wolfie09

HWO Rain will transition to lake effect snow behind a strong cold front Monday evening and continue through Tuesday. Several inches of accumulation are likely. We are looking at a colder airmass with forecasted temps in the mid 20s Monday night and highs in the mid 30s Tuesday..

The following year a little over 300".. .OSWEGO COUNTY... .REDFIELD.......308 INCHES .BENNETTS BRG...280 INCHES .PULASKI........248 INCHES .LACONA.........219 INCHES .PALERMO........198 INCHES .OSWEGO.........193 INCHES (CITY) .FULTON.........187 INCHES .MEXICO.........184 INCHES .MINETTO........179 INCHES .OSWEGO.........173 INCHES (SW) .SCRIBA.........172 INCHES .W. MONROE......165 INCHES .OSWEGO.........160 INCHES (EAST) .HANNIBAL.......154 INCHES .CONSTANTIA......104 INCHES

The highest number I can find is 388" but obviously some years are missing.. 2006-2007 ..OSWEGO COUNTY... .REDFIELD..... 388 INCHES .PALERMO...... 275 INCHES .PARISH....... 269 INCHES .BENNETTS BRG. 242 INCHES .MEXICO....... 227 INCHES .PULASKI...... 221 INCHES .MINETTO...... 221 INCHES .WEST MONROE.. 217 INCHES .FULTON....... 217 INCHES .SCRIBA....... 213 INCHES .CONSTANTIA... 207 INCHES .HANNIBAL..... 198 INCHES .OSWEGO SW.... 196 INCHES .OSWEGO....... 160 INCHES (CITY)

Around 260" but only 4 years of Data..Her numbers wouldn't be included in any map as of now..

Band looked like crap all night..We made it down to freezing which was a couple degrees below forecasted.. Picked up a T..Winds have been fierce, wonder if that disrupted the band..

CPC December outlook.. Equal chances of above or below average..

GFS with some decent wrap around/enhancement with the next system.. Monday, as the sfc low passes to our north it will send its cold front through the region. CAA will ramp up with temperatures quickly falling into the 30s as H850 temps drop to -7C/-9C across the eastern Great Lakes by days end. As this occurs, lake induced instability will increase with rain-snow changing over to snow with accumulating lake snows expected east and then southeast of the lake..

Decent soaker with the fropa..

Foreign models have a little more robust lake response early next week, varying wind directions..GFS is more weak NW flow..

GFS for Monday/Tues has a little snow shower activity..

Kbuf admittingly going with the higher end of the spectrum.. There also still looks to be lake-to-lake connection at this time from Lake Huron. In general advisory snow amounts of 3-6 inches are expected tonight and an advisory was issued. However, if the band locks in and persists longer than expected given the higher lake equilibrium levels and limited shear in the convective layer, it is certainly possible isolated warning amounts of 7" or more tonight could occur where westerly flow upslope is strongest on the Tug Hill Plateau. Going to leave a possible upgrade to later shifts as they can look at new data. As of right now though, should note that even the *current* forecast is on the highest end of NBM 95th percentile for snowfall and close to HREF max ensemble members. It will all depend on persistence of the band.

..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches in the most persistent lake snows. The majority of the snow will occur over the southern Tug Hill Plateau. * WHERE...Oswego county. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult with snow covered roads and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute on Friday.

Well the GFS tries lol Obviously too warm verbatim..

Well that explains it..Warm front to the SW, comes through CNY overnight followed by a CF tomorrow morning..

Only made it to 46° so far, forecast was low-mid 50s, obviously going to bust low unless we continue to warm lol

Sunday, the shortwave digging south out of the Canadian Rockies and then a second shortwave originating out of the Pacific NW begins to phase over the upper Midwest. This will be our pattern change that brings increasing chances for showers Sunday afternoon and then continues into Sunday night ahead and along a strong cold front. The cold front looks like it will exit the region Monday with CAA ramping up and lake effect developing in its wake east-southeast of both lakes. Looks like initially it will be a mix of rain-snow which quickly transitions to all snow as H850 temperatures fall to -8C/- 10C by Monday evening. Right now have favored or leaned on the Canadian-NH/ECMWF guidance from Monday evening through Tuesday which best depicts the lake effect under cyclonic NW`erly flow.

Yeah it develops much later.. Trough also more neutral, obviously different than a couple of days ago, no surprise there lol

Strong cold air advection will continue Thursday night into Friday as the upper trough slides through, allowing colder air to continue to spill out of Canada. Once the synoptic rain shield exits Thursday evening, lake effect showers will ramp up east/southeast of the lakes as 850 mb temperatures fall to -8C/-10C by Friday morning. Model soundings displaying a rather impressive environment to support lake effect potential, developing extreme over-lake instability with lake induced equilibrium levels rising to near 15K feet and lake induced CAPES to near 1000 J/kg, particularly off Lake Ontario. Stronger lake convection could certainly produce some lightning/thunder. Immediate lakeshore areas could stay a rain/snow mix, but certainly everywhere else there will be a transition over to all snow. Higher terrain east of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will likely see several inches of accumulations Thursday night and Friday morning. There is an outside chance for localized more significant accumulations. This period will need to be monitored with potential headlines needed as confidence increases. For other areas, it will again be a challenge for accumulations, particularly close to the lakeshores where it is still warmer, though where it snows hard enough, it will accumulate, as we`ve seen over the past few days. Will mention the potential for accumulating lake snows in the HWO product.

Could be a decent event for the southern tug, here we will obviously be battling rain/snow lol Still a little to early in the season..Not sure what buff sees wrt to the snow map lol

The map I posted had lowville at 119.2"(1981-2010).. Here are some numbers out of lowville.. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=buf

A near zonal flow on Saturday will transition to a highly amplified pattern by the beginning of the new work week. A vigorous shortwave digging southeast from the Canadian Rockies will be the impetus for the pattern change. The end result will be a deep closed low over the Upper Great Lakes by Monday afternoon. The stacked low will then push east across our region Monday night before moving to the St Lawrence valley on Tuesday. After experiencing little if any weather during the weekend, the above outlined scenario should provide us with some mixed to start the new work week. This will be followed by accumulating lake snows in a cold northwest flow Monday night and Tuesday. ECMWF guidance most meteorologically reasonable in the depiction of the event

Yeah I've been following him since just before I moved to Fulton, seems to be reliable..I don't know much about him though..

Yeah he's using the long-term average since 51/52, which is 117".. The 2000s we're hell of a decade lol http://www.tsforecast.com/seasonalsnowfall.html

Ts-forecast winter outlook fwiw.. http://www.tsforecast.com/snowpredictions.html