wolfie09

Haha nah I don't get hangovers.. Just not much to post about, this next storm is well covered and all the LES(which is what I want) is in LALA land lol Also getting ready for ND football

Back to a miss on the 12z, obviously it will flip flop..

Yeah happy New year guys.. Looks like GFS and Canadian don't have much of a storm for the 6th/7th, replaced with an extended period of lake effect..

Kbuf ice accumulation.. Not much outside the tug but enough to cause slick travel if it verified..

I apologize in advance for anything I may or may not say this evening into the overnight hours..

You can't make this stuff up..

It sure does lol

Gfs looks a bit colder..

Those maps update automatically and they lowered the"high end".."Expected" has slight change..(kbuf)..

Wow unbelievable..She was just a few weeks away from 100..RIP Betty white..

Precipitation type will become an issue starting early Saturday night, perhaps even a bit sooner as shallow low level cold air seeps southwestward down the Saint Lawrence Valley and into the North country. This will bring a period of freezing rain to Jefferson and Lewis counties, with the potential for up to a quarter inch of ice accumulation, this will necessitate the issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory for Jefferson and Lewis counties starting Saturday night. As colder air continues to seep in from the north, mixed precipitation including freezing rain will gradually work south through the area later Saturday night into early Sunday morning for most areas south of Lake Ontario, perhaps not entirely reaching the Southern Tier. The potential for some icing in these areas will continue to be highlighted in the HWO product, but may eventually need to add other portions of the area to the advisory as the event draws closer. Thermal profiles are cold enough Sunday, with 850 mb temperatures rapidly dropping down to near -10C, to support all snow. There may still be a period of mixed precipitation early Sunday closer to the Pennsylvania line, but for the most part Sunday looks to be a transition to all snow for everybody. Snowfall amounts are only expected to be in the 1-3 inch range although localized higher amounts are possible, especially over higher terrain and areas where some lake enhancement occurs. By late Sunday afternoon and certainly Sunday night...the cold air will be deep enough to support a response off the lakes. Limiting the lake snows though will be a general lack of synoptic moisture and a cap that will lower from about 7500 ft. Regardless...a few inches of lake snow can be expected southeast of both Lakes Erie and Ontario. It will certainly be colder than recent nights...as the mercury will drop into the teens over the western counties and will tumble to the single digits across the North Country. Wind chill values will be in the single digits for most areas...but will range from 5 to 10 below for much of Jefferson and Lewis counties.

TBH 2"-4" is hardly headline criteria for kbuf CWA, I think it's more of the up to two tenths of ice, which is probably why you don't see anymore advisories out right now..

You can tell joe bastardi configured the algorithm himself..

Most guidance has decent HP to the north, eventually it would hit that resistance, hopefully sooner rather than later lol

Well verbatim it transfers so winds are actually W-WNW, not that it matters lol

That's more like it..

Euro

And GFS over the same 10 day period..

Here was previous runs of the GFS/euro..So it may be possible, we'll see..Or it's all garbage fantasy lol

Not often do we see snow with a track like that lol Although some guidance has flirted with that idea..(previous run of the euro,GFS)..

As the NWS alluded to the other day, the system is running ahead of the"long wave" trough.. Until that pushes east it will be too warm.. Just have to hope it speeds up a little lol

Guidance has come into better agreement on the complex scenario for New Years night...as energy ejecting out of the base of a decoupled trough in the plains will result in a pair of sfc waves tracking from the Ohio valley across West Virginia and the Mason Dixon Line to Cape Cod. Widespread pcpn on the north side of this storm track should initially be in the form of rain over our region...but as we progress through the night...a very shallow wedge of cold air will drain southwest from the St Lawrence valley to the North country... allowing the rain to change to a period of freezing rain. As the cold air deepens towards daybreak Sunday...the freezing rain could be accompanied by some sleet and snow. The change to mixed pcpn will then take place across the western counties towards morning. There could be as much as a quarter inch of ice across parts of Jefferson and Lewis county. This will remain highlighted in the HWO product and will eventually necessitate the need for a winter wx advisory. As the aforementioned sfc waves move off the coast on Sunday... notably colder air...to the tune of -10c H85 temps...will pour south across the forecast area. This will allow mixed pcpn early in the morning to change to just snow. Snowfall amounts are only expected to range from one to three inches for most areas...but given the steady drop in temperature to sub freezing levels...there could be some ice under the snow that accumulates on area roadways. If there is an upside to this wintry mess...it will be the fact that it will come during the weekend when there should be fewer people on area roadways.

Euro came in colder..

It's like deja vu from last event lol