wolfie09

Ggem sticking with the colder/south solution similar to the rgem..

Cold air hangs tough on the GFS, at least at the BL.. This is pretty much the warmest frames..

GFS looks about the same.. Maybe a touch south at first..

3k is still in it's LR but well south of the 12k..

New map

Precipitation, forming within low level convergence within an inverted surface trough will arrive across the Southern Tier Friday Night, and expand across our region Saturday. Thermal profiles bring a nose of warm air aloft...ahead of the surface low into our region, with the NAM and its farther northward track of the surface low also the farthest northward with the nose of warm air. Though surface high pressure will be found across western Quebec it is not overly strong and will thus lean towards the NAM as models can struggle with the northward extent of the warm air...often bringing the warm nose to slow northward. This will result in mainly plain rain across the Southern Tier, with pockets of freezing rain...while snow and sleet towards the Thruway that produces a slushy coating before warmer air aloft changes the precipitation type to all rain through the afternoon hours. Farther northward the area of high pressure over western Quebec and its northerly flow will likely hold the warm nose of the warmer air aloft at bay, allowing for largely snow possibly mixing with some sleet across the North Country. Here several inches of snow could accumulate through the early evening hours Saturday.

Yeah it's all about the"thump"..Much of the precip could be over by the time we flip east of Ontario, at least I hope lol

Euro came in warmer, brings the mixing up to about here.. Decent quick thump verbatim..

Ukie jumped on board with 3"-5" for most..

Maybe slightly warmer on the GFS.. Gonna be hard not to mix..lol

It's better at first lol And it transfers, just too late..

Once upon a time, far far ago, the area would get hammered with synoptic/enhancement, must of been nice lol

Lots of ugly solutions in there lol

GFS held serve , same with the rgem which is more of a southern solution..Icon went warmer and we know what the NAM showed lol

NWS clearly going warmer than the images I posted above, 18z Saturday.. Probably just factoring in new climo, take the model output, add 3°-5° and you have yourself a good forecast lol

BL looks fine on both the GFS and Euro for 18z and 0z..(in-between hours could get a little dicey lol)

In terms of sensible weather, the majority of Friday night will be dry, with a chance of some light precipitation toward Saturday morning near the Pennsylvania state line. Though there still remains some discrepancies among the latest guidance, model soundings indicate the potential for some freezing rain on the northern end of the main precipitation shield, mainly in the Southern Tier where thermal profiles look best. Otherwise, as the precipitation shield overspreads the area from southwest to northeast, expect precip to start out as mainly snow, then changing over to a wintery mix followed by mostly rain. Precip will then change back to mostly snow in the evening as temperatures fall after sunset. There may be a small period of more moderate snowfall on the northern edge of the system before the changeover to a wintery mix. The far North Country may remain cold enough during the day to support all snow. In general, the greater QPF will likely be found from the Southern Tier into Central NY where stronger frontogenesis lies to the north of the surface wave track. Daytime highs on Saturday will be in the mid to upper 30s, with upper 20s to low 30s east of Lake Ontario.

These warm tongues need to be watched if the GFS is on to something, with the ULLs going right over the area..

Some improvements.

Through HR78 the euro is about 3 MB stronger and a little west..

Even the WPC knows lol

Ukie starting to get there.. Now we have to keep it for the next 2-3 days without any major shifts lol Either way it's looking like a modest 3"-6" event as it stands now..