica in eruptions. The greatest chance for lightning within the band will come Monday and Monday into Monday evening when convergence will be strongest and the convective cloud depth will be the greatest. Keep in mind that such lightning is TYPICALLY within 20-25 miles of the source of instability...so it is not expected for the lightning to get as far inland as the Black River valley.

Yeah I'm thinking the rgem was to far north with the strong banding, obviously still early..I noticed the WPC has the highest probabilities of 12+ north of me now which is doubtful imo..By the time it gets there (if it does)it will be headed right back south lol Imby it has been more of a hit and miss so far..

..A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT PARTS OF JEFFERSON...OSWEGO... LEWIS...AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES... HAZARDS...A band of heavy snow which can rapidly reduce visibility to less than a quarter of a mile. This band of heavy snow is producing extremely heavy snow at the rate of 2 to 3 inches per hour. LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...a band of heavy snow was located north of Central Square and oriented west to east across the northern portion of Oswego county. This band of heavy snow will slowly drift a bit further north across Oswego county this morning. Expected snow covered roadways and difficult driving conditions, especially if traveling on I-81 from Parish to Mannsville. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... Oswego, Fulton, Sandy Island Beach State Park, Fair Haven Beach State Park, Pulaski, Central Square, Redfield, Selkirk Shores State Park, Highmarket, Mexico Point State Park, Nine Mile Point, Battle Island State Park, Hastings, Scriba, Volney, Richland, Constantia, West Monroe, Palermo and New Haven. This includes Interstate 81 between exits 32 and 40.

Pulaski south exit vs pulaski north exit..

We got a light accumulation overnight night, not sure how much at the moment, maybe a couple inches..The heart of the band is just to the south at the moment..

Wow what a chargers vs raiders game lol Whoever won was in +Pittsburgh but if they tied both got in and not Pittsburgh.. Chargers tied the the game with zero seconds left, both teams exchanged FGs in OT.. With 2 minutes left the raiders looked like they were running the clock out lol Unfortunately for the chargers they couldn't stop the run and let up a fg with 2 seconds to go.. Unreal game..

Hi Rez Canadian brings that band pretty far north, even a little north of me until the front swings it back through.. Jackpots Carol..

The main action is tomorrow, I wouldn't make it through the day without sleep, we'll call it limited..lol

Wpc like the NWS favoring the rgem..I guess I'll know when I wake up lol

This isn't lake effect yet.. This evening there will likely be scattered to numerous snow showers across much of the area, forced by DPVA, height falls, and steepening low level lapse rates as cold air pours back into the area. This will produce spotty minor accumulations, even outside lake effect areas.

Burst of snow here and windy, 29°..

WOW didn't expect this one.. Rip

WPC Great Lakes... Days 1-3... A cold front moving across the Great Lakes and into New England tonight will leave strong CAA on WNW flow in its wake. Within this intense CAA, 850mb temps will crash to -20C to -25C, while lake temperatures are still relatively warm and ice-free. This will allow for an extended period of favorable LES in the typical W/NW snow belts downwind of Lake Superior, Erie, and Ontario D1 into D2. The most intense snowfall is likely D1 east of Lake Ontario where favorable ascent into the DGZ combined with impressive instability nearing 1000 J/kg and aided by upslope into the Tug Hill Plateau will produce 2"/hr snowfall rates. WPC probabilities are high for 8 inches on D1, with locally more than 2 ft likely in the Tug Hill. Downwind of Lake Erie, generally south of Buffalo, and in the eastern U.P. of MI, WPC probabilities are moderate to high for 4 inches with locally 6-8" possible. Snowfall here will be slightly less due to less favorable ascent/DGZ depths. By D2, a second surge of CAA will drop southward behind a trailing shortwave, but this will also be accompanied by a shift to more northerly flow and dry advection. This will also be replaced quickly by approaching shortwave ridging from the SW with accompanying WAA. This will gradually wind down the LES, but an additional few inches of snow is possible on Tuesday. A third impulse and associated surface cold front will cross the area on D3 bringing renewed CAA and LES, but at this time additional snowfall amounts look modest.

Hi Rez Canada continues to follow the rgem, actually came a little north as well..Crushes the southern tug.. We'll know soon enough..

Kbuf forecast for just tonight..

I have a feeling I'll be loosing some respect for the rgem after this lol Have no clue what it is see that other models aren't..If anything the max went a little north at 18z lol

NWS not backing down as of now.. Lake Ontario... Lake induced equilibrium levels will quickly rise to around 8K feet this evening, then steadily rise to over 10K feet on Monday as the core of coldest air aloft approaches. Synoptic scale moisture will steadily deepen, especially Monday afternoon and early evening with the approach of a strong shortwave. The boundary layer beneath the inversion will feature a deep favorable thermodynamic environment for large dendrites, with snow:water ratios of better than 20:1 in the band. The depth of instability and thermal profiles suggests some thunder/lighting is possible Monday and early Monday evening. Expect a few bands of lake effect snow to develop ESE of the lake this evening across Wayne, Cayuga, and southern Oswego counties. This initial development will be more lake enhanced snow as trough induced snow showers interact with the lake. This may produce a few inches of accumulation this evening ESE of Lake Ontario. Later tonight expect a band of heavy lake effect snow to consolidate and intensify across southern Oswego County. This lake effect band will then drift north late tonight and Monday morning as boundary layer flow backs a little closer to 270 degrees. We then expect the lake effect snow to remain in place from northern Oswego to far southern Lewis counties through most of the day Monday. The forecast is strongly based on the Canadian GEM band position for Monday, with the high-res WRF and 3km NAM runs likely showing their systematic bias of being too far south with dominant single bands. The band on Monday will be intense, especially in the afternoon when snowfall rates will likely exceed 3"/hr. Early Monday evening an arctic front will cross Lake Ontario and capture the east-west oriented lake band, shoving it south and onshore along the entire south shore of the lake. This will produce a quick burst of heavy snow along the entire south shore, including the Rochester area down to about the NY Thruway. Following this burst, NW/NNW flow will force multiple bands to develop along the entire south shore of the lake overnight. The airmass becomes cold enough to force the dentritic growth zone down to near the ground, which may cut back some on snow:water ratio. Locally enhanced low level convergence near Irondequoit Bay and Mexico Bay (driven by concave lake shorelines) may produce locally better snowfall rates, including the eastern suburbs of Rochester. As far as accumulations go, we still expect a bullseye of 2+ feet focusing on northern Oswego County and the southwest corner of Lewis County, with 8-14 inches across much of the remainder of Oswego County. There will be a very sharp northern edge to the band, so there remains some uncertainty on if it will move into far southern Jefferson County. We will maintain an advisory there for now and monitor the movement of the band as the event unfolds. Farther west, expect 4-7" along the south shore of the lake in Cayuga, Wayne, and Monroe counties Monday night through Tuesday morning, and 3-5 inches in Niagara/Orleans counties.