wolfie09

Dropped a full 2° wrt forecasted Xmas temps lol At least they added snow in the mix.. Friday Night Snow showers likely between 7pm and 1am, then rain and snow showers. Low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Christmas Day Rain and snow showers likely, becoming all rain after 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Not sure how current this is.. The long wave pattern remains generally locked into a western North America trough through the long term forecast. A broad ridge is thus centered over the Great Lakes, however weaknesses in the ridge are common and transient through the long term forecast period. Each of these weak short wave troughs that attempts to overtop the ridge will result in some form of warm advection and light precipitation chances that will trend more toward liquid than frozen with above normal temperatures through the extended forecast. While timing of each wave is not well agreed upon in the operational model runs and individual models, using a multi-model ensemble mean approach resulted in focusing PoPs on the Friday night to Saturday night period with drying thereafter.

Light snowfall forecast for Wednesday..

Euro playing the Grinch lol

Light snow on Xmas morning is better than rain lol It could continue to get weaker and be a non event for the most part.. Obviously for WNY they need a bit farther south..

This is the only event I can find the last decade or so that started Christmas eve..It dumped 65" in Redfield, 44" in Perrysburg.. The 6th storm of the 2017-2018 season was a classic long-duration significant lake effect snow event off of both Lakes Erie and Ontario. An initial synoptic low pressure system tracked across the region on Christmas Eve bringing a general 3 to 6 inches of snow. Behind this leading storm system, a broad upper-level trough extended from the northern high plains across the Great Lakes and New England, bringing a 3 day supply of cold air advection, synoptic moisture and lift in the broad cyclonic flow. Lake effect snow developed immediately on the heels of the departing synoptic system early Christmas morning and continued continuously for about 72 hours, before diminishing late in the day on Wednesday the 27th as ridging aloft finally built across the lower Great Lakes

Well at least for one run the GFS was south and weaker for Christmas..

Good radiational cooling conditions tonight, light northerly breeze, some snow on the ground and starting to clear out.. Already low teens in tombo land, single digits in the higher elevations, just hit upper teens here.. Solidifying our 1"-2" snowpack lol

Sneaky LES potential? Lol I've noticed some guidance bringing that northern stream disturbance farther south..

Merry Christmas

If I did it intentionally I would of posted this..But in all seriousness we know the models have no clue lol

We have 150 hours to try to wish this south haha..

Said your saying theres a chance? Lol Before getting washed away.. Possibly for N/NE NY..

Probably hit 50° in sizzlecuse for sizzlemas..

Nice lol Christmas Day A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Get used to it my friend lol They have even turned me negative lol

Just another run of the mill December..

Coming down really good right now with massive flakes and we know why lol Right now mix line is about 10-15 miles to the south, winds still out of the NE, temp has climbed to just above freezing (32.5°)..

You set yourself up for failure with that question lol

It's coming lol Maybe 1/2" or so on the deck, been stuck at 31.3° the last hour, flake size is pretty small with the occasional big flake..

Dewpoints rising, temps dropping, which is usually how it works lol Down to 31/29.. Little"slushiness" on the pavement..

Already coming down nice with a coating on the deck..Mix line approaching the sizzle..

Snow just started here..

Hoping for a repeat lol Nothing as of yet, 33°..

Rgem is catching on like we figured it would.. Time to nowcast anyways lol

WPC going with the warmer solution..