wolfie09

Well the icon has a nice lake response on Monday..GFS? Says next lol

Probably a little on the old side but I think they added a bit to it lol Cold air at 850 hPa deepening -10 to -14C behind the cold front through Tuesday will set the stage for a lake effect precipitation response, with accumulating lake snows likely Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Exact placement is still uncertain at this point...but could include areas northeast of the Lakes, including Buffalo and Watertown Monday. More of a westerly flow Monday night should nudge lake snows southward across the typical snow belts. Lingering lake snows Tuesday should diminish some late in the day with a slightly drier air mass, before another system approaches Wednesday. 00Z model guidance is weaker with this wave of low pressure, lowering the risk for strong winds. However, it`s also a bit colder supporting a widespread light snow for most of the area with some lake enhancement possible.

Well here is the euro at 7pm..Looks a little south compared to what's shown above..The low level winds over Erie are basically W/WSW verbatim..

Icon has sun/Monday system traveling right over us, snow to rain verbatim, pretty nice lake response behind it..

GFS is actually pretty funny..Like Dave said, barely ever works out lol

Well the best chance to see snow in this type of pattern is behind each front, if the air is cold enough..

NHCan and ECMWF in relatively strong agreement with a cutter low tracking from the Upper Mid west on Sunday across the Lower Great Lakes Sunday night and Monday. This increasingly likely scenario would result in some widespread rain over our region that will end as snow showers Monday afternoon. Current guidance brings the system directly over our forecast area...which would limit the high wind threat. This track would only take a nudge to the north and west to change that outcome...so stay tuned. Lake snows would be possible east of both lakes on Tuesday.

Getting some decent snow shower activity, accumulating some on colder surfaces, temp just above freezing..What's funny is guidance has us mixing or plain rain as the winds veer westerly while it's snowing under a southerly flow lol Gotta love that lake..

Picked up a light accumulation overnight, maybe 1/2" or so, continues to snow light but steady, 28°...WWA issued for this evening.. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region..particularly on the Tug Hill plateau. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning commute.

You mean like this? Lol.. It's all nonsense anyway..

Buffalo new map fwiw.. Could see a light accumulation tomorrow behind the next system..

Majority of guidance also has a weaker northern stream disturbance this weekend.. Take what we can get lol

Another light event through tomorrow AM.. As a flat shortwave ridge passes overhead tonight...the flow will back just enough to send light lake snow northwards the IAG Frontier and across the Tug Hill. These snows will be accompanied by a general light snowfall that will blossom ahead of an approaching mid level disturbance. Most areas will pick up a trace to an inch although amounts up to two inches will be possible within 20 miles or so of Lk Erie. The aforementioned mid level disturbance will push a weak frontal boundary through the region on Tuesday. This will generate more snow showers with daytime accumulations averaging an inch or less

We maxed out at 32.7° for the day, snowing the best it has all day, that's not saying much..1/2" here we come lol

Could be a decent but brief lake response behind tomorrow's clipper, could be rain or snow or combination of both lol

A nice steady snow this morning, probably a few tenths of an inch..I believe that's coating#9 on the month..

Starting to see some steadier snow, temp down to 33°, starting to a bit..

Models start to develop a great bit of uncertainty to end the week and into the start of next weekend. At odds are the timing and placement of the dislodge of abnormally cold polar air. The past few weeks cold air has been building across Alaska and northern Canada. ENS and NAEFS anomalies place the 1000 to 850 hPa temperature layer across southern Alaska near -3 to -3.5 SD below normal. The 00Z ECMWF, and some of it`s ensemble members are much quicker and farther south with the dislodge of this polar airmass than the 12Z GFS model. A quicker and deeper, and colder trough carving into the central US next weekend would likely lead to the evolution of a much stronger synoptic system and then lake effect event response, than the slower and not as deep solution of the GFS. For now will lean towards NBM for Friday...with just low chance PoPs to start the first weekend of December.

Well Euro still has it..

1 day later, still intrigued, until it falls a part last minute lol

Looks like a bunch of nuisance SW over the next week or so..

Temps so far this month around average.. Pretty much guaranteed a below average month.. We are above average in the rainfall department and below average in the snowfall department..

Mixing here with ice pellets, it's a start lol

Only 9 days away..