wolfie09

That seems to be less true with the rgem and more true with the higher Rez models, IE HRW - WRF guidance.. With LES you never know though lol

I bet they are riding the RGEM which has nearly 2" of precipitation (some rain/mix)..It does spread the love out a little more, starting out SE of the lake and then backing north..

Lake Effect Snow Sunday night through Monday evening... Much colder air will move in Sunday night, with 850mb temperatures plummeting to around -15c by late Sunday evening. This is plenty cold enough to support a lake response, but moisture will initially be limited behind the cold front. However, this will change later Sunday night across Lake Ontario where most guidance shows a westerly flow with a Lake Superior/Lake Huron connection enhancing moisture. Then synoptic moisture increases as the trough digs across the region Monday before an arctic front moves through Monday night and shifts winds to the northwest. This is likely to produce significant snow accumulations across the Tug Hill and eastern Lake Ontario region. There`s a potential for this to be a major event with totals greater than two feet, however there remains uncertainty in wind direction which will determine exactly where the heavy snow falls. Model guidance is already showing the development of a strong lake effect band off Lake Ontario late Sunday night through Monday evening. This is supported by local analog composite charts for significant events east of Lake Ontario and CIPS analogs. Based on this have issued a Winter Storm Watch for the Eastern Lake Ontario region. It`s more marginal off Lake Erie, with less upstream moisture and a westerly flow not resulting in as long a fetch as it does across Lake Ontario. Even so, accumulating snows are likely, with advisory to warning amounts not out of the question across the Western Southern Tier and Boston Hills. Bitterly cold behind an Arctic Front Monday night and Tuesday... Good model agreement that an arctic front will drop southward across the area Monday night with 850mb temperatures dropping to around -25c. This will produce a burst of snows south of the lakes late Monday night into Tuesday morning with some accumulations possible. It also will bring in the coldest air mass so far this winter season with high temperatures struggling to reach the teens south of Lake Ontario with single digit highs across the North Country. This combined with a brisk northwesterly flow will result in wind chills of 15 to 25 below across the area.

Got down to -4° overnight, coldest of the season so far...

Watch issued Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 357 AM EST Sat Jan 8 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations greater than a foot possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * WHEN...From Sunday evening through late Monday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

Here is a good explanation.. Lake effect snow clouds are relatively low in the atmosphere compared to rain and especially thunderstorms. Lake effect snow cloud tops are usually no higher than 10,000 feet. Compare this to a thunderstorm that can be a tall as 50,000 feet. Weather radar starts out as a signal transmitted from the radar dome near the ground. The radar beam is shot out of the radar at a slight upward angle. This has to happen so the beam can radiate out away from the dome and so the return signals do not hit the ground at the radar site. If that happened there would be no radar image as you are used to seeing. As the radar beam travels up and out at an angle, the radar beam travels higher in the atmosphere. By the time the radar beam is 50 miles from the radar site, the radar beam is 5,000 feet up in the air. At 90 miles out the radar beam is 10,000 feet high. The low nature of lake effect snow means the weather radar beam can shoot right over the top of the lake effect snow and not “see it.” That is why you will often look out the window in the U.P. of Michigan and it is snowing hard. Then you look at a radar image, and it doesn’t show snow at your location. Snow chasers will watch the radar and never see the snow on the screen but they are surprised to learn how much fresh snow actually did fall. https://www.snowtechmagazine.com/why-does-lake-effect-snow-not-show-up-on-the-radar/

During the day on January 2nd, a storm system dove southeastward across the Front Range of the Rockies, reaching southeastern Texas late in the day. As this storm moved eastward along the northwestern Gulf Coast early on January 3rd, a new storm system developed along the east coast of Florida. These two storms combined into one storm near Georgia on the evening of January 3rd, then moved northeastward up the Atlantic Coast while rapidly intensifying. The storm system reached Nova Scotia by the morning of January 5th.

GFS is showing a decent event as well but continues to place it farther inland from the lakes.. Someone is gonna see something decent either way, as it appears now..

We have had steady snow the last couple hours or so with the occasional heavier burst..Wind has been fierce lol

Lol we'll see..I'm a bit worried about the winds as some guidance pushes the heavier snow farther inland.. Kbgm A much colder airmass will follow the cold front Sunday night, with lake effect snow likely setting up near the Thruway early Sunday evening, then shifting north towards Oneida County later in the night. This band may become rather persistent heading into Monday. Cold air and cyclonic flow will characterize the start of the period Monday morning. Persistent west flow and strong CAA with limited directional shear will likely keep lake effect focused on parts of Oneida County through most of the day Monday. A weak clipper disturbance will usher in even colder air later in the day. As winds shift from the west to northwest, the lake effect band will likely get pushed south towards the Thruway and further south, gradually weakening and transitioning into NW flow "streamers" by Tuesday morning (with some help from the Finger Lakes). High temperatures Monday afternoon will only climb a few degrees warmer than Monday morning`s lows, and will tank Monday night, with Tuesday morning`s lows in the single digits just about everywhere (maybe +10F hanging on in the Wyoming Valley), and below zero temps over much of NY east of I-81, and especially over Oneida County, despite the persistent lake effect band. The wind will be brisk as well, with Wind Chill vales dropping into the -10 to -20 range across much of the area Tuesday morning. Much of the day Tuesday will be cold, blustery, cloudy, with light snow showers and/or flurries likely extending far inland from the lakes, perhaps even into much of NE PA.

Coming down decent here, looks like some light stuff"back building", keeping it wintry at least..

Yeah it will never happen because we don't get storm tracks like that anymore..lol But it shows me all I need to know lol Winds out of the SE instead of NE (no downsloping) and backside winds westerly... Maybe one day just maybe lol

Snow has picked up quite a bit even though it won't last long.. Many of SR models had a donut hole over Oswego county which was wrong, once again rgem looked the best imo..

Forecast as of now, obviously subject to change.. Sunday Night Snow showers. Low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Monday Snow showers. High near 22. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Monday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -3. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Rgem already coming in with the runs lol The one thing for sure is it will be cold.. Temps will probably be in the teens under that band..

Light steady snow has made it just north enough to get me involved lol Rgem has a multi band)wrap around look for most of the day after this band weakens, probably won't add up to much but would keep it looking wintry..

Highest totals off Ontario.. Jefferson County... Watertown 19.6 in 0800 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter Henderson 18.0 in 0720 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter Carthage 17.0 in 0545 AM 01/07 I picked up a full 1.75" overnight lol

Steady snow here this morning..It looks like a band forming towards Matt . Rgem now in range for that Monday event, looks good as of now lol

Well the pattern on the GFS looked as it good as it can for the lakes region..I counted about 5-6 N stream disturbances and a couple S Stream as well.. Trough after trough swinging through the entire run, we'll see how that goes lol

Over a foot as of 3pm.. ...Jefferson County... Watertown 12.3 in 0258 PM 01/06 43.97N/75.91W

Buffalo updated to include tomorrow.. Pretty skeptical lol

Both Bgm and buff issued some WWA for tomorrow.. Kbgm going with 3"-5".. Kbuf 4"-8" "in most persistent lake snows"

.A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL AFFECT PARTS OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES... HAZARDS...A lake effect snow band which can rapidly reduce visibility to less than a quarter of a mile. This lake effect snow band is producing extremely heavy snow at the rate of 1 to 2 inches per hour. LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...At 142 PM EST, a lake effect snow band was near Henderson Harbor, or 12 miles southwest of Watertown and extended across Fort Drum and Carthage to Harrisville in northern Lewis county. The lake effect snow band was nearly stationary.